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Hi Steve..definitely risky but I felt sterling had risen too quickly hence the hkd denominated shares which I own had risen artificially high..in the past two days the usd has strengthened and the share price in Hong Kong has fallen so if the trend continues I can get back in cheaper and own more shares before ex dividend date..risky I agree but worth a try!
I sold all my shares this morning in Hong Kong. Stock price has been moving sideways past couple of weeks while the HSI has been flying..Only sterling strength has pushed up the SP in Hong Kong dollars...I'm probably wrong but I'm hoping to buy back in before ex div date at a lower price.
Thanks Steve and yes you're right there was very muted reaction to the Carillion bankruptcy. In fact I have since read that hsbc sold about USD 5B of derivatives effectively hedging a lot of these higher risk loans so most likely those that bought them are suffering losses and not hsbc...shows they did learn something from the sub prime disaster. I sense that the SP will continue to rise in HKDs while sterling rises on back of USD weakness but I also sense there is a feel good factor in Hong Kong and China about the bank which has been missing for the past decade. This could well drive the SP up quite a bit further. Some of the guys in London on the other chat forum have sold already and feel there's too much negative news out there with the Gupta scandal and recent 100m fine but I sense the Hong Kong and China investor is not bothered and will continue to accumulate. Only a view based on regular calls with brokers I talk to in Hong Kong.
Just a view but I suspect share price will rise to 88/89 HKD share and then retreat several times as it did in the 70s before eventually breaking 90...just my observation having held throughout the past two years but am thinking to sell at 88/89 and take my chances to buy back if and when it retreats..
Finally showing strength above hkd80 ...next stop 85. Strong mainland buying as well as rumors of special dividend. Perhaps some just reward for the long term shareholders who have been thru the mill the last 10 years. Lest we not forget the share price was 120 prior to the financial crisis and the bank is in far better shape today than it was then..
Chinese have been big buyers via the Hong Kong Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect....Not sure why other than the same reasons Steve summarised in his note. Need to break the key resistance level HKD80 and then could see another run up to the mid 80s as financials are being loved again after a bleak 10 years
Great relief that US is no longer pursuing the bank in relation to the Mexico laundry scandal. Investors seem to like the news and China Hong Kong connect seen large sums into hsbc. SP looks ready for a steady rally next year as interest rates rise and banks are back in favour after a 10 year drought.
Caixin CAIXIN Search Go Sections Topics Selected CX Flash Audio Latest 财新中文 Sign In Register SUBSCRIBE App Dec 07, 2017 05:48 AM FINANCE Ping An Becomes Second-Largest Shareholder in HSBC By Lin Jinbing and Han Wei Ping An Insurance has acquired a 5% stake in HSBC to become the second-biggest shareholder. Above: Ping An’s headquarters in Shanghai. Photo: CFP. Ping An Insurance has acquired a 5% stake in HSBC to become the second-biggest shareholder. Above: Ping An’s headquarters in Shanghai. Photo: CFP. China’s Ping An Insurance has acquired a 5% stake in HSBC Holdings, becoming the second-biggest shareholder of Europe’s largest bank, according to the insurer’s regulatory filing on Wednesday. Ping An’s filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange indicates that Ping An’s asset management arm has bought more than 1 billion of HSBC’s Hong Kong listed shares as of Dec. 15 through the stock connect program that links the Hong Kong and mainland bourses. The stake—5.01% precisely—was worth HK$77.5 billion ($9.9 billion) based on HSBC’s closing price on Wednesday. That puts Ping An second only to Black Rock Inc., which has a 6.99% stake in HSBC. The bank’s third-largest investor is JPMorgan Chase, which has a 4.8% stake. Ping An said the stake purchase represents a financial investment based on the bank’s strong performance and sound dividend payments. “(The investment) complies with the assets and liabilities matching principles of insurance fund investment,” Ping An said. The investment reversed the past relationship between the two companies. HSBC had been a major shareholder in Ping An, starting in 2002. But the London-based bank sold all of the 15.6% stake it held in 2012 to Thailand's Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group) for $9.38 billion. HSBC made a net profit of $2.6 billion from the decade-long investment. Ping An is China’s second-largest insurer, with total assets of 6 trillion yuan at the end of June. The company has become a financial conglomerate with business covering insurance, banking, investment and asset management. As of late June, HSBC had assets totaling $2.49 trillion, with business operations covering 60 countries and regions. HSBC’s shares closed down 1.6% to HK$76.10 in Hong Kong Wednesday, while Ping An dropped 4.2% to HK$73. Contact reporter Han Wei (weihan@caixin.com) RELATED Quick Take: Mainlanders Buying Less Insurance in Hong Kong Strengthened capital controls drive new premium income down 47% year-on-year in third quarter Fullerton, Ping An Check In to Private Clinics Insurer, Singapore’s health care firm plan to build clinics to tap affluent, aging population in top-tier cities Conglomerate Backed by Tycoon Xiao Jianhua to Cut Insurance Stakes Two companies linked to Xiao’s Tomorrow Group will sell major stakes in Huaxia Lif
http://www.fool.co.uk/company/HSBC+Holdings/?ticker=LSE-HSBA
Down 5% post results this week. If only we'd known, we could have sold at close to 80 and bought back today! Always frustrating when this happens but long term I believe we are in good place..best of luck to all others long on this site and appreciate the informative notes Steve . Always enjoy reading them
Short term seems sp has priced in this latest earnings...next break out will depend on new management's outlook ..hoping for more good news..I would still buy at these levels since this stock could move up a lot more if interest rates move up and they continue to grab market share in China.
Recent events in Beijing reinforcing the powerful Xi Xinpings hold on the leadership for the foreseeable future should also be a positive for HSBC. HSBC have a long history in China and after the big Chinese Banks are well likes by the mainland Chinese. It all bodes well for HSBC continued expansion in China.