RE: We are lower than launch and brexit hit one week later22 Sep 2023 07:34
Steph. I am not sure why you say interest rates will be coming down next year with a likely new norm of below 3%. The current noises from bankers are that current rates may increase by a further 0.25% or so before they stabilise for a significant period of time. Any fall in 2024 is likely, therefore, to be modest. I accept that these forecasts are based on current expectations of no significant change in Ukraine and no additional flare ups elsewhere, such as over Taiwan, but these things can change both dramatically and quickly. Indeed, with the current geopolitical instability around the world and a number of elections looming that look likely to increase, rather than reduce, risk it is not obvious to me why we might expect significantly more benign interest rates, or a more benign economic outlook in general, in the short term. I hope that I am being unduly pessimistic but I doubt it.