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Hey Bebeto
In jamaica in 3Q 2020 only a drill or drop decision. That wont affect share price. Then it takes a few months to organise a rig and drill well and then to test the well. Hence well result unlikely in 3Q 2020 but only in 4Q I think. Only a good well and welltest can kick up the share price. Wish I was wrong and there was some bullish news sooner to raise share price.
thanx (:o)
Does anyone have any info on when the UOG half year 2020 (jan-jun) results are due to be published?
It seems that in spite of all the good news - the share price is obstinately rigid & refusing to go up and theres still the howlingly large bid offer spread of 3-6% (2.8-3p). Several annoying factors can be responsible for this:
1) Lack of liquidity for UOG - very few shares traded
2) Being a microcap - institutions unlikely to be interested or holding shares
3) UOG seen as a risk - hence the large bid-offer spread
4) I think the only factor which will kick the share price up the arse is the half year results showing the $22Mill revenue before tax: 3060*(brent $40-$20break even)*364=$22.3Mil = 22.3/1.25= £17.8Mil / this is virtually the same as market value giving P/E of just 1 - arghh.
Hi Nth of river
Investor call boring as hell. They just summarised what was on the presentation and didnt answer my questions ( Especially my question - quote " Does UOG plan to reward its longsuffering shareholders with a maiden dividend in 2020 of at least 5%!")and avoided tricky questions.
That being said it was all good news and the new formula now is:
3060*(41.5-20)* 364 =approx $24Mil with $20/bbloe break even price = gross revenue before tax.
( Especially my question - quote " Does UOG plan to reward its longsuffering shareholders with a maiden dividend in 2020 of at least 5%!")
N1 badger. Am taking part at the investor call.
Hey Real - Im well aware of the 3060 boepd. In fact this is a list of questions I mailed yesterday to UOG for todays investor phone in at 11am today:
QUESTION
Focusing just on Abu Sennan - could you please provide answer to specific income/expenditure items described below:
A) Can you confirm that based on current 3060boepd, Brent at $41/bbl and ops cost of $6.5/bbl, Tax rate of 22.5% - UOG expects profit after tax in next 12 months as per calculation below?
3060*(41-1.5-6.5)*365* = $36.6Mil or £29.4Mil ($/£=1.25) Revenue and Profit after tax of $36.6M*(1-0.225)= $28.3 or £22.6Mil
B) Since everything seems to be financed via shares and not bank loans - can you confirm what bank interest if any is expected over next 12 months?
C) What is the NPV of the 2.97MBbls UOG reserves based on $40 (Brent of $41.5-1.5) - to be added to assets in UOG balance sheet.
D) Do you plan to reward your long-suffering shareholders with a modest maiden dividend of at least 5% in 2020?
With UOG market price of £17.6Million / the above calculation gives a P/E ratio less than 1 - which is ridiculously low.
Similar companies have P/Es of ; Hurricane 2.5, Premier Oil 3.6, Genel Energy 3.33 - hence a P/E of 3 for UOG gives 3* (£22.6M/619M) shares = 10.9p/share
Nick Cherbanich
Proud Shareholder & professional offshore mud engineeer.
One annoying thing about UOG is its lack of liquidity and hence large bid offer spread!! Have to bite my tongue not to scream and sit tight a bit longer aarrgh. Just keep reminding myself of the violent reaction to the egyptian well announcement which doubled the price to 3p and hence expect same thing on announcement (:o(
Hey Badger
Its funny how you think I dont know the difference between bopd and boepd. Look at my user name and guess my profession! My post wasnt meant to be an exhaustive financial analysis but generally emphasizing gross undervaluation of UOG stock. Financial analysis is not enough - there are other factors like Recoverable Reserves NPV which have not been shown is assets, and gut feeling which comes after 30 years of working in oil industry and speculating in oil stocks (especially small oil cos for whom a discovery has a huge share price impact). I trebled my money with PMO without much company analysis but a basic: PE, Share price, BV, A/L ratio etc etc but I knew Brent would rise very fast hence bought PMO - and now bought UOG.
Fact is that Brent will reach $50 within 2 weeks and UOG should double to 6p on expected announcement before mid july, then treble to 9p before 2021 once other discoveries are announced and more wells drilled and tested (Egypt, Italy & UK).
You can see financials over 5 years at : https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/u/united-oil-and-gas-plc-ordinary-shares-1p/financial-statements-and-reports and no income from 2015-2019.
Hey guys /need your opinion and some devils advocate input about UOG:
1) I cant find any reliable prodn rates in bbls for 2019 - or any income - just a trading loss
2) hence a 2500bopd prodn (approx 25% of 8700bopd) will give substantial income in a "few weeks" (as per press releases)
3) Ops costs claimed to be $6.5/bbl
4) Hence by my calc; 2500BPD* ($40-6.5) *365 = APPROX $30.5Million/£24Million (ignoring all other wells productions)
5( Expected P&E should be at least 4 /hence $120mil / Shares issued = 619mil hence 120/619 = 19p.
6) Various brokers expect 8.8p valn - but I think it will be higher.
7) All hell should break loose after well tests announced quote "in a few weeks" and the 2500bopd revenue "in a FEW WEEKS
CONCLUSIONS
If you see how much the share jumped just on news of the good well - then what can the market reaction be to a good max flow test and announcement that UOG has started to receive cashflow from the 2500bopd??
Think this share has potential to more than triple at present $40/bbl and more so as oilgets to $50ish within a month or so.
YOUR COMMENTS, CRITICISMS, COUNTERARGUMENTS, YOUR CALCS ETC PLS.
I´m investing my SIPP pensionfund cash here and have half my money in premier oil ever since WTI went negative and now bought 1mil shares in uog expecting an announcement any day!!
Regrettably the THREE 1Mil transactions which were at 09:36 were all sells (:o(
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