Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Once again another potential disappointment cushioned in a presentation. This share is becoming a serial disappointer now. Just when you think things are looking up. Gold continues to build a base around USD1,500 and looks promising for further rises and Centamin, having recently touched 150p manages to fall several rungs back down the ladder...lol. It's P&L forecasts were based on a gold price of USD1,250 (margin USD310 v's AISC). Now it's USD560 margin v's AISC (80% higher) and still it falls. Q1 production was 106k, Q2 118k, Q3 ? less than Q2 so 110k appx or less still ? At 110k for Q3 we will need 156k for Q4 to get to bottom end forecast of 490k which would be a Q4 record. Previous best Q4 2017 154.3k. If Q3 is less than 110k then will need even more. As hedgehogg says really testing the goodwill of shareholders now and confidence in the management remains fragile.
AIMHO of course
Oh dear, oh dear. Decided to bury my head in the sand yesterday. This share is like those 'drop tower' theme park rides where you go up very slowly then just freefall down, bounce up slowly again, and then freefall down again and the feeling you actually get is the same as the ride. I've been in this share since 2004 with a reasonable holding and for the moment it does seem like the best times are behind us. Always kick myself that I got greedy and didn't sell back in 2010 when it briefly touched £2.00 a share and some broker put out a note that it could be a takeover target at £2.50. Then we had the Arab Spring, then the court case, then strikes, fuel issues and more recently the production downgrades.The share price definitely got ahead of itself over the last month because a lot of newer/fresh investors do not properly understand the company. I think there is a lack of understanding in the profit sharing agreement, a lack of understanding how the dividend is calculated based on free cash flow which can be affected by so many factors, (this is not a utility/insurance company that you can relatively safely rely on for a stable high annual divvy yield- it is a mighty dividend player among gold miners though but its going to fluctuate wildly and the reduction in this years payout most certainly came as a shock to many), and, probably more importantly, the fact that the December 27th update explained that Q4 was going to be lower than expected due to lower than expected underground grade in December - but was still going to deliver 135 - 140 k ozs of production. This was obviously interpreted by many as a good sign that despite lower grade it was still possible to generate 137k a quarter and with improvement more still. ie circa 550k oz a year. LTH will know that Q1/Q2 production has historically been lower than Q3/Q4 production. However, in yesterday's announcement we are told that Q1 production will be 105-115k due to increased dilution from the underground which they are trying to resolve and an annual production forecast of 490-520k. The Q1 production forecast will definitely have installed doubt for the full year in many and come as a serious disappointment to many. All in all the aforementioned reasons, imho, is why the SP collapsed yesterday and fell back to the levels last seen end of Nov/early Dec 2018 - just 3 months ago.Gold was circa USD100 lower at the end of November but this did not help as once again it will be a wait and see how H1 turns out. I think fair value, based on the disappointment and dent in confidence has to be discounted more heavily until we see how the short term issues resolve themselves. For me, imho, this is around the £1 - £1.05 mark based on the current gold price. It will hopefully start to tick up as the year progresses, as long as the price of gold doesn't crapitulate and forecasted oz's are actually produced.AIMVHO of course.
Hi Rebess No I'm in Cornwall , used to be Hampshire. I just phoned the top number which is based in Jersey from - http://www.centamin.com/investors/ir-contacts IR CONTACTS Investor Relations Alexandra Carse Email: info@centamin.com Telephone: +44 (0) 1534 828700 Hope that helps.
Hi Rebess/Tibbs Did you get a reply from your e-mails re the 6th April Divi pay date from the company ? I spoke to the company IR in Jersey last week and a very lovely lady told me that the dividend would have been on Friday 31st March but that is Good Friday so it was moved back a week to Friday 6th April. I mentioned the UK tax allowance decrease etc. in the 18/19 tax year and asked why it couldn't be paid on Tues 3rd/Wedns 4th or Thurs 5th. She said it has to be on a Friday. She also said it would be brought up at an internal meeting but that the pay date was highly unlikely to change.
Results look good to me. Good control on costs and steady progress on exploration/future projects. May even make acquisitions if in line with strategic business plan. Obviously ongoing court cases continue to drag down price and may do so for some time to come it seems :( Impressed with dividend too of 10c despite v nearly being on full 50:50 profit share with Government. Gives annual yield of circa 5.5% based on 160p sp. Keep this up and will end up in High Yield portfolios...lol NOTE: Incidentally the final dividend seems to be being paid on 6th April so unless I'm mistaken it will fall in 2018 - 2019 tax year (HMRC SAIM5020/SAIM5040) which is a bummer as Div allowance is falling from 5k to 2k next tax year I think. Quite possibly wrong on this though so DYOR.