RE: Peace in our time?18 Apr 2026 15:02
Gary, Iran has been preparing for such a standoff for decades! The more recent sanctions simply made life a bit more difficult for them. But critically, they have alternatives to export oil including the Goreh-Jask Pipeline & Jask Terminal, land-based pipelines to adjacent countries, ship-to-ship (STS) transfers & "Dark Fleet" tactics (offshore Loading & mid-ocean transfers and the northern routes via the Caspian Sea (The Neka Port). Looking at your reply, you weren't aware of these options and you were putting forward the current blockade by the USA as the end game, without understanding that there were alternatives...
On the impact on the world economy of a two month blockade, it would be a "black swan" event for the global economy! Expect an energy price explosion, oil price surging to $120–$130 per barrel, with peaks of $150 per barrel being hit from time to time! Shortages in LNG and natural gas would result in catastrophic spike in electricity and heating costs, far exceeding the volatility seen during the 2022 energy crisis. With regard to the global economy ripple effect, a 60-day closure is widely considered a "recession trigger." Moddeling suggests each $10 increase in oil prices correlates with a 0.2–0.4% reduction in global GDP, so expect a global recession! With regard to inflation, transport and manufacturing costs would skyrocket. Since petroleum is a primary feedstock for plastics and fertilizers, food prices would rise globally, while the aviation and shipping industries would face massive surcharges. The "Double Chokepoint" Effect: Shipping companies would reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–15 days to transit times and millions in extra fuel and insurance costs per voyage.
The bottom line: Two months is the "tipping point." While the world can survive a week of disruption through inventory, a 60-day blockade would likely break global supply chains and force many nations into emergency rationing and a deep, synchronized recession.
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