Member Info for Steve4077

JoseMaria was sold in December with a 0.15% cut-off for $485m. They are above 12,000 ft in the Andes in Argentina (so the workers will need to acclimatize and live there), in a seismically active area with an average temperature below freezing, seven hours from the nearest town. Also not the ideal jurisdiction.

If that can work with a 0.15% cut-off, it seems likely that an open pit 150km from Sydney in an easily accessible area with existing infrastructure and a pleasant climate would probably be OK too.

Volume for the last 9 days (all down or level) was as follows (and that includes buying as well):

2.1m
1.6m
1.1m
2.2m
0.5m
2.6m
2.4m
1.7m
0.8m (today so far)

That is 15m in total trades. Even if we assume 2/3rd of that is sells, which is pessimistic, then the total sells would be 10m, or about 1.2% of total shares in issue. Hardly a significant sell-off, yet the share price has dropped about 15% in that period. Unfortunately, the MMs seem to be taking the opportunity to take the price down with minimal resistance.

This is the time when being well-researched is important. Otherwise, the falling share price and some opportunistic trolls and de-rampers are going to spread fear.

Look at the volume. The percentage of shares actually being sold is tiny.

Also, just checked the Feb post after howezap hint, LOL! At least do some minimal research before attempting to de-ramp :)

I'm replicating something I posted on Telegram this morning. Here is the RNS from First Quantum when they bought Kiwara in November 2009:
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FQM/first-quantum-minerals-to-acquire-kiwara-plc-wt9b4nhtb5qzzws.html

Here is the list of RNS from Kiwara in 2009:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/Index.aspx?searchtype=3&words=KIW

Note the total absence of any news about a deal until it happened. Our situation is different due to the pre-existing arrangement with Anglo. However, this demonstrates that CB is not telegraphing the deal beforehand. Also note there are regular updates from Kiwara in 2009 until about 2 months before the deal. In that 2 months there are only 3 RNS. Could just be a coincidence...

@ReasonMan

I'm not sure why I would require 'rose-tinted glasses' to check if someone knows anything about the company accounts before accepting their predictions about the current cash balance and need for future financing. That is just investing 101.

Rick, please could you share the financial calculation behind your prediction of dilution, including the starting cash balance, estimated drilling and operational costs, income from Manica and other Africa assets, etc.

I am sure we would all be fascinated to see it.

The other option is to transfer the non-BR assets into a new company at the point of sale. In that case, XTR is dissolved and the shareholders get some combination of AA shares, new company shares and a special dividend. That avoids any volatile movement in the XTR share price post-sale, assuming the new company is given a realistic market cap.

Officially 3% down today, but looking at the individual trades there was almost as much buying as selling and this afternoon was almost all buys. Since 1pm for example, there were 18 trades, 16 of which were obvious buys. 650k in buys and 130k in sells, yet the Ask just hovered around 4.95. Overall I think it was about 1.3m sells vs 1.1m buys.

In general, there have been some odd price movements in the last few days on low volume. MMs seems to be letting it drift down with minimal resistance.

Very intresting thread. I think this really highlights the value of a more horizontal porphyry, compared to the common vertical structure. Also the width of the deposit will make a major difference to the dead rock ratio. The same amount of copper, with the same grade, but in a vertical structure, would be worth far less.

>> Does being half way up a mountain in Colombia cost more than having to pay 4x for your labor in Australia? That's what studies are for.

In that case, I guess its a good thing we had one of those studies showing that BR was about break-even economic even with the old JORC, with about 1/7th of the likely current size of Racecourse, without even knowing about Ascot and without the potential third gold rich system.

The updated open pit model will include a lot of copper in areas that were dead rock in the original model and therefore 'free' in terms of the cost of digging them up, plus the size of the pit will be much larger. Also, most of the capital cost was in the original model so adding 5x to 10x more copper won't increase capital cost by much. Ascot is a seperate pit that will be able to use the same plant and equipment.

In other words, a very good situation for those investors that bothered to do their research.

>> What do you account for this slow painful drift down at present?

Volume is pretty low, so I suspect a combination of general market malaise, drifting copper price, and the less-researched investors selling on what they see as weak assays, or just out of fear. XTR a complex story, so while the LTH are well researched and can understand everything in context, that won't be true for all investors.

The most annoying thing is lack of funds to take advantage. The stock market is the only place where people complain about a sale :)

Another in the endless series of 'high grade' suggestions from porvenir. Yes, the grade is high but its up a mountain in Columbia. As usual, you are ignoring cost of extraction and political risk. Its not about grade. Its about value of mineral minus cost of extraction plus a risk factor. There are many, many 'high grade' deposits that never get mined. Of course, you know this because I, or someone else, explained that at least a dozen times and have never come back with any counter-argument. You just slink away and come back a few weeks later with another 'suggestion'.

I assume you are here again because SOLG is heading down once again and you are trying to make yourself feel better by de-ramping other stocks.

So, to paraphrase, the people who have been here for longest and have done the most research are the ones buying. Those without shares who have been here a week, are the people pontificating on assay results without any of the knowledge required to understand the context :)

It seems a little unlikely to batch a few weaker results together and then do a placing afterwards :)

ART - lets assume for a moment that you aren't just de-ramping. Why do you think these are 'woeful', taking into consideration the intention and location of the holes vs previous drilling rather than simply grade?

Lol - when you see a bargain so good you have to pull over immediately :)

Yes, good idea.

Surprising that all these new people are spending so much effort this morning telling how bad our investment is. Either, they are the type of people who enjoy jumping on falling shares to try to make people feel bad (possible) or they want your shares even cheaper and are simply trying to get you to sell. Given the coordinated approach, that seems a lot more likely.

They don't look too good either way.

A lot of new posters on here de-ramping today - probably a good sign :)

My inexpert take

#23 is to the NW where we already knew the copper was running out. The 0.5 g/t in interesting though.

#25 was targeting an unrelated anomaly and didn't find anything.

#29 and #34 are from the same pad to the SE of Racecourse and drilled (I think) before they realised that the Racecourse strike was changing direction. #34 just found 8m of 0.25 g/t. However, #29 is interesting. The copper grades are just above the economic cut-off, but they are a long way from the nearest hole, so they indicate that Racecourse does extend quite a bit further to the SE than previously thought, which is probably why they drilled #47 and #48 in-between

#33 is interesting due to the short interval of 15.5 gold, but was the same pad as the Ascot discovery hole, but in the opposite direction so disappointing there isn't some copper. Even so, that is a MUCH higher gold grade than anything found so far and the gold would be a surprise as it wouldn't be visible. I imagine they will put some more holes in that area.

#44 is reasonable because it means Ascot extends at least 250m to the north, even if the grades in the hole are not brilliant.

This is looks to me like an RNS intended to get out the less stellar holes in one go, rather than drip-feed them, so they don't interfere with the future news feed.