Member Info for Stebol

We will almost certainly get at least one positive RNS / news (tomorrow would be good).

As CawCaw alluded to earlier, AM will want the SP as high as possible prior to the deal completing. Whilst there is always risk I think this is about as good as it gets now in terms of risk / reward.

GL all

CawCaw, I think anything is possible but I'd go for the 'Or' option.

Hard not to see this as a positive at this stage of the game.

Still waiting, still hoping.....

Fortunately, my optimism is not based on what everyone else is doing but on the available data.

I couldn't care less about the lack of buyers just now as I'm not a trader looking for an exit. I'm happy to wait until Origin have fulfilled their commitment. In the meantime, as and when funds allow, I'll keep adding

Positive, concise, forward looking news releases are essential when you're going to need a lot of cash.

We're fully carried for whatever drilling takes place this year.

$15.5 M Cad, although not insignificant, will look like small change when we finally sell Beetaloo.

The benefit of hindsight is that it's just a stick to beat you with. I doubt anyone with a crystal ball 3/4 years ago (with the moratorium and Covid on the horizon), would have made the decisions they did had they known what was coming.

Perhaps when the wet season is over and Origin detail their plans moving forward then we might find some reasons for optimism.

I remain very confident that they'll get Kyalla flowing at a decent rate but hey, time will tell

Lovely to see.
Looking forward to next week - until then it's alcoholoclock
Very best of luck all

It's quite depressing seeing the usual crew out now.
It's pretty bloody obvious to anyone who's spent anytime here that there will be no news until after the wet season.
Todays discussion is Monty Python esqe in it's absurdity.
'Was that a shrimp, Smithers?'
'I wouldn't like to say sir'
'Damn you man - did you see a shrimp fecking with our bleddy well or not?'
'Beg pardon sir, it might have been a, a , a environmentalist dressed in a shrimp suit'
'Damn and blast the beggars Smithers.'
I mean no offence to shrimp lovers but ffs - you really think this trains going to stop rolling now, after all this time?
We've all waited years and years for a payday on Falcon.
There is no bloody way on this Gods earth that a shrimp will stop us now
My best to the usual suspects

lots of it again
lots of speculation too
The only thing shifting this to where it should be is an RNS
Until I hear something from the company then I'm just sitting tight and drinking myself stooopid.
Still confident but really, who knows.
We'll find out pretty soon.
I wish good fortune on all that have stayed the distance and kept the faith.
It'll either be great or it'll be a ****storm!

It all helps. Just a shame it's such lazy journalism

A lot of people seem to be getting into a pickle about the share price.

Those that are not are called 'long term holders' and they have a very clear idea of the future potential and are perfectly content (dare I say, blase, about the current share price), because they know, with absolute certainty, what's coming.

Then we have the impatient - not really traders but expect to make a profit overnight. Surprised, distraught, gutted when the price drops so sell and move on because YOU SAID this was a good investment.

The pond life I have no real feelings for either way. They think they're clever, they're easy to spot and, despite their best efforts, the LTH's ignore them. But, like a fly on a turd, they persist.

Anyway, the cross ramp is for those who need chilling out and need to learn a bit of patience.

I give you - Axminster Craft Cider Co - Dabinnett & Sweet Coppin medium dry cider. It's quite wonderful - a few of them and I guarantee you won't give a flying one about anything at all.

Have a great weekend all (I bloody loved the digger shots Paddy).

Market manipulations
MM games
Price dropped for big buyer
Price up as placing cleared
Bid moving up
Only xx available
Can't buy
Can't sell
NT only
etc etc etc everyday, ad infinitum - Groundhog day, everyday and a traders paradise.

There may be one or two genuine investors here but for the most part it's a bunch of two bit traders chatting amongst themselves. Amusing to watch but nothing more.

This stock will move on news, nothing else. If it's positive, we'll fly for sure. If it's not, then we will plummet as all the short termers abandon ship.

Doesn't bother me as I'm on a free ride and not emotionally attached. For what it's worth, I think AM is going to knock it out of the park at last. I've thought as much since the share price was on the floor and he did a loan to bail the company out.

For me, that was a turning point.

Anyway, however you play the markets, I wish you well and lets hope we get the news we want next week

I think they'll arrive just after a TR1 confirming Newcrest stake.

But hey, I'm guessing just like everyone else.

I still have a feeling that this may all be linked to the failure / withdrawal of resolution 5 at the AGM and the $50M loan announced the week before. Surely Newcrest would have preferred to pay us that for an equity stake as it would have further protected their position.

Idle musing only

Thanks jfhealy - I just get a bit tired sometimes of the constant cynicism. There really are a lot of positives just now.

Good luck with the horses. There's some cracking races at Leopardstown today

Really? This is the discussion now?
Just for some balance I'll list some things that have been going through my Chardonnay addled brain.
Dark days gone
Amungee discovered pre moratorium (thank you Origin)
Moratorium - couldn't plan for that financially but we're still in the game.
Covid - couldn't plan for that but we're still in the game, thanks in no small part to the deal POQ struck with Origin re the remaining wells.
Kyalla - OK, 17 hours not great but it's clearly not a dud and Origin are awaiting approval on two further 3000M horizontals (I don't think they've applied for those just on the off chance they'll find something. They have a huge amount of information from the initial vertical that we're not party to.
Velkerri is ready to go in terms of infrastructure. I think they might be back to Kyalla first though.
Government support is crucial and we seem to be getting that.
Wet season is a pain in the bo - tox but hell, we've got through everything else.
Big boys are on the ground and will undoubtedly be sniffing around. Personally, I don't think it will be Origin if Kyalla is a goer. There are bigger companies with existing links to gas / infrastructure who could step in with loose change.
What else, oh yes, Empire. Sorry, and thanks for keeping the Beetaloo 'out there', but they haven't really done much yet and will need funds sooner or later. Does their CEO play golf? Should we be wading in? No? I thought not.
POQ is the sole reason this company is still going after all the trauma. We are on the cusp, finally, of proving up the value of the Beetaloo and hopefully walking away with a big grin on our faces.
And all you can talk about are options - personally, I couldn't give a Sheeeaaat about options
As ever, best to all the believers. I also hope the doom and gloom merchants will maybe change their tune around April / May

'It just keeps growing sir. Can't you stop it?'
'Apparently not madam. It's bigger than I thought.'
'I'm not sure I can take any more'
'Well, I think you're to have to - I just can't stop it'
'Not deeper, please god no'
'Brace yourself................'

And yes, I have been on the cider. What fantastic results yet again

Trading halt on ASX re a material earn-in acquisition - possibly SFR, maybe us or Cobre, maybe another player in the Kalahari.
Either way - things appear to be warming up

Agree Hydrogen.
Origin also expecting to do 2 further 3000M horizontals here in April / May plus Velkerri is ready to drill in terms of infrastructure.
This is the best news we've had here in quite some time. I think we've been so used to delays and bad news of one sort or other that it's almost difficult to accept for some.

Hi UP
I'm somewhat confused so perhaps you can help.
Can I start by saying that I have no problem with anyone, no matter their investing style: everyone is here to make some money after all.
But, from what I can recall, you've never had a positive word to say about Falcon. Plenty of commentary about other stocks though. And you've pretty much sold now so well done.
What I don't get is why you would retain 50,000 shares to recoup your losses.
Surely this means you think the share price will rise? And, if you think you will recoup your losses with 50,000 shares, then why have you sold the rest?
Like a lot of things, this makes no sense to me .
Best of luck with the 500 baggers, I really do wish you well

I will say in advance that this is a pointless post but I've had a wee drink so please excuse me.

There's been quite a bit of criticism of Origin for some time here and in my view it's unfounded. If it hadn't been for Origin getting in quick with a notice of discovery at Amungee before the moratorium then god knows where we'd be now. That well has formed / changed Gov't opinion over the potential for decades of production in the Beetaloo Basin. It's the sole reason that shale gas now has the support of government and why they are now prepared to commit financially to it's development.
I remain optimistic with regards Kyalla simply because there are people at the sharp end with vastly more technical knowledge than me who believe in it. They are not flogging a dead horse. They are there for a reason and, ultimately, it's to make money.
I probably fall into the category of 'naive' to some investors here and that maybe so. But, our current market cap (just my view), is already underpinned by Amungee so I believe the downside is negligable. If we sold our 22.5% tomorrow it would be for a lot more than our current market cap. There are plenty of players, both in Australian and from Asia, who would love a slice of the Beetaloo.
So, flare or not on this occasion, I do believe that ultimately this will come good.
I'm kind of hoping that it will be this year as we've all waited far too long. But hey, at least the kids can have fun with it if not.
Best regards to all the long-termers especially. I appreciate your input and wish you all well

Hi T&T
In theory yes we could keep 100% of Scallywag. The issue for me is the time it would take to drill it out. Newcrest, with all of their resources have been drilling like the clappers for almost 2 years at Hav and we're still 2/3 years from mining it.
With Scallywag being potentially bigger you'd be looking at decades before any value is seen and there's also the cost of funding it.
JV is my preference, assuming results are positive (which I believe they will be).

Couldn't agree more SR.
BFS and positive news that Talaxis are arranging development funding will further reduce risk.
We still have rutile results to come and whatever might be next on other tenements
A very HNY