Member Info for StarBright

Two of DHC’s posts yesterday - the first about “...2nd homes, Luxury cars, Exotic holidays, Rolex's...”, and the second (I assume removed by moderators) threatening dissenting posters with liability and financial penalties for “tortuous (sic) interference” crossed all lines of reasonableness.

It is entirely possible to be a committed supporter of UKOG, hoping for a significant investment return, without condoning the cynical and systematic ramping of the company’s shares to an audience here that clearly contains many inexperienced investors.

For the record, I am a long term holder with an optimistic but balanced mindset. An “anti-ramper” not a “de-ramper” to borrow a description. I hope this board can be a place where differing views can be articulated and explored. Not a simple echo chamber in which self-appointed priests sing to an uncritical choir. Useful debate requires participants to respectfully consider opposing views and to recognise that cheerleading does not have the same value as critical examination.

No. SP has run ahead of news flow in the last week or so.

Not an issue for LTH’s. Just sit tight.

React positively or negatively Seadoc?

Markets react positively to new news. I don’t think that 400bopd will be new news as such. It’s been widely telegraphed, so is probably largely priced in already.

It will be a valuable confirmation and an important step along the way. But I don’t think Portland at 400 barrels will be enough to trigger a re-rate by itself.

Doubleheadedconfirmationbias wouldn’t agree, but then he won’t see this post so that won’t matter..!

Given the evident consensus here that a declaration of commerciality is highly likely (I saw a probability of 95% mentioned earlier today) then it is equally likely that a significant upside component is priced in.

Re-rates come from surprises and long shots, not from the confirmation of the widely discussed.

This board always has some great posts from posters who are well informed, experienced and insightful. They make visiting worthwhile, and provide a reason to pool knowledge and resources for common benefit - the foundation of a functional community

Unfortunately it is also home to an extraordinary volume of complete drivel. If Schlumberger/Nutech/whoever were able to report on Drivel in Place, this board would be a world-class find!

For frequent and informed visitors it's easy to differentiate between the valuable and the valueless. For the benefit of others I have put together a list, inter alia, of topics signifying high drivel content. It is likely that posts centred on any of the following can be safely disregarded:

- 1-codes
- the absolute number of shares in issue
- Brexit
- National significance
- Viewing platforms
- Brass bands
- UKOG petrol stations
- FTSE100 inclusion
- Mudskippers
- Shorters
- Tree shakes
- Tankers
- MM's "holding" the price
- Mates rates
- Buybacks
- Buys showing as sells
- Algos
- Iceberg orders
- Hunting stops
- Lambos, £1 parties etc
- The French
- Big boys
- Earthquakes
- Strokes per minute
- MACD/RSI/Fibonacci
- The price today will be closed at...
- LIFT OFF/BOOM/RRROOOOCCCCKKKETTTTTTTTT/
- The Kraken
- The $Aussie conspiracy
- Tom Winnifrith
- Surprise RNS timed to "burn the shorts"
- 10% per day
- Walked-up / down
- Weak hands
- Three sleeps
- Production company status
- Golden tickets
- ...

Oh I agree! But the idea that the PM has UKOG “up her sleeve” for Brexit is childish fantasy. It is utter drivel!

This linking of UKOG and Brexit s nothing but clueless drivel.

UKOG's crazy appeal for Little-England Brexiteers is extraordinary!

JJGazza, argus1: Recent transactions value HHDL at £30m. I find it incredible that you are trying defend JJGazza's original calculation that HH might deliver earnings of £600m+ annually.

As per my earlier post, the £638m is derived from incorrect data. Can you point us toward the Schlumberger/Nutech figure of 83bn-100bn barrels for OIP at Horse Hill?

The company could fund a buyback by doing a placement while the MM’s hold the price down to let their friends in at mates rates after a 1-code...

Am I doing this right now?

DHC - once again you are parading your lack of financial literacy. Put the shovel down!

DHC - your point on shares in issue and shorters is nonsense. The absolute number of shares in issue is irrelevant for holders of either long or short interests.

Phil7390: “Funded to end 2019, ie to production...”

I think the company has been VERY careful with their wording in this respect. They have said that they are funded to the end of 2019 “for current projects”. I don’t think that includes full commercialisation (ie multiple wellls, Octopus pads etc) of any licence area. If everything proves up as we all hope, then it is likely that additional funding will be required to fast track the development of scale production. This will be good news for LTH’s..!

“... a lot less than $100 today” not /day. Weird autocorrect.

No decimal point problems.

Your calculation leads to an earnings figure of £638m per annum. It should be obvious "by inspection" that this is way outside the boundaries of reasonableness. The whole of HHDL has just been valued at £30m! You should have spotted this.

Why are your numbers so far out? The basic problem is that you've tried to bring in the 83bn figure, and then to apply an arbitrary 5% recovery to it. The rest of your calculations are undermined by this. You have also failed completely to consider the time value of money. $100 in 30 years time is worth a lot less than $100/day - I suspect you know this.

In summary you have applied an inappropriate methodology using the wrong data, and without sense-checking either your assumptions or the output of your calculations. As a result you have arrived at some ridiculous conclusions.

Nevertheless your conclusions are popular here with those looking blindly for positive outcomes. The post about UKOG having a value of £7.5bn being a prime example!

JJGazza - I think you might want to sense-check your numbers...

Your calculation has 5% of 83bn barrels recovered over a 30year period. That's 4.15bn barrels over 30 years, or 138.3m barrels annually. That's about 450,000barrels daily. At 215 barrels per tanker that's 2,100 tankers per day.

Without being too unkind, I'm glad you are not my accountant!

In simple terms:

The deal values HH at £30m. At an industry earnings multiple of (say) 7.5x, that's £4m of earnings pa.

If earnings are (say) £40/barrel that's 100,000 barrels pa or somewhere between 300-400bopd depending your assumptions about the number of productive days pa etc.

Very back of an envelope!

...challenges around these transactions. If - through their participation in HHDL - Solo, Prim, Gunsynd were in possession of undisclosed price sensitive information (eg ongoing but incomplete testing results not yet released to the wider market) then there would have been legal/technical obstacles to the transactions we've seen.

If the fabled "commercial" RNS drops shortly, and the value of HHDL is confirmed as significantly higher than £30m as appears to be this boards general belief, then either:

- UKOG knew this and hadn't shared it with the HHDL partners, which is unlikely to go well for all sorts of reasons

or

- The HHDL partners knew the news and chose to sell their stakes at a significant undervalue (highly unlikely)

The other alternative is that there is now news either way yet, so no-one should be expecting an RNS soon.

I find this uncomfortable.

The other £90m of UKOG's mcap is clearly accounted for by their other licences...!?

It’s interesting that they’ve gone back to give Gunsynd and Primorus additional consideration for their shares. Presumably both of those companies entered freely into sale transactions at the original price? Seems rather generous to me. If the testing had gone badly, would UKOG have received a refund from these two....?

Quite unusual.