Member Info for spot1034

Yes, they continue to be traded which will be for several weeks until the deal completes. You can sell in the market now (and pay the usual fees) or you can wait for the deal to complete and you will get the full price without deductions. At the moment, the shares are trading above the price offered, which suggests some think there might be a higher bid coming from another party - so if you think this is likely it would be silly to sell yet. On the other hand, if no further bid materialises the price will drop back.

It has just been announced that Sly Bailey will step down as CEO at the end of the year.

Too late to sell as far as I'm concerned as I am so depressed by the performance of this share that I would find it very difficult to bring myself to buy back in at any lower level, and indeed there's always the chance of some corporate development such as a private equity buyout, or even an offer from a billionaire who fancies himself as a newspaper baron. Any such news might come out of the blue at any time. I simply don't understand the valuation here. I don't expect the shares to be sky high but they surely deserve to be rated better than this.

Another sizeable holding here and it is very depressing seeing what is happening. The SP has in the past picked up very rapidly on good news - in 2009 it went from around 25p to over 170p in just a few months, and whilst it might be too much to expect anything like that now, the slightest sign of an upturn in revenue - which will surely come with an improvement in the economy, even accepting that newspapers are in a long term decline - could have quite an impact on the share price. The other factor is that this looks dirt cheap as a takeover prospect, even a private equity buyout, and the lower the price drifts the more likely that someone might be tempted by the value here.

Three directors buying today including Sly herself.

A tie up with Mecom was one possibility - TNI were reported about a year ago as having explored the possibility. They now have a new CEO. However surely at these levels there is also scope for a private equity or management buyout.

If Sly were to be removed or step down, I wonder whether that might make a takeover more likely. Right now, that seems to be the only thing that might move this share up to a p/e of perhaps 3 or 4 which hardly seems too demanding.

I suspect that the fact the Finance Director has been in his job for a while, and has already flagged up the issue which probably brought the matter to a head and led to the resignation of the Chairman and CEO means that he has been through the books very carefully. Apologies for my earlier error in inadvertently turning millions into billions - I accept that if the debt was £87 billion the company would be beyond help!

£87 billion debt is very roughly equal to 80p per share which looks daunting at the present price and indeed would be a worry for any small company including the two bidders from earlier this year. However the good news is that there are several large international firms for whom servicing or paying off this debt would not be an issue, and even better, there has been much M & A activity in the sector already with these large players snapping up the smaller firms. Stripped of its debt, MCHL is an attractive operation. Six months ago it would probably have taken 180p to buy MCHL. Now, 80p for the debt and - shall we say 50p for the shares = bargain! It would look a very good deal indeed when margins start to recover in a couple of years. I can't believe none of these companies is looking at MCHL right now, and ideally we need more than one to express an interest to ensure we get the best possible price, though of-course it will be much less than we could have got six months ago if that idiot Cuthbert hadn't blocked two perfectly decent offers.

It sounds as if there has been some laxity in the past but that the new Finance Director is not allowing this to continue, so I would be surprised if there is a loss of control in that area. It really is a sorry mess, but the company is still profitable and operates in a sector where there has been much M & A activity in the past couple of years. with several large international players keen to snap up their smaller rivals. That is likely to be the way out for holders, though at a price way below that which was on offer just a few months ago.

It's very tightly held, so even small trades can move the price.

don't forget they have just been handed a wholly unexpected opportunity to increase circulation and advertising revenue due to the closure of a major competitor in the Sunday market, as well as possible further gains eleswhere due to fallout from the News International issue.

I agree with your assessment, and have just seen Kevin Maguire, the Mirror's Associate Editor, say for the third time (that I have seen) in the past few days that he is appalled by the revelations about NI and has never worked at any paper where such despicable things have gone on. You also have to look at how low these shares have been rated in recent times, and ask how much lower it is reasonable for them to go. They are a business trading on an incredibly cheap rating whose main rival is in deep trouble, and much of the trouble seems to stem from a culture that has developed within that rival, a culture which has led them to think they are above the law. I honestly don't think that other newspaper groups feel they are above the law, even if they might have broken it now and again. I still think that the overall outlook is far more positive than negative.

they definitely will launce a new Sunday, but they would be daft to do it too quickly or people will just associate it with the NOTW, for which there is a genuine feeling of revulsion. Also, who can say if a bit of this might not affect sentiments towards the Sun? All good for the competitors including TNI.

I wonder if there is anyone out there who has been mulling a bid for TNI given its low valuation, who is now thinking they'd better get a move on whilst it's still cheap.

See BLNX

on these for larger amounts. I have just tried a dummy sell on my holding of just over 8500 and was quoted 329, yet for 1000 the bid price is 396 - offer of 405 in both cases. I shan't be selling though as I still think they are good value.

it's just being re-rated to take account of the recent results, and in anticiapation of further progress this year? Plus of-course it's still cheap enough to be a decent takeover prospect.

No. of shares in issue 257,690,520 as notified in final results. You are not alone in being puzzled by the low rating which seems too pessimistic despite the challenges facing the industry. If you look at the movement in the share price over the past couple of years you will see how quickly it can move in either direction, and having seen a fall to this astonishingly low level, a bounce surely can't be far away.

In the results they said 'The strong cash generation of the business provides the Board with confidence that the Group is making progress towards the re-instatement of dividends. Nevertheless, the Board believes it prudent to maintain financial flexibility for the time being and therefore the Board is not proposing a dividend until such time that we see an improvement in the trading environment.' So nothing specific as to when, but I suspect the savaging the SP has had in recent weeks might make them keen to offer something sooner rather than later. Of-course it may be that some sort of corporate action over the next few months might make this academic, as TNI might no longer exist in its present form but will have either merged with another company or simply been taken over.