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Brent Crude prices have the potential to hit $70 per barrel over the next three months amid heightened geopolitical risks, according to analysts at Citi.

The investment bank raised its 0-3 month outlook on Brent Crude prices to $70 per barrel from $65 a barrel previously, due to upside pressure from geopolitical risks.

Early on Wednesday, Brent Crude traded 1% higher at above $66 per barrel as the market has started to price in a potential U.S. strike on Iran and the potential of supply disruptions in the region.

Net debt seen at $22 billion to $23 ⁠billion at end of fourth quarter

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Oil major BP expects to book $4 billion to $5 billion in fourth-quarter impairments, mainly tied to its low-carbon energy businesses, as it ‍redirects spending to oil and gas to boost returns under new leadership including Chair Albert Manifold.

The British company said in a ⁠trading statement on Wednesday ahead of results on February 10 that the impairments are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit, its version of net income. A spokesperson declined to say which projects were affected. New CEO Meg O'Neill will replace interim chief Carol Howle in April after Murray Auchincloss's ​abrupt exit last month as BP sought to improve its profitability and share performance which has lagged competitors like Shell in recent years.

BP CUTS BACK ON ENERGY TRANSITION BP about year ago slashed its annual spending on energy transition businesses from $7 billion to a maximum of $2 billion as it embarked on a major strategy shift back to oil and gas. It wants to sell ‍its stake in solar power group Lightsource bp, has spun off its offshore wind business into joint venture JERA Nex BP and ‌has abandoned plans to build a biofuels plant in Amsterdam. Jera Nex BP was not among winners at a British offshore wind power contract auction on Wednesday after having committed hundreds ‌of millions of dollars in 2021 with German regional utility EnBW to UK seabed rights. Jera Nex BP did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

LOWER OIL PRICES, TRADING TO WEIGH ON EARNINGS

BP warned that weaker oil trading and falling prices ‌will weigh on fourth-quarter earnings. It expects lower oil prices to reduce quarterly earnings by $200 million to $400 million while weaker gas prices could trim another $100 million to $300 ​million. European benchmark gas prices fell 9% in the period, and Brent crude < averaged $63.73 a barrel, down from $69.13 in the third quarter, as oversupply fears hit markets.

BP shares were down 1.6% by 0931 GMT versus a 0.5% dip in a broader index of European energy ⁠companies.

NET DEBT FALLING DUE TO DIVESTMENTS BP expects net debt to have dropped to $22 ‍billion–$23 billion by the end of 2025 from $26.1 billion in the third quarter, helped by divestments of about $5.3 billion, above earlier guidance. The figure excludes $6 billion from selling a majority stake in its Castrol ​lubricants unit. BP aims to cut debt to $14 billion–$18 billion by 2027. Refining margins slipped ⁠to $15.20 a barrel from $15.80 in the previous quarter. BP’s 440,000-barrel-per-day Whiting refinery in the U.S. suffered outages after an October fire, adding to earlier disruptions from flooding and a major 2024 outage.

BP also raised its expected tax rate for 2025 to 42% from 40%. (Reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Jan Harvey and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)

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More than two dozen sanctioned tankers have switched to a Russian flag since the start of December as a means of avoiding seizure by U.S. forces, Bloomberg has reported, citing data from Starboard Maritime Intelligence.

As many as 26 tankers are currently sailing under a Russian flag, compared to only six in November and 14 for the five months to November, the data showed. The switches accelerated after the United States seized the tanker Skipper off the Venezuelan coast in early December, Bloomberg noted in its report.

There are 1,500 tankers that are used to ship Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude, Bloomberg said, and of them 13% are now Russian-flagged. “This may offer a new potential solution for the illicit dark-fleet networks, but it also raises the stakes,” Charlie Brown, an adviser for an advocacy group dubbed United Against Nuclear Iran, told Bloomberg. The group tracks sanctioned tankers. “Because it underscores that sanctions evasion is no longer just a maritime compliance problem, but a strategic challenge involving state protection and geopolitical risks,” Brown said.

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BP has warned it would take an impairment charge of between $4bn and $5bn in the fourth quarter, mainly in its energy transition business.

The FTSE 100 oil major said in a trading update on Wednesday that the charges “are primarily attributable to the gas and low carbon energy segment” of its business.

BP added that it expected its oil trading result to be “weak” when it reports its fourth-quarter results.

BP last year abandoned a radical attempt to reinvent itself as a green energy company to focus on its core oil and gas business, amid investor pressure

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LONDON, ‍Jan 14 (Reuters) - BP expects to book $4 billion to $5 billion in ‍impairments in the fourth quarter, mainly related to its ⁠energy transition businesses, it said on Wednesday, while flagging weak oil trading.

The company is rerouting spending from ​lower-carbon businesses to oil and gas in a bid to improve profitability under the new leadership of Chair Albert Manifold, who ‍has said BP's portfolio needed to be simplified.

New CEO ‌Meg O'Neill will replace interim chief Carol Howle in April after ‌Murray Auchincloss's abrupt exit last month.

BP said in its Wednesday trading statement the impairments would not ‌impact underlying replacement cost profit, its version of net income. ​A spokesperson declined to give further details on which projects the impairments related to.

The company expects its ⁠oil and gas output ‍in the fourth quarter to be broadly flat compared with the ​2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per ⁠day reported in the third quarter, in line with previous expectations. (Reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Stephanie Kelly; Editing by Jan Harvey)

'If the United States takes military action, both the occupied territories and US military and shipping lanes will be our legitimate targets,' Ghalibaf said. 'Both US and Israeli military bases could be targets,' he added.

BREAKING

Donald Trump has told Iranian protestors to "take over your institutions" and "help is on the way". Meanwhile, the UK has summoned the Iranian ambassador over Tehran's crackdown, which has left 2,000 protestors feared dead. Another is due to be executed. Follow the latest.

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