Member Info for spights

Have the frying pan ready :))))))

Haha our resident short seller :))

Not a bit surprised.

The short sellers in oil will be closing or they will be burnt

A very very good morning meoryou

I am expecting it to be above £5 from the third quarter (July onwards)

Onwards and upwards:)))))

76$

Furthermore, hedge funds are concerned that OPEC+ may not fulfill their commitments regarding oil production output.

Interestingly, the physical oil market presents a different picture, as it does not exhibit the same level of bearish sentiment. Demand is expected to rise, evident in increased air travel, robust refinery utilization, and strong demand for gasoline and diesel in the US. Similar signs can also be observed in Europe and other regions. Analysts have cautioned that fuel storage levels, on the whole, are below seasonal norms. Moreover, oil producers and other industry participants have demonstrated a willingness to refrain from hedging against a potential price drop.

In the coming weeks, there is a potential for a significant shift in market sentiment towards a more bullish outlook. The continuous decline in inventories is likely to awaken the majority of market participants. Producers, with their current strategies, may even consider further production cuts if prices drop below $75 per barrel, signaling a strong bullish signal. Additionally, a resolution to the political farce surrounding Washington's debt ceiling, coupled with robust demand during the holiday season worldwide, could further bolster the bullish sentiment.

Underinvestment remains a critical concern, as emphasized by OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais. He reiterated that insufficient investment in the oil and gas sector could lead to long-term market volatility and hinder growth. At the Middle East Petroleum and Gas Conference (MEPGC) in Dubai, Al Ghais highlighted the importance of focusing on reducing greenhouse gas emissions rather than simply replacing one energy source with another. Major investments across all energy sectors are urgently needed. OPEC has consistently emphasized the requirement for $12.1 trillion in global investments to meet the long-term rise in oil demand.

The ongoing curtailment of Russian oil production due to Western sanctions poses significant risks to the market. Analysts estimate that 2-2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil production, out of the current 11 million bpd, could be at risk. The latest monthly report from the IEA suggests a potential shortage of 2 million bpd in crude oil supply in the second half of 2023. However, this estimate may already be optimistic considering the statements made by the G7 over the weekend, indicating their intent to strengthen efforts to counter Russia's evasion of price caps on its oil and fuel exports.

As soon as hedgefunds have found their footing again, a major surge back into long positions is to be expected. It takes only one large Wall Street player to turn bullish, and the other sheep will follow.

Ouch HaHa :))))))

75.90$ positive

Prices began the week with a slight after posting a modest gain last week, with Brent crude trading above $75 and WTI trading above $71.

Concerns over a potential U.S. default remain the primary bearish factor for oil markets even if the likelihood of a default remains low.

If bearish sentiment continues to build this week, Brent could post its fifth monthly loss in a row, its worst performance since 2017.

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U.S.

Crude oil prices started the week sluggishly, with the benchmarks declining slightly at the time of writing, after posting a modest gain for the previous week.

Brent crude was trading at a bit over $75 per barrel at the time of writing and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for just over $71 per barrel as demand recovery fought for traders’ attention alongside U.S. debt ceiling negotiations.

The ongoing negotiations on the U.S. debt ceiling have in recent days become the primary bearish factor for oil as fears mount that a debt default is not out of the question. If it happens, it would decimate oil demand in the United States.

If history is any indication, there will be an agreement before the federal government runs out of money and default will be avoided. Until that happens, however, oil prices are likely to remain effectively capped.

According to Bloomberg, because of such pressures, Brent crude might end up with its fifth monthly loss in a row this month, which would be the benchmark’s worst performance since 2017.

Commenting on the debt ceiling talks, one Saxo Capital analyst told Bloomberg that “Despite hopes of the talks resuming, there are risks that a deal will be delayed to the last minute.”

Meanwhile, traders are keeping an eye on China, too. "If the housing market continues to fall and policymakers fail to respond, the risk of a double-dip China slowdown increases, which spells bad news for crude oil consumption and demand," an IG analyst based in Australia told Reuters.

Yet beyond the next month or so the prospects for oil appear to be more bullish. The IEA recently forecast a deficit emerging in the second half of the year, to the tune of 2 million barrels daily. This should have a positive effect on prices unless demand gets hurt by a U.S. default or another event of similar proportions.

75.68$

74.85 Brent

Availing themselves of the lowest spot LNG prices in two years, India’s LNG buyers are seeking decades-long supply contracts to lock in volumes of liquefied natural gas, wary of future spot shortages.

- According to Bloomberg, India’s Petronet, GAIL, and Indian Oil are all in talks with LNG suppliers in the US, Qatar, and the UAE for deals that last for 20 years, a sea change in a country that hasn’t signed a long-term deal since 2021.

- According to Kpler data, India has been importing 1.98-2.00 million tonnes of LNG in April-May, the highest month-on-month readings since late 2021, with approximately 50% of imports coming from Qatar.

- India seeks to increase the utilization of natural gas from 6% of the nation’s power generation capacity to at least 12%, decreasing pollution in a coal-dominated industry.

4. Clamping Down on Corruption, Venezuela Dreams Big

Corruption

- Venezuela’s crude production has been on the increase since February and surpassed the 800,000 b/d threshold for the first time since December 2021, buoying Caracas’ hopes of an output revival.

- The anti-corruption crusade that was launched by PDVSA’s new CEO Pedro Tellechea seems to have yielded the desired results, despite the missing 21 billion in accounts receivable.

- The new corporate strategy stipulates that PDVSA is to expand crude production by 390,000 b/d by year-end to reach 1.17 million b/d, as well as boost refining by 20% to add some 100,000 b/d of fuels for the domestic market.

- The Venezuelan national oil company sees the restart of the Petromonagas oil upgrader (due to happen in June) as a key element in the production uptick, out of service since December 2022.

5. Steel Weakness Drags Coking Coal Prices Down

Steel

- Coking coal prices have been falling off the cliff lately, marking their third consecutive monthly decline in Asia, with delivered prices to China shedding almost 50% over the past two months.

- As Australian FOB prices of coking coal moved above Chinese import prices, the likelihood of seeing a resumption in flows there is low, China will most probably rely on Mongolian and Russian met coal.

- China’s steel production in April fell 3.2% month-on-month to 92.64 million tonnes, as only a quarter of Chinese steel mills remained profitable by the end of the month.

- The Chinese government has reportedly capped the annual production of its steel mills in 2023 at 1.018 billion tons, unchanged from 2022, seeking to control oversupply.

OPEC+ compliance with its collective targets keeps on worsening with the 19 members underperforming by 2.6 million b/d, just as the oil alliance prepares for its June 3-4 meeting.

- Meanwhile, OPEC+ production has edged lower to 42 million b/d as production shut-ins in Iraqi Kurdistan, industrial action at Nigerian loading terminals, and slightly lower Russian output weighed on supply.

- Simultaneously, OPEC has voiced its dissatisfaction with the IEA’s discouraging investment in the oil industry, saying these misguided narratives will only imperil economic growth and sustainable development.

- According to OPEC, the global oil industry still needs some 1.6 trillion of new investment downstream, arguing that the lack of refinery investment in OECD countries will result in further supply tightness.

2. Oil Majors Face Tough Choices Ahead Of Shareholder Meetings

Oil Majors

- With the windfall profits of oil majors remaining firmly in the public eye, most Western majors are facing troublesome annual shareholder meetings over the next two weeks, trying to fend off pressure from environmentalists.

- The annual meeting of Shell (LON:SHEL) was already disrupted last year and the 2023 version might turn even more acrimonious as the company reviews its pledge to reduce oil output by 1%-2% per year by 2030.

- ExxonMobil poured some cold water on ESG expectations, saying that society would not accept the degradation in global standards of living that would arise from the IEA’s Net Zero policy scenario, deeming the likelihood of reaching net zero by 2050 as “remote”.

- The discrepancy between the market valuation of European and US oil companies largely stems from the latter having lesser pressure from environmental activist groups.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-faces-tense-shareholder-meeting-profits-climate-collide-2023-05-18/

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Warren-Buffett-Buys-Up-Even-More-Occidental-Petroleum.html

How the US blew up the Nord stream pipelines

(Radar evidence )

You Tube

Delete May 3rd

How the .

……….

blew up the Nord stream pipeline Radar Evidence

On you tube 2 weeks ago

If you put in radar evidence on Nord stream it will come up

Dated May 3rd

US in headlines

Meoryou look at the video