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Crude oil inventories in the United States fell this week by 817,000 barrels for week ending November 24, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), after a 9.05-million-barrel rise in crude inventories in the week prior, API data showed. Analysts had expected a 2 million barrel draw.

API data shows a net build in crude oil inventories in the United States of more than 20 million barrels so far this year.

On Monday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) broke a seven week streak of status quo, rising by 300,000 barrels. Inventories are still near the 40-year low of 351.3 million barrels, with total purchases for the SPR coming in at about 4 million barrels since the Biden Administration began its buyback program.

Oil prices were trading up substantially ahead of API data release despite OPEC+ chatter that dampened the markets hopes that the group would cut production deeper at its next meeting, which is currently scheduled to take place this Thursday. At 3:40 pm ET, Brent crude was trading up 2.13% at $81.68—still $.30 per barrel short of where it was this same time last week. The U.S. benchmark WTI was trading up on the day by 2.06% at that time, at $76.40--$1 per barrel below this time last week.

Gasoline inventories also fell this week, by 898,000 barrels, on top of the 1.79 million barrel decrease in the week prior. As of last week, gasoline inventories were 2% below the five-year average for this time of year.

Distillate inventories saw the only rise this week, with a gain of 2.806 million barrels. Last week, distillates fell by 3.51 million barrels in the week prior. Distillates are roughly 13% below the five-year average.

Cushing inventories fell by 465,000 barrels, after rising by 640,000 barrels in the previous week.

UK energy major BP (NYSE:BP) has received government approval to enter Japan’s electricity market with its BPEJ subsidiary, eyeing renewable energy and power market investments.

- Canada’s leading oil producer Suncor Energy (TSE:SU) has restarted production at its Atlantic coast Terra Nova oil field after completing a life extension project until at least 2031.

Tuesday, November 28, 2023

The postponement of last week's OPEC+ meeting put downward pressure on oil prices, but storms blocking Russian export terminals have added some pricing upside as Kazakhstan’s oil producers are considering production cuts to avoid storage tanks overfilling. With ICE Brent now back above $80 per barrel, US inventory data and the OPEC+ meeting will shape price developments in the second half of this week.

OPEC Clashes with the IEA. OPEC Secretary General Haitham al Ghais accused the International Energy Agency of vilifying the oil and gas industry, adding that the IEA plays down issues such as energy security and affordability, calling for a “dangerous” phase-down in energy investment.

Tanker Distress Now Moves to the Gulf of Aden. The US military prevented a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden from being seized by armed individuals, with the Central Park chemical tanker being most probably targeted due to it being managed by a company owned by Israel’s Ofer family.

China Set for Peak Power Demand. According to China’s National Energy Administration, the Asian country will see both electricity and gas consumption peak in the winter of 2023/2024, with the former soaring 12% year-on-year to 140 million KW yet shortages should be largely avoided.

Alberta to Defy Federal Government’s Policy. The premier of Alberta province in Canada Danielle Smith pledging to shield provincial power companies from Ottawa’s federal clean electricity regulations that aim to reach a net-zero emissions power grid by 2035, defending gas-burning plants.

Chinese Major Expands into India’s Underbelly. The government of Sri Lanka is expected to approve a bid from China’s oil major Sinopec (SHA:600028) to build a $4.5 billion refinery, outbidding commodity trader Vitol for the deal, expanding its Belt and Road Initiative to a long-time India ally.

Eyeing Higher Output, Libya Seeks More Investment. Libya’s state oil company NOC stated it needs an annual budget of $17 billion to increase national output from the current 1.2 million b/d to 2 million b/d over the next three years, saying replacing old pipelines would require the most funding.

Storms Disrupt Russia’s Crude Exports. Oil and product exports from Russia’s Novorossiysk port located on the country’s Black Sea coast have been halted for days due to severe storms, most probably forcing exporters to move sizable parts of this month’s loading schedule to December.

Meoryou my husbands birthday is tomorrow snap:))))))

Something to perk us up below

https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php

Hope all is well.I have been very busy with birthdays and Christmas shopping

I am patiently waiting for

£6.40 per share. Onwards and upwards from here

Champagne ready for the winner :))))))))))::

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An OPEC+ source told Reuters on Monday that the expanded cartel is considering bigger oil output cuts during its November 30 meeting, which was originally delayed for four days over a production quota dispute between OPEC leaders and African nations.

The unnamed OPEC+ source told Reuters he expected an option for a “collective further reduction” in oil production during the next meeting. The source’s comments echo similar comments made earlier in November suggesting that additional cuts would be considered. Last week, analysts increasingly chimed in to predict either an extension of the existing 1 million-barrel-per-day voluntary cuts or additional cuts to support prices which have fallen from highs of close to $100 per barrel in September to barely holding down $80 currently.

Late last week, reports emerged that OPEC+ was making progress in talks with its African producers over their oil output quotas next year after Angola and Nigeria requested a higher production ceiling next year. Both countries took a cut in their quotas at the June 2023 meeting of OPEC+ as they had consistently failed to pump to their quotas.

At the same time, for next year, the UAE is set to increase exports of its flagship Murban crude grade after negotiating a higher production quota in the OPEC+ deal. For years, the UAE has argued it should be allowed to pump more than its current OPEC+ quota as it is raising its production capacity. At the June meeting, the UAE won an upward revision of its quota that will take its production up by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 3.219 million bpd for 2024.Earlier on Monday, the OPEC General Secretariat slammed the International Energy Agency (IEA) for its “moment of truth” report on the oil and gas industry released last week. The IEA suggested that the world now has a stark choice between oil and gas and worsening climate change. OPEC criticized the agency for vilifying the industry and ignoring cost and energy security issues.

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Oil prices dipped early on Wednesday as a report emerged that this weekend’s meeting of the OPEC+ group will be delayed.

The November 26 meeting of the ministers of the OPEC+ alliance will be postponed due to OPEC leader Saudi Arabia expressing dissatisfaction over the production levels of the other members, delegates have told Bloomberg.

The meeting may be delayed for an unspecified period of time, according to the anonymous delegates who told Bloomberg that the Saudis have been in talks with the other oil producers about their output.

The Kingdom will likely try to persuade other OPEC+ members to make more cuts, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand told Bloomberg earlier on Wednesday.

Oil prices were down by 1.7% early on Wednesday as the market expects the OPEC+ meeting and the weekly U.S. inventory report from the EIA later today.

Speculation is growing that OPEC’s top producer, Saudi Arabia, will extend its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) into 2024, considering the latest slide in oil prices to $80 and the typically weak period for oil demand in the first quarter of every year. Market talk is also intensifying that OPEC+ could announce a deeper cut at the group’s meeting in the weekend November 25-26.

The recent weakness in oil prices “has increased noise over what OPEC+ will decide to do at its meeting on 26 November. We continue to expect that Saudi Arabia and Russia will roll over their additional voluntary cuts into early 2024,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote on Monday.

“However, what is less clear is whether the broader OPEC+ group will make further cuts,” they added.

A deeper group cut combined with the Saudis and Russians rolling over their voluntary reduction would wipe out the currently expected market surplus in the first quarter of 2024, the strategists noted.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

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Saudi Arabia Keeps On Finding Gas. Saudi Arabia’s national oil firm Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) announced the discovery of two new natural gas fields in the Empty Quarter Desert in the country’s southern part, with both the al-Hiran and al-Mahakik prospects showing commercial gas flow rates.

Venezuela Nears Deal with Trinidad. Following months-long talks with Trinidad and Tobago as well as project operator Shell (LON:SHEL), Venezuela is expected to approve a 25-year license for the UK-based energy major to develop the 4.2 TCf Dragon field straddling their maritime border.

Lula Asks Petrobras to Generate More Jobs. Brazil’s President Lula da Silva asked the CEO of national oil firm Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) Jean-Paul Prates to modify the company’s 2024-2028 investment plan to prioritize local job creation, raising fears of more state intervention.

High Waters Hinder Europe’s Largest Shipping Artery. After months of drought-induced freight restrictions, navigation along the river Rhine has been limited as vessels en route to Switzerland can no longer sail under bridges due to continuous rains.

Sri Lanka Wants to Become a Nuclear Nation. The government of Sri Lanka has expressed its interest in setting up nuclear power plants as it seeks to produce cheap and reliable electricity, seeking to wean itself off its oil and coal dependence and meet its 2050 carbon neutrality target.

US Still Can’t Find Source of Gulf Oil Spill. US emergency response crews are trying to locate the source of an oil spill in the US Gulf of Mexico reported near the Main Pass Oil Gathering (MPOG) pipeline some 19 miles off the coast of southeastern Louisiana, prompting a swift pipeline halt.

Shell Pays UK Taxes Thanks to Windfall Tax. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) recorded its first net corporate taxes in the UK last year after four consecutive years of zero payments thanks to tax credits on investment and platform decommissioning, paying $40.5 million in tax last year.

As OPEC+ prepares for its meeting on November 26, African producers are tacitly lamenting the oil group’s recalibration of 2024 production targets that will curb the maximum amount Nigeria or Angola can produce.

- Following tense negotiations in June, all African countries agreed they would be subjected to lower 2024 quotas unless they could demonstrate higher production capacity before November, partly explaining the bumper production figures from Nigeria and Angola.

- Nigeria, pumping only 1.38 million b/d on average in the first half of 2023, has been some 400,000 b/d below its OPEC quota, similar to Angola which still carries a 1.46 million b/d quota despite production averaging only slightly above 1 million b/d.

- Three upstream consultancies - Rystad, IHS, and WoodMac - have submitted their African production capacity figures to the OPEC secretariat and the OPEC+ meeting is believed to be deciding on their fate this Sunday.

Market Movers

- Backed by BlackRock, Canadian power generation firm Capital Power (TSE:CPX) agreed to buy two natural gas-fired power plants in the US for $1.1 billion from Beal Financial, making it North America’s fifth largest operator.

- The merger of Chesapeake Energy (NASDAQ:CHK) and Southwestern Energy (NYSE:SWN) might be the next big thing in US M&A activity after investor Kimmeridge came out in support of the prospective deal.

- Australia’s Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) agreed to buy a 30% stake from operator LLOG in the Who Dat and Dome Patrol oil fields in offshore Louisiana, paying $720 million to break into the US Gulf Coast.

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Oil markets are once again on edge ahead of the OPEC+ summit this weekend, with calls for deeper cuts circulating concurrently to rumors of OPEC members not being ready to agree on any coordinated response. Hence, Monday’s spike that saw Brent move back to $82 per barrel had tapered off by Tuesday morning. Barring a surprise in this week's U.S. oil inventory report, all the attention will be geared toward Vienna over the weekend.

Argentina’s New President Lifts Commodity Stocks. Argentina’s oil stocks have soared by as much as 40% Monday after libertarian candidate Javier Milei was announced the winner of the presidential election run-off, pledging to nationalize YPF (NYSE:YPF), shrink the government, and cut taxes.

Houthis Seize Israel-Linked Cargo Ship. Yemen’s Houthi militias have seized the Israel-linked cargo carrier Galaxy Leader as it was transiting the Red Sea, threatening to do the same with any other ships passing offshore Yemen and adding a new layer of maritime security risks for shippers.

Russia Lifts Gasoline Export Ban. Citing surplus domestic supply and lower prices, Russia’s energy ministry scrapped restrictions on gasoline exports, introduced on September 21 to tackle fuel shortages over the country, with some 150,000 b/d expected to be exported from December on.

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Excellent posts thankyou:)

The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels of Yemen have seized a cargo ship linked to an Israeli company in the Red Sea in the latest flare-up in the Middle East that could roil the oil market ahead of the OPEC+ meeting next weekend.

Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree said in a statement that the rebels “carried out a military operation in the Red Sea, the results of which were the seizure of an Israeli ship and taking it to the Yemeni coast,” The Times of Israel reported.

The vessel, Galaxy Leader, is owned by a company registered under Isle of Man-headquartered Ray Car Carriers – a unit of Tel Aviv-incorporated Ray Shipping, per LSEG data cited by Reuters.

Israel blamed directly Iran for the cargo ship seizure, while Iran denied any involvement in the incident.

“Israel strongly condemns the Iranian attack against an international vessel,” a statement by Israel’s Prime Minister's Office said on Sunday.

“The ship, which is owned by a British company and is operated by a Japanese firm, was hijacked with Iran guidance by the Yemenite Houthi militia.”

“This is another act of Iranian terrorism and constitutes a leap forward in Iran's aggression against the citizens of the free world, with international consequences regarding the security of the global shipping lanes,” Benjamin Netanyahu’s office added.

Iran, for its part, rejected Israeli claims it was involved in the seizure of the ship.

“These accusations are false and caused by the difficult conditions that the Zionist regime is dealing with,” Iranian media quoted Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani as saying on Monday.

“Unlike the US, Iran does not have proxy forces and the resistance groups in the region are the representatives of their nations, and they act based on their interests, and their actions are part of the reactions to the regime's crimes. It is a Zionist who is committing genocide and war crimes in Gaza under the support of US,” the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman added.

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