Member Info for Spiderman183

Thanks Tommy boy, that's about what I thought it would be. I've held shares since early 2017, and I currently hold 40,000 shares. Averaged out I'm in for about 23p a share so I'm currently showing a small profit. I look forward to an announcement of some kind. Are we likely to hear anything prior to the end of the phase 3 trials do you think?

OK so I know its a very difficult question but what do you see the share price being if a) there is a good phase 3 outcome and b) the phase 3 trials are not good and FUM doesn't advance with MED2005

HAZRAT, I am surprised at your 50% estimation, but I guess it brings me back to earth! The share price went down to under 6p on the back of news of the partners wanting more evidence that the gel works better than a placebo when applied to the penis. Is this worrying? And what would FUM's share price be without MED2005 on board?

So what are you saying? What do you think the percentage chance is of positive phase 3 results?

I'm a bookmaker by trade and if I look at Futura Medical I think its a fantastic value bet and I'll explain why. Singer have recently upgraded the chances of successful phase 3 trials from 60% to 80%, so in betting terms they are saying the odds of the phase 3 trials being successful are 1/4, so if you placed a wager of £4000 you would get back £5000. FUM has a current SP of 25p and if the trials are successful the SP will obviously go up, let's say to £1 looking at it conservatively. The odds in bookmaking terms would then be 4/1 (4x25=£1)
So we are having a 'bet' here on a 4/1 shot which has a 80% of winning. Not bad eh??

I know what you're Hazrat, it Is perhaps overly optimistic. Ask Ananda how he got a price of £2.75. He'll explain to you x

Generally accepted by me son, by me :)

When the phase 3 trials (hopefully) give us good news it's generally accepted that the SP will go north of £2.50, which is a ten fold gain from today's price. Therefore one would assume if the results are negative the SP will be negligible thereafter. Another way to look at it would be to assume that for one to make "a profit", a venture such as this would only need to succeed one time in ten or 10% of the time. Therefore any expectation over 10% would allow the investor to make a profit. The broker Singer have recently updated their expectation of success from 60% to 80%. Therefore all things being equal, investing in FUM should render a profit of between 600 and 800%. Happy days indeed...

The share price is moving as we speak. It has gone from 24.75 to 26.25 within minutes. WATCH THIS SPACE

It's definitely a cup and saucer formation. If that pattern is followed to the law, the SP will reach 67p by next month lol

There seems to be a lot of confidence that the share price will not retrace back to 15p or lower. Actually though, there is no fundamental difference as far as positive news goes, so why has the share price gone as high as it has? Personally I think there is enough market confidence to keep the price around the 30-40p range until there is an announcement of some kind. Surely given expected good news from phase 3 results will push this through the roof!! In the meantime it's tempting to try and second guess the market and make some lucrative trades, but that's a dangerous game, and the nightmare scenario would be to sell at a given price with a view to rebuy, only for there to be an out of the blue announcement and the SP goes through the roof!!

Thanks Ananda, that's very interesting. If Singers estimates are even fairly accurate then this the equivalent of backing a horse at 3/1 when the true odds are 1/10 (odds on). Anyone who has seen Singer's estimates would have surely invested heavily in FUM. Maybe this is why the SP is rising like it is. Maestro 1, in his wisdom didn't think Ken James would tell me such privvi information. Let's see shall we. I think you'll find there might just be an announcement on Thursday Afternoon. Then ask me again who's friends with who.. Lol

Let's assume for arguments sake that the share price rises to £1.35 on the back of positive phase 3 trials. With a current share price of 27p, this would mean a 500% price increase, or in betting terms, odds of 5 to 1. Maestro 1 finds it unbelievable and abhorrent that Ken James might say that the chances of failure were 20%.Surely it would be more realistic if he said the chances of SUCCESS were 20% !! Let's just say for the sake of argument that Ken James, or anyone else for that matter was accurate when they say there is a 20% chance of failure. Surely then with a current share price of 27p, and a potential price of £1.35 with positive phase 3 trials, this must be the BEST BET EVER !! Can anyone tell me what a realistic price target is and how you come to that price, and in your opinion what are the ACTUAL percentage chances of success. Are the results of the phase 3 trials a foregone conclusion?

The initial phases indicated that the partners wanted more evidence that the MED2005 gel actually helped men with ED, better than a placebo did. The initial evidence was inconclusive, and this is the sole reason the SP fell to under 6p. This is why Ken James has (apparently) said there is a 20% of failure. Of course when someone reports that this kind of statement has been made, unless I actually hear it myself, I take this kind of thing with a pinch of salt. We have got to accept that the next set of results from the phase 3 trials may still be inconclusive, and if that happens then we are facing armageddon....

The other point of note I forgot to mention, at what price do we sell at? If the share price rose to £1.50 BEFORE any phase 3 results, should we take a profit? My personal opinion in NO because I think this year is going to be much better than it is in our wildest dreams

This share price increase is only the very start!!!
I am a fairly substantial shareholder and the recent 70% price hike is obviously heartwarming to us patient loyalists who watched the SP dribble down to under 6 pence. I spoke to Ken James at the recent shareholders meeting and he informed me that the first interim results of the current phase 3 trials would be known around the end of July. However any potential licencing partners will have their eye to the ground for any scraps of information in the meantime. Obviously there has been some positive feedback. My business partner knows Ken James personally and I know for sure there is genuine excitement among the directors as to where this will go. I know Mr James confidently expects a SP of around £3 once the results of the trials are known. That said he freely admits there is a 20% chance the trials will go belly up. So guys we are betting a 1/4 odds on shot! Of course I would think the SP will climb to 50p in the short term, so there's profit to be made now. My personal opinion is that there will be a positive announcement soon, and I think the share price will climb to £2.75 by the autumn. One point to note, I know for sure the confidence among the directors is 100% and I think they know more than us laymen. This is their retirement remember.....