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Id be wary of calling anyone who invests £4m in a £1bn company an Activist Investor.
I’ve held on to my THG share because I think there will be a bid or corporate action which will increase the SP - but this could happen tomorrow or it could happen in 3 years time, there have been so many false starts and misdirections over the last couple of years.
Hopefully it’s sooner rather than later.
…. or that they couldn’t care less about smaller investors.
A partnership announcement would be great but that’s a bit of leap of faith in terms of THG - their corporate governance and IR is terrible. It’s just something else they could look at / fix if they wanted to improve relationships with the markets etc. It gives the impression that they either don’t know what they are doing or have something to hide.
Kelso have always been powerless as they don’t have either the financial clout or backing from enough big investors to put any pressure on MM or BoD whatsoever. They only ever had one string to their bow and it was to get people to break ranks but this just hasn’t happened at the level they needed.
It’s funny - you read into them and all you get is how much backing they have from major financial players, but if they were really serious about change at THG wouldn’t they get some of these backers to start building proper holdings in THG so they could exert real pressure on MM. It’s all smoke and mirrors / emperors new clothes from them, when push comes to shove they have nothing. The share price is in the toilet, shouldn’t this be prime time for any activist investor - so where are they.
Peel Hunts valuation for THG wont change because of anything that was released in the update - it’s basically old news to them . If they thought a SP of £1.40 was achievable a couple of weeks ago then they still believe it. All this update has done is provided the Shorters with more opportunity but this doesn’t detract from the Peel Hunt valuation.
An offer of £1.40 from anyone would just start a bidding war. It would put focus on how undervalued THG are and other parties would put in bids.
No reason why the SP couldn’t go beyond £3+ in the longer term - what would be nice to see short term is some sustained organic growth underpinned by THG delivering strong trading performances.
@ihavenoclue
Totally agree. Kelso had some good ideas around how to realise value for shareholders but they don't have enough financial clout to get anything done. Then MM bought in and since then they've either stayed quiet or anything they have released regarding THG has been munch more low key and conciliatory in tone.
Let’s be honest the AGM is going to be run along the same lines as as the recent presidential election in Russia.
MM / IR should be leveraging up on any good news, to start building a case why the SP is undervalued but you basically get nothing, unless of course his ego has been triggered then it’s anybody’s guess what he’s going to come up with.
I'm surprised someone hasn't suggested "flash-mobbing" MM's Linked In page yet. Just to note I'm most definitely not suggesting this just registering my surprise no one has suggested / tried it yet.
What I can't understand (amongst many things) is this:
The Sale and Leaseback was approved before the IPO was finalised and long before any of us invested in THG. So this means the people who are all of a sudden having issues with this have either :
a) Invested in THG knowing about the sale and leaseback - so if this is the case why did they invest in the first place, wasn't this a concern when they invested; or
b) Didn't know the sale and leaseback existed and invested anyway, which doesn't exactly suggest they followed DYOR and only have themselves to blame.
The only other option could be:
c) They don't know what they are talking about - but there isn't anyone like this who posts on this forum so that can't be right.
@MagnumPI
What should be even more worrying for you is that I am an investor and I'm investing in the same stock as you ;)
@PMH198
That's a valid point. However the situation with the sale and leaseback has been around for several years - its not a factor in why the SP could fall to 50p. It wasn't a factor when the Apollo "bid" landed and pushed the SP to £1.18p and it isn't a factor now.
Also on a separate issue isn't the AGM soon why don't you see if you can get enough support together to raise a question there regarding the leases / rates / viability - it would be interesting to see how far you could get. I'd vote for it, for what its worth.
Why does any of this matter what MM gets for rent. Its a known outlay that's been in places for several years and I would imagine that as part of the lease agreement here are set increases at specific times going forward.
This isn't why the SP is sitting at 60p and heading downwards - Shorters are having a field day with THG and the BoD / MM are doing absolutely nothing to defend the Company.
THG is currently trapped in a Shorting feeding frenzy where any SP gain is just being taken as trading profit. This seems to be on constant loop at the moment and is going to be difficult to break given there seems to be little confidence in the market regarding the company.
Under normal circumstance you would expect the CEO / BOD to try to counter this by getting its message / vision out to the market and repeating this message over and over, even if they think no one is listening. Then when something positive does happen they can do a “see I told you so” and start building some belief in THG.
Unfortunately our CEO / BOD’s message is currently is along the lines of “woe is me / nobody understands me / everyone else is an idiot” and it’s not landing well.
Not exactly a great look.
@ Crafty Investor
I might have said this before - That's because the future value of a company is based on its future cashflow expectations not on historic revenue / profit metrics.
You could have 2 companies that are exactly the same and both produce the same widgets. Last year Company A made £100m profit and Company B made £0 profit . However Company B has spent money developing and producing a new widget that will allow it to dominate the market for the next 10 years, and increase its profitability to £300m a year for a decade. Assuming everything else is the same which company is more valuable?
CraftyInvestor not understanding why THG Nutrition isn't worth £100bn - even though he's discussed the same eff-ing question 800 times in the last month.
The problem is MM / BoD have basically ignored 24% of voters to keep IM on board - that's not something you do from a position of weakness. Most companies would do anything possible to avoid votes like this happening its embarrassing from both a corporate and professional perspective.