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I can see that " triggering additional undisclosed milestones" could be interpreted both ways.
Either additional payments or additional works. Maybe Dan can clarify in a interview.
Thanks Soupdragon. Six figure sums make sense based on the early NXP1 payment and the previous Ebers patent.
I'm reasonably confident that this revenue plus the placing money will see them though till they wrap up the NXP2 deal.
It was encouraging to see the NXP2 deal still being worked. After all the silence I was worried it had fallen through.
I've been in NFX over a year now. I can wait a bit longer.
The China money is a write off. I think we should stop mentioning it. Every time a RNS comes out saying we haven't got it, the sp tanks.
What are people's thoughts on revenue? It looks like to me there are 3 payments in the RNS.
One for the filing of a new patent for Ebers.
"Further cannabinoids have been added to the agreement, triggering additional undisclosed milestones"
Does this suggest a second payment?
Thirdly, the new agreement with Vistagen has " immediate revenue".
We don't know figures yet but it nice to see.
Does anyone know whether Ebers is selling products using the first patent NFX filed last year?
At some point there will be 20% royalties income as well.
Wasn't this his "share of the year"? Doesn't he back his own picks? Top sliced before 1 bag and out before 2 bags.
You have to make the most of the good shares as they help to cover the bad ones.
A lot of those delayed trades are from last week. Fri 22nd.
I have heard some virologists say that we've got away lightly with this one. This could have been a lot worse.
Treating this as a practice run for something worse in the future is vital.
One essential thing that needs testing is rolling out a vaccine globally.
I'm not sure if anyone's worked out yet how to vaccinate 7.5 billion people.
Even if expert virologists thought COVID would be gone in a few months no one is going to take the risk of doing nothing.
Vaccines will be tested. Tests will continue to be developed. PPE will be stockpiled like never before.
It's far cheaper to prepare for the worst than to enter a second wave unprepared and get caught out again.
In Europe the only reason COVID is reducing is because we've put our lives and the economy on hold. The biology hasn't changed, only our behaviour.
19p is still just within Cathals original ambitions before the aquisition of Hvivo.
Late last year the sp was around 6.5p and Cathal was talking about 2 to 3 times from there.
Things have moved on from there so it's obviously a conservative target.
Presumably the target will move as announcements are made and the numbers firm up.
Very much looking foward to the update on the genomic database.
The fact that so many people still don't understand the difference between a test for the virus and a test for antibodies means that the home test kits could be a waste of time or even dangerous.
Imagine if someone with symptons decides to take a home antibody test (not knowing it's the wrong test) and gets a negative. They think they are in the clear.
Much better to leave the tests in the hands of the medical professionals.
At least the test that Noelpro linked to eliminates false negatives. But imagine taking a test and the result is "You've done it wrong. Please buy another test tor £40."
They must have also spent money on the Corona challenge study.
It was announced in March and we now know ORPH are funding it themselves.
One thing puzzling me is why Quotient would accept an exclusive agreement. One would think they would like to put more than one machine into the UK market.
Could more machines be put into other labs around the country under ORPH ownership, or is location irrelevant and more machines would be put into Hvivo's lab if they are needed?
The Abbott test looks like it uses a finger prick rather than a full blood draw which is inherently less accurate.
For those who haven't seen it, it is worth watching the video on how the machine ORPH has works.
https://vimeo.com/392213955
I think (in hindsight) we were lucky to have the seller for all those months.
We could see all the progess Cathal was making and could continue to accumulate at 6p. Every deal or announcement he made derisked the investment.
Some didn't have the patience but those that did have been rewarded.
Yes, 6p average here. Been holding since last year.
Skimmed a few at 10.5p and now at 15p. Happy to let the rest ride.
A quick search found a private Harley Street Clinic offering anti body tests for £300 for an in clinic test or £350 for a home visit by a nurse. They are using the Abbott test.
I suspect private clinics are some of the channel partners Cathal will have in mind.
If they are charging £300, ORPH can still charge £100 - £150 and everybody has a decent margin.
Yes the capacity of this machine could be used up just by corperate clients in London.
Would not be supprised to see an RNS in a months time about a second machine.
This is a revenue stream we didn't even know existed 1 week ago!
ORPHs machine is capable running 1 million tests per year. There are 68 million people in the UK, many of whom will be need to be tested multiple times. Running it at close to 100% capacity will not be a problem.
Cathal suggested last night there is capacity to bolt on a second machine if needed.
Initially targeting banks and other private sector clients with £100 - £150 per test.
A very conservative estimate of profit per test?
Test costs £15 to buy, maybe another £15 of lab and transport costs. If he only manages to charge £60 per test instead of £100 that still leaves £30 million per year profit.
How do you value a company like that. It's no longer 2 - 3 times revenue.
Quote from the FT about a month ago about Quotient.
"Quotient will sell its testing machines, called MosaiQ, at cost from next week. Each test for the novel coronavirus will then cost between $15 and $25 to conduct."
Also remember it is an exclusive contract so Quotient are clearly happy with ORPH.
Both companies will do well from the deal.
I wonder if this deal is why they dropped the idea of the Chinese Pharma funding the covid challenge study.
With this revenue they can fund it themselves and have 100% ownership of it.
I think that explains Cathals description of the deal as "transformational" in the previous interview.