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If a share price is based on discounted future earnings, investors don’t seem to be overly impressed with the proposed deal. On the cruise side, the Spirit of Adventure was late out of a refit and has two emergency generators blocking the aft of its promenade deck and closing a popular seating/refreshment terrace. A 10% discount was given to those on its current, delayed cruise. Those who opted to cancel received a full refund. The generators will be remaining for at least the next cruise. On top of the Marine Accident Investigation Branch review into the Spirit of Discover fatality and injuries, it’s clearly not plain sailing for the profitable side of the company.

Is it relevant? Err, duty of care to passengers; vicarious liability if a captain made a bad call; perhaps even legal proceedings over the fatality? There will be compensation lawyers salivating over the possibilities here. The Spirit of Adventure, at the start of a cruise, was diverted and safely moored for three days to avoid the same weather front. Every other cruise line with ships in that part of the North Atlantic seem to have had their ships safely in harbour. But the exception seems to have been the Spirit of Discovery, which cut short a trip to the Canary Isles. This despite a Saga spokesperson claiming at the inquest of a passenger who died after a fall not long before, that the ‘demographic’ of the customer base increased the chances of falls and injuries.

The draft government report re an incident involving the Spirit of Discovery last year is being sent to stakeholders. One fatality and over 100 injuries resulted from the ship losing control temporarily in the Bay of Biscay. I wonder if the investigators are aware its sister ship was diverted to a safe harbour for three days at the beginning of a cruise, while the Discovery had a cruise to the Canary Isles curtailed in an apparent effort to get ahead of a known heavy storm.

maybe de haan’s advertised appearance on the november caribbean cruise is significant. the online blurb says he’ll be joining the cruise for a few days, and will host a ****tail party and take a q&a session. by ‘host’ i wonder if he’ll be paying for the fizz and canapés. and who will pay for his flights to and from his ports of embarkation and disembarkation? the senior management do seem to enjoy their little onboard jaunts, and the adulation of the smuganauts, many of whom will want reassuring about the cruise arm’s future. quite a contrast to their dismissive attitude to small shareholders.

“Horrible rip-off company” - possibly a little harsh. There’s been a good deal of discussion recently online about SAGA’s pricing policies for cruises. A number of long standing customers have become dubious of the early booker discounts as practically every cruise now has late deals, and upgrades seem to be built into the business plan. One regular cruiser describes the headline price as a ‘con’, and another wrote what was an old fashioned ‘avuncular’ approach has been replaced by a cynical corporate attitude.

I wonder whether de Haan’s advertised presence on November’s Caribbean cruise is significant. If there’s a major announcement in the next month or so, there’ll be a very interested audience for his onboard Q&A session.

I believe RdH is scheduled to take a Q&A session on the November Caribbean cruise - nice work if you can get it. I wonder if this is timed to coincide with news about the sale and leaseback plan for the ships. The main issue that seems to be agitating cruise customers is the increasing use of ‘guaranteed cabins’, a way of discounting for late bookers. Some are rightly peeved that they are now being disadvantaged for having taken ‘advantage’ (Saga’s term) of early booking discount incentives. It seems Saga’s new marketing ploys are testing the loyalty of some traditional Saganauts.

I’ve had a look at what’s on offer with Azamara on Saga’s website, and a Japan trip tweaked my fancy. However international flights are not included, so it looks like a case of arranging transport to and from Tokyo. I’m not sure what customer benefit there would be by booking Aramara through Saga. A travel agent would probably provide a more comprehensive service.

I’ve seen an advert today for 3 year fixed price car insurance. I thought they were moving away from that pricing model. There’s also a heck of lot of offers on ocean cruises. For instance a Caribbean cruise in November can now be taken as a fly cruise from Madeira disembarking in Tenerife, cutting out a week’s worth of sea days. There are also special deals for, amongst others, a Canaries pre Christmas cruise, and a 49 dayer to the Carribean, Central America and the USA in the new year. I don’t know whether this is due to low demand or a push to fill the ships. From experience the indoor public spaces get very crowded on sea days when the weather is poor. Cramming the ships during winter in the North Atlantic might be counter productive.

It’s run like a private unquoted company. Smugness Ashore Gluttony Aboard.

I’ve said it before, Saga exists for the benefit of the directors and senior managers. They do enjoy their benefits and jaunts aboard the ships.

As expected the increased demand for cruising, and P&O’s move to very large ships have helped Saga. I’d say advertised prices are at least 30% higher than a few years ago. However, on top of normal inflation, costs have increased by extending the included travel across the entire UK. That means included flights from Scotland and NI. They also now include flights for the residents of Jersey and Guernsey. We can’t be the only ones thinking we don’t want to be subsidising transport for so many affluent cruisers. There’s also a flurry of discounts on seemingly every cruise that isn’t sold out. A move that could eventually backfire as full ships are far less comfortable on sea days, and puts pressure on the restaurants, playhouse and bars. It’s disappointing that there’s no further news on any new arrangement for the ships, I hope the previous management didn’t think they could sell high and lease low. Insurance of course remains a difficult area, even for the best run companies. So a case of nothing unexpected or particularly encouraging.

Ppygda

Yes, they’ve ignored the consolidation. The share price fall has been an unmitigated disaster, about which Saga HO displays its customary smug, arrogant indifference.

Same old story, looking after themselves. I’ve learnt there are no plans to offer shareholders discounts on cruises , which are available to members of English Heritage, ORCA and possibly other organisations. They were quick enough to ask for cash at the time of the consolidation. I’m totally disillusioned with Saga.

£368 is the average per diem per passenger. The basic cabin is now about £700 a night for a couple, single cabins are about 80% of the double cabin price. The discounted suite prices are £1,200 to £1,400 per night. Undiscounted prices are considerably higher. The ocean cruise prices have been hiked quite considerably post pandemic. But I suppose the likes of Mr Motivator, has been TV ‘celeb’ guest speakers, and the onboard ‘Cruise Radio’ bods etc don’t come cheap.

I can’t help think that Saga’s ocean and river cruise division would be very tempting for Viking if it has the funding to expand.

More like treading water. Taken in isolation the cruise division is the stand out performer, with underlying PBT of £35.5 million. Apply a multiple between 10 to 12 to that and the cruise division is worth less than the net debt of £637.2 million. It’s a dog’s breakfast of a company, and the SP is reflecting that. We’ve removed it from our spreadsheets and just written it off.

I suppose the house broker is going to be positive. The corollary of crystalising assets and reducing debt is to replace interest payments with rental costs for those big shiny ships. I can’t imagine Saga getting back to declaring a dividend. That’s got to be a drag on the sp. Meanwhile the company wastes money on something called Cruise Radio and the likes of Mr Motivator and his associates. All rather Pontins, and unnecessary for what is a respected brand. I don’t know anyone who wouid choose a cruise company because it has a radio station that reads out requests and dedications, or a celebrity keep fit class.

ZCCAX77 You are correct about the price gap between P&O and Saga. But we’ve come across many former P&O regulars who have become Saga regulars. They dislike the new large ships, and bemoan the decline in P&O’s standards. Saga is almost certainly too expensive for most cruise customers, but there is a significant number who have the means to pay.

It looks like the ocean cruise ships have been operating at near full capacity. Disenchantment from P&O regulars and late discounting adding to the increased general demand. It will be worth remembering that profits in the cruise division will be lowered following last November’s weather related incidents. The Spirit of Discovery cut short a Canary Isles cruise and sailed right into a massive storm. The resulting incident is under investigation by the Marine Accident Investigation Branch, and all passengers on board received a full refund. At the same time passengers on the Spirit of Adventure received a 25% refund as their cruise was completely altered to avoid the same weather system. So a couple of extraordinary items will affect the bottom line. Incidentally, like all cruise operators, it’s highly unusual for Saga to make any sort of refund.