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Late trade has brought it up by 2.43 percent :-)
Exploration, many thanks for taking the time to put together such a detailed response and also for your summary at the bottom which even I can understand. All very much appreciated.
Let's hope Shell's plan, whatever it turns out to be, is successful
Thanks again Exploration for your detailed response. I have to be honest and say that I don't understand much of the technicalities as I am definitely no expert, but would it be safe to say that Shell must have seen something positive in the data provided by Cluff (as it was back then) to persuade them that it would be worth their time money and efforts taking this on? Or is it a case that Shell have taken an educated risk? And once again, please excuse my ignorance
Many thanks Exploration, your insight and knowledge is always valued and very much appreciated. And going by the information on the link you have provided, it would seem that Shell are certainly very interested and fully involved in the area both in and adjacent to the Pensacola prospect.
So after this weeks Selene announcement, we now know that a second Deltic prospect with Shell will be drilled either next year or shortly after, so in addition to the Pensacola drill commencing this September. All good stuff! But there is also the third JV prospect Deltic share with Shell, namely Pensacola North. There does not seem to be much information available regarding Pensacola North, but what we do know is that Deltic and Shell jointly successfully applied for this Prospect on the back of the 3D seismic data that was acquired late in 2019. So presumably they must think there's a good chance that a decent amount of gas is there too! Makes me wonder that if the drill is successful on Pensacola, then that success may well prompt a drill at Pensacola North? Either way, these seem to be exciting times, so fingers firmly crossed.
So the Pensacola drill is delayed from end of Q2 to end of Q3 or maybe a touch later. But there is nothing that Deltic can do about that, as the reality is that Deltic are the Junior partner and have to rely on Shell to get the job done. But the fundamentals are still the same and Pensacola will still get drilled. As far as Selene is concerned, until Shell make a firm well commitment then drilling is not guaranteed, but with a GCOS of 70%, and the fact that it lies immediately below an existing pipeline to Shell's gas terminal at Bacton, and with the horrific war in Ukraine also making additional domestic gas production seem a no brainer, then the odds on Shell making a firm well commitment on Selene would seem to be good. So personally I really don't understand the panic. And then there is Capricorn and the massive potential with that partnership.
Exactly. New Oil fields off the Scottish coast are very different to new Gas fields off of the English coast. And Deltic's multiple Gas fields in the southern north sea are all farmed out. Definitely one of which to be drilled next year with Shell, then you have Cairn who seem to be swiftly moving towards drilling in the next year or two. And then we have Selene where Shell could make a firm well commitment literally at any moment. Yeah it's not guaranteed, but seeing as Shell seemed more interested in Selene compared to Pensacola, it would seem to only be a matter of time. If all that is a reason to sell, well each to their own. I bought a few more this week as the share price really does seem ridiculously cheap, especially if positive news drops regarding Selene.
In the drop down menu go to - Investor Relations - Corporate Presentation
Presumably Shell have more layers of internal nonsense and are less nimble than Cairn, but the moment they finally commit to Selene, those still waiting in the wings will be desperately trying to get in before this completely takes off
It sure looks like a very good decision going with Cairn, they sure ain't dragging their heels and wasting any time. The much talked about conveyor belt strategy now seems to be falling into place, and as such it feels like the share price could take off at any moment. Glad I am safely on board so I can sit back and relax, as the price for a seat on the good ship Deltic won't be this cheap for too much longer.
Hello Dick, it's been a very long time since you posted on this board. I used to really enjoy reading your thoughts, as they were usually informative and very positive. But however informed any of us think we are, we never really know what those in charge of companies are planning. I hope for your sake you are right about JOG, but you (just like me) didn't see the Cluff (Deltic) placement coming in 2019. My thoughts on that is that it was unfortunately a necessary evil, but one that cost you, me and all other holders a lot of money. But it would appear that Deltic is now fully funded for the Pensacola drill and also Selene if Shell commit to drill that as well. But as a private investor it's all a guessing game, so all you can do is invest in something you believe in and hope for the best. For what it's worth, I think Deltic have some very exciting assets and I still have faith that this will come good. Back in early 2019 you even predicted a Cluff (now Deltic) 3 year target price of 50p per share. Taking into account the roughly two thirds extra shares now in issue, that would equate to approximately 17p per share. So I hope your prediction comes true!
This should do very well both in the short term and long term
I remember in early 2019, so not long after Cluff (as we were) had failed to farm out license P2248 and as such lost the license at that time, only for a rumour or speculation to briefly emerge that Cluff had not actually lost the license, at which point the share price shot up about half a penny from memory, and I like no doubt many others paid a premium that day, only for the price to drop back as soon as the rumour was quashed. Roll forward about two and a half years to today, and Deltic has not only farmed out P2567 (formally P2248), keeping 40% in the process, but also done this on the hugely promising Cupertino license as well, and also farmed out the mysterious Breagh South licenses too. Fantastic news! All of which has seen a completly pathetic increase in the share price today. Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
At this price these shares look an absolute bargain. All I do know is that I am glad I am on board and no way I am selling any shares at this pathetic price. Good luck all LTH's, I think our patience will be rewarded. Exciting times are ahead.
I tend to agree Draft in that these charts are only probably short term indicators at best. Fundamentals are more important in the long run. But if we could hit 3p in the next few weeks, that would be good to see. Well, as long as it can then stay above 3p that is!!!
Good spot and it would indeed be nice Sjm321. I presume Zak Mir is using Technical Analysis in his video blog? I have to say that I have absolutely no idea what it all means and how it works, but I hope he is right. Hello Amtech. I think from reading this chat over the past few years that you understand TA. Hope you dont mind me asking, but just curious if you agree with Zak's thoughts that we could hit 3p by the end of next month?
The share price may have hardly moved today, but personally I am very happy tonight with the knowledge that Shell will definitely be drilling at least one of Deltic's prospects. Yeah it may have been delayed by another 6 months or so, but now we know that it WILL happen! And with a greatly improved GCOS. And what about Pensacola North! No mention of that, so we may have even more good news coming soon??? And to my mind, out of the two farmed out prospects, it always seemed that Shell were more interested in Selene than Pensacola. So despite what the current share price says, I think Deltic is looking good.
Yep, big week for Deltic, and we may finally find out what the 3D seismic survey over Pensacola and also Pensacola North has revealed, and hopefully bigger gas estimates and a higher GCOS. So good news or bad news, either way this is going to be an interesting week. Lets hope it's good news and a firm drill commitment at long long last. I too am quietly confident.