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Another 220k in buys. Somebody's building a stake here.
I like to think the smart GCM money is moving in here, slowly but surely. We can three bag just to reach our current NAV, and meanwhile nerves are beginning to set in among the weak holders at GCM as they dip in and out of the red.
Anything could happen, but since the company is significantly undervalued as is with a NAV of 21.5p and news flow coming out of Blackham I'm not at all concerned about falling.
There's a very real possibility of a top three on the risers board looking like this: GCM WTI POL
What I'm liking is that these aren't piddling 300 quid pocket money trades coming in. There's serious money entering right now. This is going places today.
Looks like we're finally being recognised :)
I'd imagine that the thought process for a lot of traders looking at GCM right now goes something like this: If I can get in early doors before the price goes too high I'll buy GCM. If not I'll fall back on POL and try to get in there quick. Of course this is all moot if GCM retraces first thing. If that happends they may either come here anyway or go and look elsewhere at whatever looks promises after the 7AM news.
That said, I do take your point. I'm not *expecting* huge gains tomorrow and I won't be all that disappointed if POL doesn't move sharply north, but I'm hoping for an interesting day :)
I beg to differ, ShatAim. Take a look at Blackham. First gold pour middle of last month, RNS just last Wednesday (I think) describing their drilling program to identify open pit targets, and the data they've collected will be used to - hopefully - upgrade their proven resource figures very soon. The news flow coming out of BLK in the near future should be relentless, and that could be a bigger short term prize than GCM as they're finally going into production right now. It's also worth keeping in mind that 34% of the share issue here is tightly held by major shareholders. If people start buying POL in volume the SP could start moving very quickly thanks to momentum and a tightening free float. If Mr. 71k on Friday plans to make any more buys 14p could come very quickly.
I'm in little doubt that it will at least one bag from this level. The only question in my mind is how quickly it will happen. If GCM continues to climb tomorrow there's a very real possibility we could make huge progress here right away, especially when GCM traders take their gains and look in our direction for a second bite of the cherry. I'd love that to be the case as I'm a trader at heart and I love the quick plays, but I just don't know what to expect. The real best case scenario tomorrow, I think, is that a large number of people who were drawn to GCM but missed the big rise now, like me, have spent the weekend checking out what's going on with POL, and have come to the conclusion that this is a very promising place to put their money regardless of the GCM investment. I can't wait for the opening bell. I've wished away the weekend wondering whether we'll open flat or make a big leap north :P
Typo correction: With a 21.5p NAV that's *now* outdated and needs to be adjusted upwards...
I'd say POL is definitely a *safer* investment right now, at least in the short to mid term. If GCM succeeds it will be worth many, many multiples of its current SP, but the price will no doubt fluctuate wildly over the coming months. Whether or not it continues to climb tomorrow it will inevitably begin to drift until the next news, so a lot of people are sure to get spiked. I'd say it would be a good idea to put some money in there if you knew you wouldn't have to touch it for however long it's expected to take to get off the ground (I've no idea of their expected schedule). POL, on the other hand, ticks all the boxes for both short and long term investment. With a 21.5p NAV that's not outdated and needs to be adjusted upwards there's little reason why the SP would drop back below 7p. In the short term it seems likely that new interest and renewed sentiment will take it in the direction of the current NAV (and possibly higher), and in the long term the success of GCM will be transformative to the SP. That's not even mentioning the coming gains from Blackham, nor the potential from Ironstone and our other, smaller, investments. All in all it's an exciting time, and I kinda feel like I got in on the ground floor after buying on Friday.
Looking at it from a purely mathematical perspective: 27.8% of GCMs market cap gain yesterday is GBP6.2m. POLs market cap rose from 18.11m to 22.48m, for a rise of 4.37m. POLs share price should - based on simple crude sums - have risen yesterday to 7.79p to accurately reflect the increased value of the GCM investment. Of course in the real world it doesn't work like that. For one thing GCMs rise yesterday doesn't come anywhere near reflecting the potential value of the company - or our investment in it - should they succeed in their project. GCMs previous high mcap was, I believe, GBP150m (compared to around 30m at present), and if the project comes off it could be significantly higher than that. For another thing POL has many other investments, some of which are only now beginning to come to fruition and most of which aren't priced into the current SP. Based on the most recent NAV POL should be fairly valued at at least GBP67m, and perhaps much higher. The important point to take away is that yesterday's action at GCM brought many new eyes to POL, including mine, and investors should now be looking at the investments here and realising that the company is significantly beneath fair value.
Yep. Everything happened very quickly in the closing hours yesterday, so GCM attracted most of the attention while POL was relatively overlooked. We saw some healthy gains and a fair few chunky buys here. but the herd has yet to really arrive. POL's most recent NAV calculation gave it 21.5p, but with GCM up 250% this week and seeing its first signs of promise in years (27.8% owned by POL), Weatherly up 200% so far this month (5.2% owned by POL), Blackham moving into production with their 5.1Moz gold resource (8.11% owned by POL), several other promising investments and resource prices trending upwards the current NAV probably needs to be updated. If the markets make any damned sense at all POL will be back to the 20s soon enough (though of course the markets don't make sense).
You've dropped the ball, papachav :) You LTHs should be out in force talking up POL to new investors. Looks like you have your best chance in a long time to approach fair value what with GCM starting to come good and BLK ramping up production. I'm sure all us new arrivals would be happy to hear from better researched folk :)
Ha :) It's the risk you run. Whenever you talk about optimistic target prices it's almost guaranteed that some angry so and so will roll in to complain that he invested 40k at ten times that price five years ago. Then they go on to post 100 times a day about how they only need another 1000% to break even :P
Yeah, it's a shame that consolidated shares tend to drift back towards their pre-consolidation price. Bit of a pain for anyone in before 2013. BLK started production last month, but they're still in the ramping up phase. I'm not sure what their schedule is but I'm guessing it takes a while to get an operation of that size up to full production.
There was a simple 10-1 consolidation in early 2013.
It's worth pointing out that BLK released a great update just a couple of days ago: http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/85558/Blackham-Resources-Ltd-(ASX-BLK)-Drilling-Confirms-Potential-for-Wiluna-Open-Pit-Mining-85558.html Looks like they'll soon have a resource update that could significantly increase the size of their reserves.
Based on BLKs current Mcap our investment there is worth GBP8.92m :)