Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Totally agree "trouble is believers like us have been 'topping up' for over a decade - there comes a point we're too heavily invested to cop any more screw-ups or an ill timed takeover"
I am the guy in the casino with all my money bet on red.
Sotolo I normally enjoy reading your posts but the latest. As a long term holder the last thing I would like to see is a sell out and especially to Endevour. Sorry but my view on this is no surrender at least not less than GBP 5 per share. Best wishes Peter.
I enjoy your posts Cowichan, very informative and it is good to see someone with the knowledge and determination to challenge the status quo. Please keep up the good work in 20222. No need to take MrBonds comemnts too much to heart.
Never really understood the differrnce between “all-in sustaining costs” and “all-in costs” metrics but there is some very useful information at https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/responsible-gold/all-in-costs
On another point I really do think LSE should add another category "Well F****d in the Opinion drop down menu.
So 8th December has come and gone and another slap in the face for shareholders.
Martin Horgan, his management team and Centamin employees have done a great job and should be applauded. Detail and information in the presentation was excellent, albeit increased costs not so good.
However the manner of delivery from a corporate communications standpoint was atrocious.
Missing was a simple one page summary with a clear positive message for the one brain cell, cut and paste so called "brokers" to pick up on.
We had the detail but not a positive simple message for the market and share price to pick up on.
One saving not mentioned was the cash to be saved if Centamin's corporate communications adviser was let go and replaced by one that could actually do the job.
Easy there Mr T you seem to be missing the main point of my post which is there is endless discussion about price of gold, conspiracies and daily share price when the real issue is number of ounces mined.
This used to be a "headline topic" but was swept under the carpet when Centamin ran into production problems and has not been resurrected.
Daily gold price and daily share price is of interest for short term traders but not so much for me as an investor, provided gold price stays within a predicted range. Other things being equal it is the number of ounces mined that will drive free cash flow.
There are lots of good things being done by Martin Horgan and his team but I have the feeling of waiting for a bus that is late, hasn't arrived yet but may arrive at some point in the future.
The present forecast ounces per annum is an uninspiring annual production range. What I am missing is greater focus and emphasis of what is being done to ramp up production including more detailed production targets and reporting of ounces mined.
I will do as you suggest and send an email to Centamin.
Fluctuations in gold price is a smoke screen and not something Centamin can do to influence.
The real issue is number of ounces of gold mined and sold with a direct correlation between increased ounces and lower costs per ounce. Given the fixed nature of the costs more ounces equals more profits in total and per ounce.
So Mr Horgan what are you doing in the shorter term to increase the number of ounces mined?
I believe the main driver to improve CEY share price will be an increase in the number of ounces produced. This will have the advantage of proportionately reducing costs and increasing overall profitability but until that happens the SP will bob around where it is +/-.
Gold price to stay where it is would be great and to increase would be money for nothing. For it to fall back is a risk and something I very much hope doesn’t happen.
Sadly long awaited news of new licenses and positive news about Doropo were both damp squibs.
Although end of year results should be ok the market will still probably see a reduction in number of ounces produced year on year and less profit than the year before. Even if know it is actually a new dawn.
Like others I am anchored in, but content to give CEY SP time to mature, if nothing happens by end of 2nd quarter next year I will reappraise my position.
Hi Canetoad,
I understand your frustration but don’t agree with
"You can research the CEY fundamentals all you like, but without the gold price rising, CEY will not rise. I don't think many people here get that..."
In fact ignoring significant risks, CEY has three main drivers:
a) gold price
b) ounces produced
c) total costs (AISC + CAPEX)
As we have experienced, items b) and C) have a major impact on the SP and that is what Martin Horgan and CEY Management Team are working hard to improve.
Result of their efforts will be a profitable company even if POG retraces from USD 1,790.
Item a) can indeed have a big impact on SP, but is in fact either money for nothing (if gold rises) or a kick in the teeth (if POG falls).
Also something that Martin Horgan et al cannot control, but it is something they are making provision for by making a low cost gold producer.
I too share your frustration but as can be seen it is not only an increase in POG (welcome though that would be) that will improve the SP.
With the benefit of kind and erudite posts by Rebess, Cowichan, Sotolo and many others too many to mention and of course the guiding hand of Mr Tibbles, my thoughts with regard to CEY SP is it is clearly a function of:
a) gold price
b) production i.e. ounces of gold,
c) total costs (AISC + CAPEX)
It may also carry some benefit of "gold" in the ground.
So unless there is a major movement on a) b) or C) and bar any short term major buys or disposals the SP will languish were it is. We clearly need positive news on any or all to move the SP upwards.
I have followed CEY and been invested, as opposed to traded, for a number of years and seen plenty of ups downs, questionable management performance and skullduggery, so it is refreshing to have Martin Horgan and his team at the wheel but despite excellent work done so far they need to deliver increased production in terms of ounces of gold be it Sukari, Doropo or the new leases. The above to a large extent is stating the obvious it has taken me 10+ years to realize.