George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
There is no placing coming , this is simply prem putting pressure on canmax . There is an interview this morning com8ng out to explain . No plans for placing , but prem need to have headroom to get a good deal with canmax
So did lithium carbonate and hydroxide .
I can see hydroxide at $50,000 in a couple of months .
So if next year Geoerge gets to 10,000 tonnes spod a month , that will convert to 1400 tonnes lithium hydroxide .
Prem will get costs back of $10 m
Say canmax also get $10 m
1400 tonnes BYD sells for $70 m . Profit split $25 m each .
Prem make $25 m profit per month , which is $300 m a year . :£250 M profit
You can see prem being a billion pound company soon
Https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/east-asian-lithium-carbonate-prices-surge-on-chinese-strength
Did you see George answer to production targets at the presentation he just gave ,
Wow 2024 q1; 6000 tonnes a month spodumene
2024 q2 : 10,000 tonnes
That is 120,000 tonnes a year just from Zulu 1; just compare that to Pilbara who are a $9b company
Awesome news .
Jenko , we need to think of the bigger picture on calculations . Firstly this deal gives us some protection against a falling spodumebe price , so it may turn out more profitable if spodumene drops 25% . Also lithium hydroxide is rising quicker than spodumebe which is actually down in last month , so you may find the maths works in prem favour if spodumene is $4000 and hydroxide is $50,000 plus .
But it is clear prem will get money from canmax to expand production and drilling . So whilist this years plans are 40,000 tonnes sc6 we could see 70-80,000 sooner than before with pcanmax money . We are now secure with bigger potential if you tKe a 6 month plus view
Just looking at the can max ford deal in more detail
Can max from 2025 need to produce over 3 yrs 72,500 tonnes of lith hydroxide , that woudl be per year 24,000 tonnes a year .
Prem can produce per year around 7000 tonnes in 2024 and a good chance that will double for 2025 it could treble so prem could be producing all the lith hydroxide can max need for ford deal in two year. This could be over $500m to prem per year in a few years time.
Well what an RNS . Todays RNS has lots of messages in it
1. No placing coming because Canmax are going to increase the prepayment amount. My guess is $5m to get PREM through next few weeks and be able to continue looking at the EPO are with trenches and drilling
2. PREM is fully de risked because it has a multi bilion dollar company
3. Can max just did a bit deal with Ford https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/ford-picks-china-canmax-for-three-years-of-battery-material-supply
4. The new deal is different from last deal which will be scraped in that prem will get 50% of profit in making lithium hydroxide . roughly speaking it takes 7 tonnes spodumene ($4000 a toone) to make one tonne of lithium hydroxide ($46,000)
5. This deal protects prem in two ways , firstly if spodumene price drops , it buffers the effect and still means prem wil lbe highly profitable if spodumene falls a lot . secondly if prem's costs go up it is protected by this deal somewhat.
6. Clearly can max want more and more and more spodumene from prem . with such a big partner canmax is likely to fund further drilling of epo and i reckon build a second mine . Also with mutare rumoured to be amazing i reckon fudn further work in that area .
Eventually prem will have three plants up and runnign and produce my guess 200,000 plus tonnes of spodumene within a few years
6. Can max must have been shown evidence of results for the resource in the pit. , so i guess we will here very soon on the pit resource . So expect good news sometime to really push shares over 1p.
7. City institutions when told of resource and they see this canm ax deal will at long last start wanting to buy in to prem a highly liquid stock. in a few weeks the nms of prem increases to 3m and adds to the liquidity
so bottom line risk has gone , placing gone , profits in comming and so will be the city institutions . prem should get to 5p in next 12-18 months.
Raydaar ,
Your comments are so negative it begs believe . You will be eating humble pie when Prem hits 2 p this year , but you won’t be around then to be reminded.
Prem are heading towards revenue of $400 m a year I reckon in 12 months time . You forget the resource is coming soon , ramp up production .
I reckon in 12 months we will be at 100,000 tonnes a year .
Prem are now a producer and will mint money .
When you see mark fairbairn stockbox amazing video of plant you will understand it more . The plant looks superbly built and once we get the Jv sorters installed the quality goes up . Just see how complex the process is and you can see it would be amazing to get 6% straight off first production . It may be stark achieved it on first run but I would be surprised
But the plant is incredible piece of kit and Mark has done a fabulous job .
We await 10 am
so what is to happen n ext week
will the bags of concentrate turn out to be ****, will canmax walk away and will prem need a placing , or will canmax re do their deal and also provide small funding and will prem come out with a resource and can the bags be good enough to ship in next week or so . so much in the air .
so you place your bets and one thing is clear it i will be volatile.
i recon 0.9 by close of friday but i am always the optimist.
Jonny pc agree , Raydaar trying his usual to panic shareholders , what he does not understand or most t o be fair is this about the samples .
The mien is very complex and brilliant at same time . the concentrate produced after the first run is unlikely to be all SC6 , some will be SC5 or sc4 , but that is not a surprise because the plant and different circuits need tweeking . So if we produce lets say 1/3 rd of bags at SC6 and 1/3 rd SC5 and 1/3 rd SC4 that will be fine because all you do is put the lower grade back into the last circuit or two and reprocess it and get that going. Also the UV sorters will boost the lithium content and they should be about there now or soon . so we forget in June more equipment is arriving and this will boost not only output but the grade. So the doom and gloom here is totally misplaced . look to an exciting volatile week
Any guesses , if any one you have seen noels maps of zulu and where they drilled , it look like the resource when released will be for a small area of the zulu strike , perhaps 33% of strike in zulu. so if we get the 10mt targeted by prem indicated that will be excellent and any more will be superb because this is more than enough to run the mine for 20 years.
something to look forward to coming soon