Member Info for smudgedan

paid.

Looking for 16p here. Which is nice. http://www.shareprophets.com/views/13662/zak-mir-s-bulletin-board-heroes-88-energy-empyrean-energy-guscio-petrel-resources-proton-power-systems

bit more interest. Keep it up. Contract announcementor director buy wouldnt go a miss!

Spoke too soon. Now seen 2nd RNS with the results.

RNS on Friday usually spells bad news, but this one is pretty good news imv.

Yes, nice end to the week. Feels this one has been ready to go for a while now.

Decent sized buys today and yesterday and now a bit of blue!

235k buy there. Good price too.

Yes, I have high hopes for BOX which I think offers significant value at the current levels. GL

Yep, my rationale for getting in now is that once the refinancing goes ahead there is likely going to be a bit if a squeeze and can see the sp doubling. Of course, if it doesn't go ahead as planned then that will be a huge problem, but the sign are that it will so I think offers decent risk/reward.

In my enthusiasm I erroneously reported the RNS of 30th June as mention a £4m tax credit whereas it was actually an exceptional gain after tax per the paragraph below: "Subject to being able to conclude the refinancing of the AIB credit facilities, we will record an exceptional after tax gain of around £4m as a result of the debt to equity conversion. This, together with the intention to raise new equity as part of the refinancing, will restore shareholder funds to a positive value." Would be interested in your thoughts here

At the time of the last interim results released on 15th September 2014 the share price was around 5p, however to be conservative I have used a price of 4p for the following calculations. At that time the debt stood at £14m and the market cap was around £3m giving an enterprise value of £17m and an enterprise value share price of 22.69p per share. On the base they complete the refinancing as planned and they receive the £4m tax credit this will reduce the debt to £5m. Taking to in account the 12.5% dilution bringing the total shares in issue to around 86,135,000 using the formula above this would give an enterprise value resulting in a share price of 19.73p. Whilst you could argue that some weighting could be applied, what is abundantly clear to me is that 2p is no where near the right price for this share.

Like I cashed in chips too early here

R4E was trading at around 4p and an mc of around £3m before the latest finance problems, but this was still at a time when they were carrying the £14m debt. With that debt reduced to £5m it's got to be worth more than a £1.6m mc in my view, even taking into account the 12.5% dilution this would still only get us to a £1.8m mc based on the current share price. Think this is easily worth over 5p

Yep, fair point.

Yes, absolutely right. The question is how much of a premium they will be issued at.

Thanks for reviewing. What you have suggested makes sense to me. Will be interesting to see the strike price for the 12.5% being issued to AIB. They haven't mentioned any share consolidation as yet, but if the strike price is over the nominal value of 2.5p then that in itself may give the sp a shot in arm or at least raise the profile.

It appears that the penny is finally beginning to drop here.

I guess the uncertainty is over the price of the new equity and that the deal hasn't been finalised as yet, but on a risk/reward basis I am happy to be invested because I can see this edging up towards double figures once finalised.

somebody that has a solid understanding of company accounting practices/financing to determine whether my calculation below is correct. If it is, then we are laughing.