Re post Keithoz....read it and weep Trolls16 Sep 2023 16:30
RE: Repost of Keith Oz11 Sep 2023 05:28
Curious that several recent posts have been re-posted by bots posing as new board members. Not sure what the objective is, but the programme they are using is rubbish, having somehow managed to mangle the original posts in the process. To save our newly joined bots the trouble, I have Chat-GPT3.5'd the post originally by me, re-posted yesterday by SmartBeds.
"The author analyzed data from a presentation dated September 8, 2022, using a 12% discount rate to account for increased costs of money over the past year. They employed the Net Present Value (NPV) approach to assess the current value of future cash flows. In this analysis, they considered two scenarios with a 50% inflated capital expenditure: one involving a production rate of 10 million cubic feet per day (mmcfgd) with a net profit of $10.28 per mmcf, and another with 50mmcfgd and a net profit of $9.79 per mmcf. The 10-year NPV12 for the 10mmcfgd operation was estimated at $177 million (£138 million), while for the 50mmcfgd operation, it was $795 million (£619 million).
The author also discussed the possibility of using excess gas for power generation or exporting to Europe at a lower price of $10 per mmcf. They estimated a NPV12 of $3,225 million (£2,511 million) for this scenario, requiring 900 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas.
When applying these calculations to the company's shares, factoring in a 75% ownership share, and assuming 450 million shares outstanding, they arrived at a current value per share of 23p for 10mmcfgd, £1.03p for 50mmcfgd, and £4.18p for 250mmcfgd. Combining 50mmcfgd and 250mmcfgd resulted in a total value of over £5 per share.
The author further speculated that if the entire estimated recoverable gas volume of 1.8 trillion cubic feet (TCF) were utilized over ten years, the NPV12 would increase to $6,450 million (£5,023 million or £11.16p per share). They noted that extracting the gas more quickly would yield higher value due to reduced discounting effects.
Finally, the analysis only considered the output from the MOU-Fan & Ma sands at specific boreholes, without factoring in other potential resources across the license area."
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