Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
smalleyus ,
I've not checked your maths as there is no point. Moving target analysis on very few data points has no value, all you can do is a direct comparison of Q1 sales in 2020 and Q1 sales in 2021. Care to do this? As I did in a post the other day, you can do basic extrapolation on the data presented. It makes for good reading.
Moving more product earlier in the year is a good thing. If they "move too much" and reduce their stock then they process some more. If they "move too much" because they are selling more into the market that just means people want to buy it and are getting their orders in early.
The RNS release date has nothing to do with sales achieved during Q1/21. All it means is they took 15 days after the end of the quarter to process their sales data and release an RNS.
It sure is an excellent update. I'm also very interested in the sugarcane market and can't wait to see the sugarcane marketing material and the new sales that will generate in the future.
From the RNS: "In addition, a marketing campaign for coffee, sugarcane and other crops is planned to be launched in the upcoming month of May 2021."
From the RNS
· 8,872 tonnes of KP Fértil® sold in Q1 2021:
o more than 10% higher than management budget of 8,000 tonnes
o represents a 166% increase in total tonnage compared to Q1 2020
· Q1 sales performance keeps Company on track to meet 2021 sales target
o In 2020, 82% of the total sales were placed in the second half of the year, which has stronger sales seasonality
Simple extrapolation:
Q1 = 8872 tonnes sold.
If you assume Q2 will be the same then the first half of the year (H1) will be a calculated value of: 8872 * 2 = 17744
The RNS states: 82% of sales were in H2.
Then 2021 H1 calculated value of 17744 tonnes equates to only 18% of the predicted annual sales for 2021.
In the RNS released last year:
o Q1 CY2020 sold 3,334 tonnes, representing an increase on the 3,000 tonnes target
o Q2 CY2020 sold 6,525 tonnes compared to the 14,400 tonnes target
This means Q2 2020 was roughly double Q1 2020.
Therefore, using the above simple extrapolation, using the value of roughly double for Q2 2020 sales compare to Q1 2020:
Q1 2021 = 8872 tonnes sold.
Q2 2021 calculated: = 8872 *2 = 17744
Therefore: H1 2020 is estimated to be: 8872+17744=26616 tonnes sold.
Again, assuming the sales seasonality remains constant then 26616 tonnes is only 18% of 2021 sales.
18% percent of calculated annual sales is 26616 tonnes. 100% works out to be a rather nice number!
I'm looking forward to having this chat in 12 months from now. :)
I look forward to it.
Further reading: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Coffee_Day
I'm not expecting to see any large capital expenditure in the next report (hopefully soon). I suspect running costs will have either dropped or increased with a low probability of costs staying the same. Like you, I'm also struggling to work out their cash position with any degree of certainty. I think the next report out, which will cover the previous sales period, will show an increase in tons sold, hitting target. Going by their PR I think more farmers are trying the product and are getting good results. If their stated trend of 'once they try it the farmers come back for repeat orders' holds true then my bet is on a sales increase in the previous period.
Covid-19 is becoming a larger and larger factor in Brazil. I'm hopeful rural areas in Brazil will follow the same trend as other countries with a lower incidence of infection than in the densely populated urban areas. bopd, a local farmer, has previously reported farmers are taking the initiative and are locking down their own farms. I'm therefore hopeful the local, rural, infrastructure will continue to operate. Brazil does have a covid-19 problem, no one can deny that. This year will be a major test. Farms will need to continue to operate and to do so they need to look after their crops. I do think the system as a whole will adapt. There remains a strong export market for their products and where there is a will there is a way. While I do see covid-19 changing sales rates in the short term I do see sales growth happening, on average, over 2021.
Along with his very local knowledge, he is also the only one to refer to the product as "dust". I'm fairly certain quisad and Smalleyus are one and the same.
It's such a shame he has chosen to use the tone he does otherwise he would be a great source of info. If only he posted things like "when I drove past I saw the following". Or, "hey guys, I found this info, it doesn't make good reading for the BoD. What do you make of it? See link1 and link2.". He spends a serious amount of time investigating the company. Why, I don't know but he has an strong interest in posting here and some of the stuff he writes about is of use. I want to hear the good and the bad things about the company. I just wish he would alter his tone a bit and post info we can more easily follow up on.
If he reads this I would suggest he turn over a new leaf and join the community in a constructive manner. I for one would be delighted to hear all the negative things about the company posted with factual comments and links to allow us to follow up on. This way we can balance our research and analysis with those who have different viewpoints. We absolutely need people who are for and who are against (bullish and bearish) because that is what creates a market in the first place.
smalleyus: "Dont worry, this BoD is completely incompetent there wont be any money left soon."
That is a strong statement. Care to back it up with some substance and source references?
Please show why the board is completely incompetent.
Demonstrate why there won't be any money left soon.
bopd, don't listen too much to postings of some on anon discussion boards. People say more than they should and hide behind anonymity (not to mention those with an agenda). I myself have had COVID-19 and it is not a nice thing to have. I was bed-bound for a month and could not get up the stairs for a month after that. I've lost an elderly cousin to COVID-19 complications. My own business was decimated last year but we have since recovered to a normal trading levels. We still have the debt we took on to survive though and that will remain a millstone around our necks for another year or two.
To say the least, I was never impressed at Bolsonaro's actions and his following of Trumpism. The political infighting and lack of a science based approach to lockdowns is going to be a legacy the local people are going to have to endure.
Your "news from the ground" are your factual statements of the situation you find yourself in. The measures you take now to protect you and your friends and family are crucial.
How will this situation impact HMI? I remain long on HMI. I think the sales performance will be good and they will achieve target. I do see the business doing OK this year and I do think it will hit sales targets next year as the company grows. The risk with COVID-19 is the breakdown of critical infrastructure in Brazil. Should that happen we will be in a very different place and I pray that does not happen.
bopd, don't listen too much to postings of some on anon discussion boards. People say more than they should and hide behind anonymity (not to mention those with an agenda). I myself have had COVID-19 and it is not a nice thing to have. I was bed-bound for a month and could not get up the stairs for a month after that. I've lost an elderly cousin to COVID-19 complications. My own business was decimated last year but we have since recovered to a normal trading levels. We still have the debt we took on to survive though and that will remain a millstone around our necks for another year or two.
To say the least, I was never impressed at Bolsonaro's actions and his following of Trumpism. The political infighting and lack of a science based approach to lockdowns is going to be a legacy the local people are going to have to endure.
Your "news from the ground" are your factual statements of the situation you find yourself in. The measures you take now to protect you and your friends and family are crucial.
How will this situation impact HMI? I remain long on HMI. I think the sales performance will be good and they will achieve target. I do see the business doing OK this year and I do think it will hit sales targets next year as the company grows. The risk with COVID-19 is the breakdown of critical infrastructure in Brazil. Should that happen we will be in a very different place and I pray that does not happen.
Hi bopd, could you post a link to the Reuters report please? I'd like to see the scoring criteria used. A lot of these reports are heavily biased towards established companies with year on year cash flow growth and dividends.
Hi bopb,
A full lockdown is a really good thing as it protects people and lives and stops the spread of covid-19.
Can you confirm if essential supplies like food and feedstock are allowed onto the farm? And, more to the point of this thread, are you aware if fertiliser deliveries for crops are banned?