The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
I'm feeling quite smug about my last post on Friday. In your face Mystic Moff. ;o) Almost spot on - a 50k buy which completed that block, another order this morning, a rise in ask to 81. Interesting that the bid jumped higher quicker than it has in the past. Is that an indication that sellers are drying up and more is needed to prize those shares out of hands?
Looks like he's buying in £100k blocks at the moment. Or at least that's the way they're being put through. We had £100k pop up yesterday morning all around the same ask. The ask jumped again today, add up the two reported this afternoon and its £50k. So I think maybe another £50k has been placed but not filled/reported yet. We'll probably see the bid go up a tiny bit on Monday to fill that (assuming its there). Then probably another holding RNS and if the buying continues into Tues/Weds the ask will jump to the next level, maybe 80/81, with the bid at 76/77 to start with, slowly creeping up to fill the order. All dependent on another batch being bought of course. Its becoming very predictable, as long as the buying and steady selling continue as they have been. Hopefully the buying will continue, but the selling will slow down.
He's definitely creating an interesting twist. I think many expected a little rise on launch, then a retrace. Mr H has messed up that plan a bit. And Gixer's finds on Twitter hint of further rises soon. Then there's the expected sponsorship announcements that we're waiting for. This buying is filling in the gap while we wait for those things and giving it a higher launchpad should further news come. From everything I've read it sounds like when he sold a big chunk of his own company he basically set up an investment fund to diversify. He obviously doesn't need the cash to pay the mortgage and grocery bills, so he's probably thinking medium/long term SP and long term dividends. I know Moon always says that the HNWI know no more than regular PIs do, but I'm not sure. When you've got that much to invest extra info sources must open up to you. Good for him I suppose - long may his investment here continue to rise in value! :o)
Mr H's strategy might be to acquire X% for a maximum average of Yp. The flurry of early sellers from 56p to 62p might mean he got the bulk at a low price and he doesn't mind paying more later on to get to his target. Suppose the point I'm making is the maximum price he pays might not factor so much, its the average for the overall holding that's important. And that was helped out earlier on as people sold to reinvest in PXS. He might not mind paying 80p, 90p, whatever to acquire the final block up to the target as he knows he got the bulk at the lower price. As the selling dries up it could provide an opportunity to anyone who times it right.
...and we repeat the cycle again. :o) Jump in ask, bid stays lower, slowly rises to meet the ask to encourage selling, large order filled, hold steady, jump in ask, etc, etc. So the bid will probably stay 73/74 for now, then maybe 75/76 on Mon/Tues, if it is more buying that's driving it up. I suppose Mr H's maximum price and target holding must be interlinked. The more he's decided he wants the higher his maximum price will be; or maybe they're dependent on each other. As in my target is 5% if I can get it below x, but my target is 7% if I can get it below y, etc, and the max buying price is re-evaluated as holding targets are met. We'll probably see another RNS in the next 24 hours.
Its hard to say; every time Mr H buys the Ask jumps up, we have a few days at that level with the bid slowly closing, then it jumps again as he buys more. He pocketed another £100k worth yesterday so seems to be still buying. If the MMs think they can fill the order at 75p they'll hold it here, if the selling dries up they'll bump it up again. Looks like they're holding it for now. I was entirely focussed on when Mr H hit his target, but having read the tweets Gixer posted last night I'm now thinking I might just hold regardless of Mr H. Sounds like they're on the verge of an FDA decision in the US - that could open up a huge market and trigger an RNS.
Looking at the timings and the amount you can see exactly what's happened. Approximately mid-morning Mr H has felt a bit peckish, but he knows he needs to buy SiS shares first so he can relax and enjoy his lunch, so he's set himself a pre-12:30pm target to buy £100k's worth. And by God he's just managed it with 25 seconds to spare before tucking into a nice New York Deli on Rye* *Details may not accurately represent what happened or the sandwich chosen.
Mr H founded Homeserve, became very wealthy, sold about £65m of his stake in his company so he could diversify into other businesses. He still owns about +£150m of Homeserve - but in diversifying he's decided to put some into SiS. So far we know he's bought +1m shares and he seems to still be buying. So he obviously has a target amount he's trying to buy and he hasn't reached it yet. He's probably the main reason why the SP is continuing to rise, and as long as he's buying the trend should continue. He'll have done his homework and obviously believes they're a good investment at this price - the question is how high a price is he willing to pay to get the stake he wants. He's got deep pockets, but no doubt he's been advised on what SP still represents a good deal investment-wise. Can't imagine he's after a quick-buck either - he must be thinking long-term growth potential.
Here's our buyer... http://www.princes-trust.org.uk/about_the_trust/the_enterprise_fellowship/richard_harpin.aspx
Its been driven by Mr H's buying at the moment. He doesn't appear to be stopping either. The MMs keep playing with the bid to encourage selling, but the Ask is going up in decent size steps as Mr H buys more. When he stops it could remain stable or start to retrace, but all the signs are he's still buying. He'll either have a target amount or a maximum price he's happy to pay - its a race to see which one he hits first. For now I'm holding to see where we end up....
Mr H (or possibly someone else) places an order for a block of shares. The ask jumps up to the price paid, the spread widens, the bid is gradually bumped up over a few days towards the ask as the order is filled. Then we see the bulk buy (sometimes shown as a sell), get another RNS as a threshold is crossed, and repeat. The question still remains; will Mr H hit his holding target or maximum price he's willing to pay first? Assuming he's still the one buying he must be fast approaching 1.2m by now. How many more before Moon starts to worry about his intentions?! I think you only need 30% to force a takeover (correct me if I'm wrong) and he's fast heading towards 7% within a couple of weeks. BTW, I don't for a minute think that's what's happening here, but there must be a point when Moon starts to consider it a possibility.
He can have mine, for, erm....84p* *not legally binding
So that's official confirmation that he's still buying, but how many does he want, and what price will he have to pay to get them? I wonder if he spotted an opportunity of good liquidity early on due to the nature of how everyone got their shares ('free' via PXS). http://www.investegate.co.uk/science-in-sport-plc--sis-/rns/tr-1--notification-of-major-interest-in-shares/201308231507214272M/
But that facts are; before you sold you posted on PXS's board about sponsorship deals and Cavendish presumably to encourage buying/holding, after you sold you switched to this board (no posts over here before selling) and started pointing out that the bid was higher than reported (presumably to encourage selling), at that point you and everyone who sold thought they'd done well and expected a retrace, there was a bit of patting on the back, but then....an RNS revealing a big buyer, a hint at a mag tip-off, new products, etc. With every potential bit of good news you've posted more over here. Forgetting differing opinions, or feelings about Moon, or Twitter, the patterns behind what you're posting, when and where are linked to your strategy. Not saying its wrong, just saying its happening. The truth is, I'd like PXS to stay low for a bit. I hope it does as that suits my strategy, but I won't be posting any negatives about PXS on that board.
PS - No offence intended. :o) But let these positives play out. Ultimately out of all this new money coming into SiS a fair bit of it will transfer to PXS. The higher this goes the more demand you'll get on PXS as the remaining sellers re-distribute the $. A spike here could cause the same thing to happen to PXS. With that in mind I suggest you start ramping this bad boy up...its for your own good.
I'm fine with him being the CEO of both. You've been completely transparent about your strategy; you've sold your shares here, you don't want this to go up you'd prefer it to go down and you now want PXS to go up as you've just increased your stake there. You have negative things to say about Moon, but you're choosing to post them here, on the share you want to go down, not on the one you've just increased your stake in. Don't you think its odd that despite not holding any shares here you're now the most prolific poster and every post has been negative? You're packaging it as 'I'm here to save you' - but we know the situation. You've made your decision with regards to timing, but your posts could potentially unsettle our decision to stick around a little longer. In the long-term your warnings may be correct, but in the short term we've got product announcements, sponsorship deals, a possible tip in a share mag and a HNWI buying lots of shares - so for now I'm willing to let those positives play out before selling. And if/when I make that decision I'll wish everyone good luck and switch back to thoughts on PXS.
I assume you're referring him in relation to dodgy comms for PXS, your investment, and the place he's done it hundreds of times. As opposed to SiS, where you hold no shares, are awaiting a retrace, and he's only done it a few times? I'm not disagreeing with the sentiment, but if you're gunning for him, go for him as the director of the company that you still have a financial interest in.
PXS was at 0.55p earlier in 09 I think. I spotted it at about 0.88p, but didn't buy, I jumped in June 09 when I realised it was rising. Think I bought in at 1.1p originally, stupidly sold at 2.2p on 100% profit, then panicked and bought them all back and plenty more at 2.6p when I realised they were gaining momentum. Ironically the SP is back to my first buy in price right now. Of course I bought more on the way up (but stopped sub-5p) and more on the way down (starting at about 5p). So I suppose subconsciously I was thinking anything below 5p made it interesting given the potential. :o)
http://www.businessmag.co.uk/windsor-shoosmiths-advises-provexis-on-demerger/