Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The wider consortium will clearly get a chunk of the kit sales value, and ongoing consumables, but as far as the ongoing monitoring (which is the really sexy recurring revenue) goes I can't see why deepverge won't keep all that revenue?
this thread is bringing back bad memories...although hopefully we all learned from them
well your prediction is looking good so far ShearClass!
Thanks JammyC and ShearClass - useful info
I'm averaging around 75p and am looking to add more. Worth listening to the Vox Markets podcasts with Justin Waite and Vadim Alexandre where they cover this, and Justin gives his views on the numbers. Having gone into the numbers in detail on some of his other picks, I'd take them with a bit of a pinch of salt, but nevertheless there's clear potential for 10x from here in my opinion. Might not be within 2 years, but it could definitely perform strongly within that period and could get bought out at any time I guess
PeterS - re the number of private shareholders, the FD made it clear that it was hard to gauge because most hold through platforms like HL etc. My understanding of the number he gave was that it relates to the number of private shareholders that can be uniquely identified.
And the question about wireless technology was mine. The CEO said that no customer has ever mentioned wireless alternatives when discussing IHT with them, therefore it hasn't been flagged as a risk even though it theoretically is one (which he acknowledged). I personally suspect that for mission / safety critical applications like the ones Trackwise is working on, wireless just doesn't have enough of a track record yet for the customers to take seriously, or maybe not enough capability given that most of the applications to date seem to relate to power transmission.
Tiger
The capital raising was definitely unexpected and we'll just have to wait and see what they say in order to understand why it occurred and what the impact is.
I think there's a lack of clarity over the EPA approvals to be honest, as what they do have already is limited in scope and some people think they need to get the outstanding approval to start producing (but management seem to say otherwise and are clearly cracking on). It's a bit of a grey area to be honest, but the usual timescales are such that unless there are any unforeseen issues they should have the outstanding permit before they plan to start producing, and no-one credible doubts that they will get the approval.
A word of warning about hot copper - Blue Fox in particular is lying, disingenuous vermin in my opinion, who regularly presents his opinion as fact. I've had a number of "discussions" with him and he can't back up a lot of what he says. As things have turned out he's "right" to have been negative, but that doesn't mean he's right overall - he could just be lucky!
Hi Warno01
I've just taken a look at Burford to see what kind of valuation metrics might be applicable to LIT, but Burford's numbers seem to be quite volatile so it's hard to draw a conclusion other than that looks quite cheap too.
As you're in both, do you have a view on which is more attractive?
A good investment of an hour watching that thanks ShearClass (I only came across LIT after stalking you from the Trackwise board...). I'll look to buy in the next few weeks.
Cardinal - LTIPs usually result in new shares being issued rather than being purchased on market, and the RNS would typically (I actually think always, but don't want to be so bold) refer to the LTIP scheme when that is what a share transaction relates to
So I don't see any evidence for today's RNS / share purchase relating to an LTIP of any sort
Hi soulboy - re looking at the August RNS, I think you might be confusing revenue / sales with total income - the A$42.6 was total income, of which revenue was expected to be $39.7m. So revenue was actually slightly ahead of expectations.
Thanks - didn't really fancy sitting through the longer version with the other companies on first...
On the plus-side the static price is giving people a good opportunity to accumulate, but on the downside the opportunity cost is quite high at the moment given what's happening elsewhere in the market (eg covid testing stocks).
I'll confess to reducing my position in the last few weeks because of the latter (and I was also over exposed here). No doubt I'll time things appallingly and not be able to top back up here until after it starts rising again!
Amongst other things I've taken a smaller position in Kalium Lakes (static at c$0.15 since their bail-out placing but now seemingly making good progress) in case that starts to tick up ahead of SO4 (whilst they're a few months behind SO4 they do at least have all their permits already and there's probably less success priced in already). Also in Trigg and Reward Minerals. Trigg is still exploring effectively, but has hit great grades so far and is due to announce a maiden resource estimate for it's main lake (which is well located logistically) this year. Reward's lake is probably the best in Aus from a resource perspective, but not ideal logistically. It got its final environmental approval through last week though and looks massively undervalued relative to its closest comparable Agrimin in particular, and it should hopefully start to move once it's current rights issue is out of the way (Trigg is also having a rights issue currently).
Happy to share more thoughts on those if of interest to anyone, although there's lots of good discussion on the hotcopper boards (if you ignore the brigade who think that only either SO4 or KLL can be successful...).
I made it a similar number 1eyedman, and about 17m shares have been traded since in Australia (very rough sum). I haven't looked at UK volume but it's typically much lower. So, assuming a 50/50 buy/sell split, there could still be over 20m left from the underwrite.
Hopefully the environmental permit coming through (theoretically due "by" October) will increase interest and volume.
And fingers crossed things will heat up considerably once the overhang has gone!