RE: Lincoln6 Mar 2021 01:25
Joe, agree with all you've said.
"I had earlier asked what this may look like,but was disappointed that no-one was able to quantify the 'better than expected' scenario, especially given the number expecting it."
Assuming that BOTH a sidetrack and water injector is successful and assuming that AM is extended for another 3 years, I have an estimate of 18m barrels reserves for CPR as best case.
Based on 11k avg 2021, 13k 2022, 14k in 2023 and 2024. (Assuming sidetrack in late 2021, and water injection in spring 2022)
However, with the deferral of sidetrack, and questions about FWP going ahead, I'm unsure if there would be any/much reserves.
The deferral in sidetrack by a year would reduce reserves by maybe 2-3+m barrels (depending on how the bubble point keeps up).
As for resources, I'd be very surprised to see big resource upgrades from the FB of Lincoln or Lancaster than that which was revealed at tech review.
As for sandstones, again I wouldn't expect much. Yes there is oil within the sandstones, but not 100s of mills of barrels.