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Canarywharfy,
Not really. I already have some shares here to take advantage of oil price upside short term. Looking to sell around 42p.
But I won't add or have a long term investment here, at least until I see improvement in Tullows' operations and strategy.
You keep talking crypto scam, I bought ARB at 3.5p and sold at 11.7p. I do not have any crypto holdings currently.
According to Kibos update, financial close for Bodesley is Q1 2023.
We are already half way through Q1.
The announcement of financial close should provide more confidence in this company to get the 2nd project generating revenue.
Looking forward to this as well as the trading update on Pyebridge.
Kenya is only worth $3b after development.
Right now, it's worth like $500m, for the entire stake.
In short, Tullow has more debt than assets.
But debt is not a problem. Growth is the problem.
Last year's break even FCF was $74.5/barrel.
This year's break even FCF is $75.5/barrel.
Each year the underinvestment in TEN is making it more and more uneconomical to produce. Without Jubilee, TEN would be negative cashflow.
I don't think we'll see any news on Kenya until at least half year. Even if stake is sold, no FID until at least 2024.
What are investors looking forward to in this stock? Only thing going right for Tullow is oil price.
When will the turnaround happen? When's the Capital Markets Day?
"Based on the Site's latest actual performance results for August 2022, and assuming that the Site's performance and the market variables remain at or around those levels, it is expected that Pyebridge will generate total revenues for 2022 in the range of £1.8m to £2.1m with a gross profit margin of around 30%. The foregoing expected revenue is around 2x (or 200%) higher than initially modelled at the time of the acquisition of Pyebridge.
Furthermore, looking forward it is expected that once MED's current total combined generation portfolio of c. 28.3 MW are fully constructed and in steady state production, that the combined portfolio will generate total annual revenues in the range of £10m to £12m."
I want MAST to hit over £2m revenues. But from a realistic point of view, it will hit over £1.6m for 2022. Even at a bearish view of £1.4m revenue, the current share price is ridiculously undervalued.
At 20% gross profit margin, this will net close approx. £300k/year net.
For 2023, expect revenues to hit at least £2.5m from Pyebridge.
I value Pyebridge at over £5m at that rate.
With the expected growth potential, this should add further value to the business.
Only thing dragging this down is Kibo and the £1.27m due to Kibo.
The quicker MAST deals with this debt, the more at ease I'd be.
Otherwise, once in a lifetime opportunity to invest here, IMO.
Slift.
Well.. LC will be IPOing the waste to energy portfolios without any revenue stream...
I certainly won't touch it.
Regarding MAST.. I have patience until May.
We'll see how it does with debt and operations in the coming days.
An update is due soon.
GLA.
Slift
Kibo's assets are worthless except for MAST. I do hope Kibo continues to sell MAST as it's probably the huge controlling stake that is deferring investors to MAST.
Mast debt position at the moment:
£1.27m outstanding convertible loan from Kibo (due by June 2023?)
£350k from individual investor (2.5 years maturity)
£300k (up to £475k - £175k undrawn) from individual investor (2.5 years maturity)
£1.875m undrawn from individual investor (2.5 years maturity)
Mast should acquire more debt against it's Pyebridge asset to pay back Kibo. Then no real risk with this company.
This will then also provide funding to develop other projects.
Real worth of this company considering the investment and assets is £6-7m, not accounting for growth potential.
That is at least 50% upside not withstanding the growth potential of any of the assets in development.
Slift.
Lol CanaryWharfy.
Tullows' stake in Kenya is not worth more than $250-300m without development.
Also, the $10m allocation of CAPEX to Kenya this year (at January update) means that this project won't kick off this year at all.
Each year that passes, a lot of potential for Kenya is lost and development becomes less viable (or cost per barrel increases).
So even if Tullow manage to sell part of stake this year, the fact that another year is lost is more significant than you think.
There will be a buyer for Kenya nonetheless as oil prices are high and the oil prices in the future are to be sustained for at least another 3-5 years.
But to sell 50% of Tullows' stake for $150m is barely worth it. But Tullow have no choice. With 25% stake, Tullow could POTENTIALLY afford to develop Kenya over 3 years with forecasted CAPEX in the next few years. However, this will be detrimental to Ghana.
With continuous decline of production of TEN, Tullow may potentially have to downgrade assets on balance sheet once again.
However, this could be offset by the investment in Jubilee, increasing the value of assets at Jubilee.
So has there even been any significant changes to balance sheet?
Looking at HY 22 results, the balance sheet hasn't improved the slightest over the past 2 years, but instead maintained. Net assets are still negative.
Looking at the January update, going forwards, $30m for decomm is to be set aside each year. This is equivalent of an exploration drill each year.. This requirement hasn't been mentioned in past years, but it just goes to show that Tullow are ONLY focussing on their Ghana assets - the whole life cycle, until decommissioning.
There needs to be significant change to strategy, and earlier the change the better. Should take advantage of the oil prices the coming years to grow and come out of the hole they have dug over the past 5+ years.
Looking forward to Capital Markets Day. Question is.. when?
Just imagine what would happen to Tullow if oil price hits $60 or below for extended period of time in 2023.
As it stands, with the CAPEX, decom commitments, FCF would potentially be wiped and be negative.
That's why I'm not so keen on Tullow. 2 years to recover from crisis and it seems like no progress has been made.
It's quite funny really.
"Net Zero, climate change, 2C target" blah blah blah is only relevant within EU and America.
No matter how hard they try to limit climate change, they cannot change human behaviour of 8 billion individuals.
I am in Mexico where petrol is 22 pesos/litre (90p). The cars here pollute so much that some don't even have catalytic converters. The factories are consistently polluting the atmosphere without any proper abatement technology. There's wildfires and I've seen countless times of individuals burning trash or fields here - huge fires that just simply pollute the world.
Anyone who thinks that Climate change can be controlled is in Cuckoo land. And for America and EU.. it's just ammo to tax major profitable corporations for $$$ and to present a public face that they are doing everything to lead the world in climate change.
In reality, they are doing nothing and climate change will continue.
MAST needs to confirm if the operational updates are quarterly or half yearly!
An update would be fantastic as no doubt the results will be good.
Will Mast keep the profitability following the construction of the other projects?
Lol Canary,
"The share price is way lower than what I paid for. When will we get a decent price?"
Think you'll be waiting a long time to get back to the price you bought at.
I think even world class discoveries in Guyana won't take Tullow back to the highs it once was.
But at least you have a portion of what you initially invested.
Should be good results as power requirements in the UK have been consistent and has been a very wintry period.
If MAST are able to get all 27.8MW of their portfolios running by 2025, this would generate close to £8m in revenue. Huge upside growth potential.