Member Info for SlickMongoose

More great results today. No comments in the last 6 months, probably a good sign!

Entitled "Trading statement" but only contains buyback info?

Yeah it's the duration mismatch between assets and liabilities that's causing problems for the banks. Shouldn't be an issue for LGEN unless there's something I'm missing, the liabilities are long duration and matching cashflows to liabilities should be literally the main focus of an annuity provider.

Having said that the accounts are complicated enough that it's difficult to say for sure.

They're not selling LDI to random people off the street. The pension fund managers who bought them are experienced qualified professionals who should know what they are doing.

Yeah I think someone at the WSJ likes trading oil options.

Tony, I like you and your posts are very informative, please keep posting.

There are a lot of people on these forums who post just to wind people up and get a reaction. Best not to let them get to you.

Usually it's bad results that cause these forums to become argumentative, not good ones!

Capital spend coming in below budget with production at or above expectations and no nasty surprises is about as good as could possibly be expected. The only real negative here is commodity pricing which is out of the board's control.

If these gas prices persist then in my opinion they should be cutting any gas-related capex and focusing on oil.

Back in December 2019, just before the pandemic, SDI bought Chell Instruments which was a major acquisition at the time and did a lot of business in the aerospace sector. Then the pandemic hit and aerospace disappeared.

Right now global air travel is getting close to where it was in 2019 and at some point aerospace spending is going to increase. I wonder if there's some extra benefit coming to SDI from that?

In my opinion the buybacks (both here and at BATS) have been a mistake. In a declining industry the focus should be on paying off debt in order to protect the dividend for as long as possible. The result has been a big increase in the cost of debt (as rates have gone up) which will impact future financing.

IMB could have the net debt down to 0 in less than a decade based on current cash flows, along with consistent increases in the dividend as interest costs reduce, and once the debt is gone all the excess cash could be paid out to shareholders.

"Freeport LNG Restart: BP-chartered tanker Kmarin Diamond has become the first tanker to dock at the export plant since the June 8th fire that shut it down"

https://twitter.com/SergioChapa/status/1624127114243981313

In 6 months it'll probably be close to that, if oil prices stay high.

Feels like a different class of assets than usual. Normal acquisitions are lots of old, low production wells with low decline rates, these seem a lot newer.

I look forward to the resumption of proper buybacks, hopefully tomorrow.

I don't think the dividend policy has changed, it's still supposedly sustainable at $40 oil, it's just the buybacks and debt reduction have allowed the dividend to increase.

Weren't expectations $5bn profit and $3bn buybacks? Seems slightly adverse.

Something to do with EU sanctions on Russia being less restrictive than expected I think.

Presumably they mean compared to Exxon rather than Shell.

Ace, I agree with you about the gas pricing on that slide, it's very optimistic.

Decline rates are a bvit trickier, obviously current decline rates are higher than that, but it's worth noting that the rate of decline declines over time, newer wells have a higher decline rate and older wells have a lower decline rate. So as the portfolio of wells gets older the decline rate will reduce.