If it looks like sh*t, smells like sh*t then its probably...18 Apr 2023 13:47
Obviously frustrated by selling a massive holding a couple of weeks ago as would have made absolute bank yesterday, but investing is a marathon not a sprint, so happy with my decision to sell before the results as this would tanked below 50 today if it wasn't for the "offer".
The timing of the offer a day before the results was incredibly suspect - there was no "press speculation" whatsoever, unless thg leaked it themselves and pretended to act by addressing this. Clearly was done to prop up the share price on today's abysmal results.
Apollo have deep pockets, but they deep pockets for a reason - they do not overpay for the businesses and I would be amazed if they tabled any solid offer before being able to see today's results for FY 22 and first 23Q. Either way, even if there would be an offer, their narrative would be "you do not have a viable business here but you do have some synergies with our current assets so we'll throw you a lifeline". 200p chat is an absolute joke, on the back of today's results thg would be fortunate to get 125p. 100p would be more likely.
If Apollo tables a solid intention to purchase before 15-May (which I highly doubt), 90% possibility that MM would reject it. SP would tank - Sauidi's/Moulding may pick up the pieces then and take it private on the cheap (at a marginally higher bid than Apollo, admittedly).
But the headline today is that the growth has stalled, operating costs are bloated and MM's time is running out - why would a PE firm pay 200% premium on that?
Happy to stand corrected... Personally watching from the sidelines for the time being until 15-May, then will reassess.
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