RE: Hold1 Jun 2026 18:32
H1 2026 Wash.Me revenue grew +17% for the full half, compared to +13.3% in H1 2025. The business was clearly accelerating before April.
In April, growth slowed sharply to just +3%. The company was very clear that this was due to lower consumer confidence caused by the Middle East conflict — the same factor that hit Photo.Me (-17% in April). They also noted recovery in May.
I wasn’t surprised Photo.Me was affected, but I was a bit surprised Wash.Me felt it too. Still, this looks like short-term noise. The long-term investment thesis remains fully intact.
ME Group 5-Year Profit & EPS Forecast (with £18m annual buyback)
Base Year (FY2025 - ended 31 Oct 2025)
Revenue: £315.4m
Profit Before Tax: £78.2m
Net Profit: £56.6m
EPS: 14.91p
Shares outstanding: ~376.3m
Key AI Assumptions for the Forecast
Revenue growth: 6.5–7.5% p.a., driven by continued Wash.Me expansion (high-teens % potential), Photo.Me recovery, and new machine deployments.
EBITDA margin: Gradual expansion from ~38.2% to 40–42% thanks to operational leverage and higher-margin laundry mix.
Net margin: Stable to slightly improving (~18%).
Share buyback: £18m per year (at assumed average price of ~£1.50/share → ~12m shares repurchased annually).
Tax rate: ~27.5%.
Conservative earnings growth with meaningful EPS accretion from buybacks.
Forecast Table (in £ millions, except EPS and shares)
Year,Revenue,Growth,EBITDA,PBT,Net Profit,Shares (m),EPS,EPS Growth
FY2025 (Actual),315.4,-,120.4,78.2,56.6,376.3,14.91p,-
FY2026,337,+6.8%,130,85,61.8,364.3,16.97p,+13.8%
FY2027,360,+6.8%,141,93,67.2,352.3,19.08p,+12.4%
FY2028,385,+6.9%,152,101,73.0,340.3,21.46p,+12.5%
FY2029,411,+6.8%,163,109,79.3,328.3,24.16p,+12.6%
FY2030,439,+6.8%,175,118,86.1,316.3,27.23p,+12.7%
Summary 5-Year Outlook (FY2026–2030)
Cumulative Revenue growth: ~+39%
Net Profit growth: ~+52% (CAGR ~8.8%)
EPS growth: +82.6% (CAGR ~12.8%), significantly boosted by the ongoing £18m annual buyback (reducing shares by ~16% over the period).
Important Note: This forecast does not account for potential regulatory risk.
This remains a conservative base case. The buyback alone adds roughly 3–4% extra annual EPS growth.
YearRevenueGrowthEBITDAPBTNet ProfitShares (m)EPSEPS GrowthFY2025 (Actual)315.4-120.478.256.6376.314.91p-FY2026337+6.8%1308561.8364.316.97p+13.8%FY2027360+6.8%1419367.2352.319.08p+12.4%FY2028385+6.9%15210173.0340.321.46p+12.5%FY2029411+6.8%16310979.3328.324.16p+12.6%FY2030439+6.8%17511886.1316.327.23p+12.7%
Summary 5-Year Outlook (FY2026–2030)
Cumulative Revenue growth: ~+39%
Net Profit growth: ~+52% (CAGR ~8.8%)
EPS growth: +82.6% (CAGR ~12.8%), significantly boosted by the ongoing £18m annual buyback (reducing shares by ~16% over the period).