Member Info for simonpf

Good question Damac24, like openbox, iam not currently “invested” just looking for further weakness in the SP to trade how about yourself, always interesting to see new posters views.

Mrp, I did believe, as many did, what the CEO was saying, that was before the share price destruction.

For a commercial loan on the 5 million required per year for three years the compounded interest @10% would be £1450/day interest for the first year then double/triple year 2 & 3 so any new revenue would be swallowed up by interest, then you still have the original costs too, for that reason it has to be a fundraiser or total restructuring of the company. Basically any new investment will take all future revenue leaving existing shareholders with nothing but dilution. Watch for the slow rise on zero volume for the discounted raise.

20% spread ?, this went from 25-27 to 26-31 after 4 shares were bought yesterday, are they trying to work a rise for the next “discounted” funding like last time.

Mondul, that “cash” seems to be shares in this company held by that another company in which case that 70million will be worth a lot less now aka a “Gravy train “

Search “shareholder equity”

https://celadonpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Celadon_2023_Annual_Results_v1.4.pdf

Https://celadonpharma.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Celadon_2023_Annual_Results_v1.4.pdf

Just over three weeks to go, the SP and trades would indicate finance yet to be sorted, last time the SP spiked to 50 from 24 so they could “discount” the raise at 40p which has yet to be breached. The new CFO has got to get his machete out and cut costs. 1.5 million paid in long term incentives 2022/3, plus 250k/year for ceo and what’s the “share based reverse acquisition cost of 6.4 million in 2023 any ideas anyone. All when shareholders have lost fortunes. New investors want a return, what about the already invested. 50 million+ in capex and profit still years away,

These AIM shares are like balloons with holes them, they need to be constantly pumped up with positive news, when there’s no news (air) the balloons deflate.

They have been negotiating this new contract for months and release the news as more “air” required as the sp was at 24p.

As you say robm they must cut costs, departing CFO has presided a 75% wealth destruction to shareholders in the last 6 months, so it’s no wonder his leaving.

Kvcm3 your comment regarding the CEO photo, yes I agree and would recommend THCV which is an appetite suppressant combined with CBD for the food addiction.

Spy , I’ve been there and seen it, the opposite of what you state, maybe do a little research, start with Humboldt county . https://youtu.be/gDzA49Ao9ug?si=PixlvNLkk1WfKt7i

Investors want a return and someone has to stump up for all the cash burn 12k/day for the next two years min before any profit horizon can be seen and that’s if everything goes to plan.

Obviously what CEL are doing is a Nobel cause and helping patients as the ceo keeps saying, I do donate to charity but here to invest with a view to get a return.

Free Shares dished out to directors and staff (which they are selling) .ceo on 250k/year.

The facilities should be impressive after 50 million capex ?

Only 63k revenue for first six months 2024 ? Doesn’t cover costs for a week ?

European contract, how much money are CEL actually making, if any, when valeos have capex, do all the work, in a country with higher costs.

Supply to US when they big oversupply problems ?

More capex required for Phase2 ?

Sector not currently in favour for investment.

Can’t see CEL being here this time next year.

So we’re back where we were prior to the latest fundraiser, small buys, chunky sells with late reporting of large previous sells & just posts from Mr P & myself.

There are no director/executive/staff buys as there is a share incentive scheme where another company Celadon Subco hold 80 million shares that get dished out periodically to staff, I think these shares are responsible for the sells we’ve been seeing as the staff see how dire the situation and have been selling down their free shares. Hard for new investors to pay for this together with 10k/day in wages with no profit due for at least two/three years in a bombed out sector. Waiting for the low twenties to re enter here unless a white rabbit appears from a black hat.

The contract is from a danish supplier, is the customer is in Germany !, no revenue from this contract until next year, not seen any information of how the phase2 build is going since it was mentioned in RNS last October, anyone have news on this ! .

Welcome to another newbie nativeboy 8million revenue from new contract, CEL takes 5-10% cut so 4-800k, together with 1.2 million revenue from their facility, so they have potentially 2 million revenue if everything goes well, current cash burn 4-5 million/year plus capex. Now the excitement is over let’s see what happens next.

The big question , what is the margin between the cost of Danish marijuana and what they are charging the European customer bearing in mind energy, wages etc all more in Denmark, the second question, this is due to be supplied H2 to the customer and they haven’t even got permission to export/import cuttings, once cuttings received its 4-5 months before harvest .

The only reason for the rise was to get a discounted fundraiser, 105 for the last one three months ago what price for the next one in four months, been a nice one to trade, sure LTH not happy.

The 20k trade this morning is a “in the know buy” that and yesterdays action indicates some sort finance sorted and this is no longer speculative.

Bit of a round trip today 35-50-36, Price action +30%- -2% indicates there was an RNS today but us PI’s didn’t get to see it , there was also a message from the Caledonpharma handle earlier which was taken down did anyone else see it, the message said something like” finance sorted this will rocket “!

https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/celadonpharma/

Spy, I see the potential but currently the production is a fraction of the 10 tonne potential you quoted hence the need for a big raise for additional capex to get it there. Some news on how they will serve the 23 million European contract may help.

“Given limited capacity at its facility, it has been exploring alternative options to supply pharmaceutical grade cannabis to its European customer”

Spy CBD = HEMP, it’s marijuana here !

Last stats 2021 = 329 tonnes = 329000 kilos

https://releaf.co.uk/education/cannabis-101/statistics/how-much-cannabis-does-the-uk-export

For perspective, uk exports 300000 kilos+/year, cel on track to produce 150, at scale the business could be profitable, 15-20 million required for next year or two to keep lights on and additional capex before any profit seen here, 150k/month to serve that funding as a loan which is roughly the current revenue which seems unsustainable, can’t see it in the numbers myself, interested to see what they come up with.

Does seem less dire for near term and should hopefully give a bit of breathing space to get the funding sorted, the licence to grow should be a licence to print money, hopefully they can figure it out.