Member Info for Simon_Said

Lawrence it's not about whether I think that's a sensible prediction, it's about the impression that that kind of rampy language gives to new investors. It's also not terribly compelling without a bit more text to flesh out the prediction.

Of course I think this share will be worth many multiples of its current price once the political stuff is fully put to bed and the material realities of the DFS and front end engineering work begin to dominate the discussion more. If I didn't think so I wouldn't be invested here.

But I think it behoves us to talk in detailed, sober terms about where we're at, and I'm with earache to that extent. I just think he's been more downbeat that necessary. I am not willing to be party to attacking an individual poster whose intentions are not in doubt. We all get depressed and down, I just don't think public forums are the place to vent that.

Have a good weekend all.

Firstly, not Barclays. Secondly, Lloyds own Halifax, which is why both of them are affected.

Third, 'banned' is not true and sensationalist nonsense. Reabold explain what happened on their website:

https://reabold.com/investor-relations/faqs/

Since then I discussed this issue with Camarco (Reabold's PR reps) at the Reabold investors drinks, and was told that they have engaged legal help to get this one outlier banking group to correctly classify Reabold shares.

No other banks or trading platforms interpreted the new European rules this way, only Lloyds group. It is not because of any problem they have with Reabold, but rather some vaguely worded parts of the MIFID II directives that came into force on 3rd January 2018.

Seeing how the intervention of the British Chamber of Commerce kicked the Slovenian state into gear regarding Ascent's permits (I am not an investor there, just a bemused spectator), I think this should give us some comfort that EU nations who drag their feet on permitting issues where the applicant is within the law can be pressured into action. It's not a direct corollary, but Slovenia is in the European Union and there were accusations that their laggy permitting was related to Russian interference in the state (bribery, corruption, nods) and ultimately this did not win out. The British Chamber of Commerce isn't the point - it's that international legal norms matter and interventions like this (could be from a number of different bodies) can and do affect the passage of key licenses.

The fact that Cinovec is in an EU nation has always been a plus point for EMH, and despite Babis it still is. Countries who value their EU membership must abide by international legal norms. As many here have stated, the likely outcome here will be a higher royalty rate (which a lot of us feel is ethically very necessary anyway), and a more protectionist policy for future resources by the Czech state (none of our business!).

Much as I appreciate Earache's contributions to this board, I feel these constant doom-and-gloom essays are about as unhelpful as the daft '10 bagger' ramping.

Czech parliament resumes in a few weeks. The important mining strategy debates 'later this year' is only a maximum of 4 months away, and there will be news along the way. Crucially there are positive signs that the government is moving to a less dogmatic, more pragmatic approach now.

I am particularly distressed to see that long paragraph about how if any significant portion of the mine is developed, we'll all be diluted out of the benefits etc. If you really believe all that, I am not sure why you are still invested. Then another paragraph follows detailing how the shares will stagnate and slip. I cannot imagine the rationale for posting this on a share you hold personally.

The reason for concentrating on a small part of the mine at this stage is to make funding the project more manageable, but also to build equity in the business. If the portion that is initially developed is successful and low-cost, then EMH market cap will expand enough that either the business/asset can be sold, or new debt models open up (very different funding landscape for a proven producer compared with the stage we're at now), or new shares can be issued with the huge buffer of a market cap that will include a premium (as is usual for a resource in production, as opposed to the risk discount applied pre-production).

Given the low market cap (under £27m at present) and the share price before the Babis incident, there is plenty of scope for positive movement as the machinations of getting thing square with the Czech government pick up pace. If you don't agree, you're not being paid dividends or interest on these shares, so I'm not sure why you'd hold them. I think the timescale for the political problems is now quite attractive, being just a few months.

I hope this isn't taken as an attack because I enjoy your contributions here, and I agree that nobody benefits from silly posts about 10 baggers. But you seem to be contributing long downbeat screeds every few days, and I don't think it's anymore helpful, particularly for a low-liquidity share where small sells can and do move the needle.

ATB.

Reabold's drills are offshore so this is already the case. No local authority has jurisdiction. Not going to comment on that story as that's more political, but at least in this case we don't have these worries.

The main regulatory hurdles for offshore are, quite rightly, environmental (in terms of making sure operations do not cause harm). I would not want to invest in anything that didn't meet stringent environmental standards and am happy to hear, regarding Colter, the operator has complied with EA amendments to the drilling plan.

OGA approval itself shouldn't be a problem for these conventional offshore projects so long as all environmental amendments are made.

Anyone who just watched Angus's planning approval should take note for its relevance here. Reabold's UK drills are offshore, so far less controversial and difficult. Yet even Angus are managing with an onshore well in a green area.

The key is that, as the chairman stressed, if relevant OGA and EA recommendations are followed properly, permission for drilling in the UK cannot be denied simply because locals don't like it.

And with our UK drills, they're not even under any local authority's planning jurisdiction, due to being offshore. Just the OGA, and the EA.

Second interview is up:

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/10056/bango-plc-s-ray-anderson-discusses-2018-s-commercial-deals-10056.html

I believe Ray has done a few of these to combat the misunderstandings of the market over some of Bango's recent moves.

Took some more this morning, happy to have gotten it under 20p. Was spurred to buy after yesterday's interview. Only about a month to go before Keith should be having conversations with the new government and getting things moving again. Finally starting to get exciting again here.

Convenient timing for this as Malcy is talking to Steve today and likely will be updating on Upland and the Wick prospect in the next couple of days.

Thanks Degsie, this was a great read. Of particular interest:

' Investors I think struggle to understand, and for good reason, they struggle to understand the lithium chemical conversion is part of the equation. It’s easy to look at the mining, that’s quite transparent, they are from the brine and spodumene aside, but really what is the determining factor for the industry right now is how much conversion capacity really is in China. So, we spend all our time in China building our own an internal view on this. That view is the –we’re about 640 thousand tonnes of capacity listed. Now, listed in nameplate does not mean that’s actually there and that’s a key thing really for us the real capacity number within China right now this year is about 220,000 tonnes, so investors would read 650,000 tonnes that would mean lithium oversupply, “we knew it, let’s –let’s get out of the industry.” The reality is that real number is about 220 and then that’s operating at capacity. So, the capacity is probably, we could probably half that again to get the amount of production that we would want to see, then all of that production in China is not necessarily quality to go into batteries. So, that’s another hurdle that the industry has to go over and so, the further you go down the supply chain, the harder it is to –to make the right kind of products for the industry. And that will naturally restrict supply. I think that is the key thing for investors to understand.'

Similar kind of line to Joe Lowry. Essentially that the oversupply fears stoked by Morgan Stanley are demonstrative of a simplistic understanding of the lithium supply chain and conversion process.

Keith is great in interviews, always glad to see him doing press. Such a measured and moderate individual. Just natural confidence knowing the strength of the asset itself, not the usual AIM cowboy bluster.

No coincidence that Keith leads with the techy stuff. I see the metallurgical/flowsheet improvements as the dark horse in all this, as the team on the ground have been quietly beavering away during all this political turmoil and making real, appreciable differences to the economics of the project. That affects not just direct capex, opex and future revenue, but also in the near-term the chances of getting finance and on good terms. With the lithium price fluctuating and analysts arguing over its direction, it's never been more important to show low opex numbers.

Using the unexpected extra downtime to keep working on process was the right move, and the delay in beginning the DFS has to be seen in that frame: the numbers in the DFS, if anything, will be better for this extra time to work things out on the engineering/metallurgical front.

Cheers Chris. I feel it's important that people here, especially new investors who aren't as heavily researched into this company, understand that the RNS coming shortly about the workovers is NOT the proper numbers for the Gaelic 'Reabold California' deal, but rather just a natty little extra Reabold got as part of that deal. Would be quite daft to see, say 12 BOPD on a workover well and someone shouting "Ah it was all for nothing, what a ****e stock, I'm selling" etc just because of the workovers, before the actual drills from the California deal are drilled (West Brentood, Grizzly Island, Monroe Swell drill).

Despite this I'm quite sure at least one idiot will be on here that day saying that, but at least I've said in advance to adjust your expectations for these little workovers. Aforementioned idiot/s will have no defence when justly mocked.

That said even low BOPD figures for the 4 workovers is good cash for Reabold, given the low cost of working over the wells and tiny ongoing production costs (owing largely to the shallow depth).

The main California drills, UK drills and Romanian drills, and yet-to-come new deal/s from the current cash pile will all take the focus away from these workovers pretty rapidly before year-end, so it's all academic really.

Nope, just panicky PI's as usual. Yesterday was risk-off across AIM, seems to have been fear spreading as a result of the AST disaster RNS. Much healthier day today, and a very confident RNS this morning.

Key to me is the RNS reminds us all of how far advanced Sonora is. It's really a world a way from the other lithium juniors, being so close to construction, already permitted, offtake agreements already in place and that absolutely key low operating cost. The front-end engineering work now going on is just adding to this difference, again making this so much more tangible and real than most of this kind of junior lithium play.

The problems around finance that bit Bacanora affect all lithium juniors and even majors right now, the only difference is the Sonora project is at an absolute key stage where funding is required for construction, it was very bad timing for this little blip (caused by Morgan Stanley). But the project is so strong. Secker is showing a lot of confidence and I can completely understand why. Meanwhile Morgan Stanley remain total outliers in their forecast and there will be more reports from other banks and analysts piling up over the coming months to put these fears to bed.

Forgive the repetition if any of you also read ADVFN...

The dip appears to have mostly been accounted for by large delayed trades that popped up days later, which suggests to me it may have been Gaelic clearing their 25% selling allowance on the back of the recent share price rise. They seem to be done as it's now moving normally again. That is great news for Gaelic and for Reabold if that's what it was, we'll know in a few days if there's a TR1.

News from the workovers will be close now, wouldn't expect it quite yet as it takes time to clean up and dewater the wells, and stabilise a reportable flow rate. Expect each of the 4 wells to return something in the tens of barrels per day (I expect 10-50 bopd per well), but at extremely low capex and opex (vastly lower than a regular deep well drilled from scratch). Stephen explained to me that these were 'cowboy wells' poorly drilled by their creators, hence the remediation that we call 'workover' projects to get the best out of them. They are shallow and therefore cheap, but don't expect 'gushers'. They will provide a nice operating income for Reabold which is a great start to the drilling campaign.

Key point is that these workovers are a mere 'bonus' Reabold got in the Gaelic deal, which was actually about the new Monroe Swell drilling (not to be confused with the Monroe Swell workovers), West Brentwood and Grizzly Island projects. These are all significantly larger. West Brentwood will be spudding very shortly, so that's the next major milestone.

That's aside from the 3 UK drills and the tantalising project in Romania. And the small matter of all that unused cash still in the bank from the last placing, which Stephen and Sachin were strongly hinting at the investors drinks last week is about to be used for a new deal. Anyone else who was there can likely vouch for that last point.

Yep a confident forward looking statement from Secker. He knows the strength of the asset will ultimately win through. Sonora's advanced permitting state, location and low operating cost is simply too appealing to be ignored for long. Not budging an inch.

That's completely absurd and not how currency works in international businesses. I'm not going to indulge a politically motivated rant anymore. Take your Brexit debates to Twitter or something.

Oh good it's 'pull random numbers out your arse' time.

I don't think mines in the Czech Republic or Mexico are particularly affected by Brexit, lol.

The Morgan Stanley report has caused problems for all lithium miners big and small. But I've seen no analyst support for their forecast and myriad examples arguing against it. I think this will pass.

Right. And the more Bango leverages Audiens tech to be able to provide marketing insights to its DCB clients, the more likely they are to consider Bango good value. Value isn't just about transaction fee, but how much Bango can help with growing overall transaction volume for a business on the platform.

Oh and lest we forget the offtake agreement for the product too. Between that, low LOM opex and positive permitting situation, this remains a very attractive asset and will not be sold for a song, as Secker demonstrated already by cancelling the last placing.