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Https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ukraine-russia-war-threatens-cut-aid-election-2024/

The west is pouring hundreds of billions into Ukraine. Europe is shutting industries rather than trade with Russia. China and India are enjoying record discounts on commodity prices. Frankly Ukraine is turning into what Afghanistan was to the USSR and what Korea was to the Tsar before that, a huge cost that dramatically weakens those involved to the benefit of those on the sidelines. Among Western leaders only Trump and Orban can see this. Biden, Scholz, Macron and Boris will go down as the guys facilitated China's rise to be the number one superpower.

Almo is desperate to get his judicial reforms now he has a majority in the senate. So desperate that he doesn't care what that does to the peso. It's classic socialism. Hand out more money than you can afford, neutralise and opposition, including the courts, and then blame those that run your companies and independent institutions when everything ultimately deteriorates. The only way mexico is different is the way almo is effectively sharing power with the cartels who seem to be doing an excellent job of perverting democracy through intimidation and murder. Almo's reforms will basically let the cartels choose judicial appointments.

Https://thehill.com/opinion/4707718-will-peru-become-latin-americas-next-haven-for-organized-crime/

The thing about socialist policies, is that they eventually bankrupt the country. Sheinbaum intends to extend Almo's socialist cartel friendly policies. If so I cannot see things being good long term for the peso. China may be pouring in investment money for the moment, but if Trump clamps down with tariffs in order to protect American jobs then imo the pesos direction will decline precipitously.

Market mechanics of a drop out of the index. I'd wager derivatives play a part. Expect a bit of turbulence until the reshuffle settles down.

EU elections in June are going to shape the European political landscape for the next few years. The political realities about the impact of the war will start to dawn on people wanting to keep their seats. If Trump gets in as well then short of a war hawk creating a false flag event to turn this war global I think Ukraine will be forced to accept a sort of Minsk 2 agreement. Make up your own mind what you think this will mean for FXPO.

@JWBellamy

'Shareholders are fortunate to still be able to sell above 50p imo'

Is their good fortune your miss fortune?

IMO shorters should be grateful they can still close their positions for less than £1.

Https://www.ft.com/content/98f37cee-aaf6-47c5-b032-bde2968e00f0

Very sad what is happening in Ukraine. It may have maintained it's pride, but at what cost. Front line soldiers are now being told there will be no rotation until active fighting stops. How many years will that be? How many years will it be before they can be reunited with their emigrated families? Meanwhile the country is being bombed into the dark ages.

@Pockerchips if Poland were to follows Hungary, Slovakia and Greece out the door I think the game would be up. Italy might also follow Argentinas model of just defaulting.

Alex. You make a good point with the mexican comparison. I do however think the economic damage being inflicted on the EU has the potential for its demise. Too many countries joined the club expecting eternal hand outs. The combination of economic stagnation caused by the war and the cost of arming and rebuilding Ukraine will mean membership becomes increasingly expensive making decisions to leave far easier for any populist led countries.

Looks like the West is looking to tie Trumps hands by channeling weapons supply through NATO. Russia knows that this fight is far from over and is imo going to prioritize rebuilding munitions reserves and strengthening defenses. For this reason, while small gains of the odd 100 square miles might occur, I don't see the front moving much in the next 12 months. Ukraine unfortunately will remain in a state of war for the foreseeable future, with it's men obligated to serve on the front line so that western soldiers don't have to. As for FXPO, it's legal nuisances will eventually be resolved since the company itself is not the target of these. It will continue to operate in a difficult environment, but it's assets will remain intact and operations will continue. Frankly I see the current dip as someone trying to capitalize on fear of a Russian surge, but that isn't going to happen, and so I am confident on a strong share price improvement in the nearish future.

Https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Ukraine

No doubt there is an escalation in the exchange of taking out strategic assets going on. Putin is furious that refineries are being taken out, and is replying with strikes on Ukraine's electricity infrastructure. Off course Putin sees the west's hand in all off this, especially places like Britain who can't ship enough drones to Ukraine. The balancing act of giving Ukraine just enough not to win the war is a delicate one, give to little, and Ukraine is lost, give to much and you wake up to a nuclear missile strike in one of your provincial cities. It's the main reason Germany and the USA have been backtracking recently.

@alex1978uk

Ukraine may not like a ceasefire on Russian terms, but it may have no option, the demographic situation is desperate https://youtu.be/MLcZ8OKI-r4

Https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/05/ukraine-presses-eu-to-allow-extradition-of-war-criminals-wagner-group

On the basis that the case against him is very clearly having a financially detrimental effect on UK shareholders, and because of his substantial ownership of a UK listed company, can someone please tell me why court proceedings are not happening in the UK?

Https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-war-russia-zelensky-klitschko-b2458171.html

I suspect a fair number of cfd muppets got fleeced today.

Https://www.forbes.com/sites/melikkaylan/2024/02/05/for-ukraine-another-hidden-danger-looms/