RE: Good summary21 Feb 2019 23:44
PR:
David has confirmed several times that the CPR will be released in the beginning of March. A figure of 300m barrels for the R1, R2, R3 New zone 1,2,3 and Mengo is expected.
David has also heavily suggested that the Djeno field is similar if not the same as nearby license areas, which contain in-excess of 1 billion barrels of oil. This will obviously only go into a CPR when 104 is drilled.
Funding:
Is has been confirmed multiple times that funding is not going to take place unless it’s for 104 and or a new oil field. Any new oil field will be a payment of shares imo and David would be foolish to do this until the share price is much higher. It has been confirmed that 104 will not be planned until production is underway. Given all this funding will NOT happen until May at the earliest. A loan against production would be first way of doing this anyway.
104:
A possible rig has been identified (from the states) and a late summer timeframe has been floated. This will target the Djeno sands for production and Vanji for exploration. Production target will be 5000bopd.
Product:
David has confirmed that oil samples have been taken and the API is 39-41, light crude. Price has been confirmed as Brent, with an $18 cost per barrel.
David has confirmed that they have already spoken to the major offshore Djeno terminal about Djeno production later in the year, they have confirmed that Djeno Heavier oil is required and they would like to take whatever AAOG can produce.
Revenue:
SNPC have paid $663,000 to AAOG, after electing to pay rather than give away ownership. This is good news. A short repayment plan had been entered into.
We know that the expected production is 1500 bopd we know the price and the profit.
1500*(brent-cost) * 30 = cashflow profit pcm
1500*(67-18)*30 = $2,205,000m pcm
Given roughly 55% of this is AAOG, we get a figure of roughly $1.2m.
This is perfectly in line with David’s insistence that the company will make pro rata, $1m a month cashflow.
To add to this we have an agreement for SNPC owings to be paid out of revenue, even if we have no extra money from them as per the repayment plan that gives AAOG $2.2m a month, possible $2.7m a month if SNPC make a $500k payment a month as per the repayment plan.
So where does that leave us?
February License renewal to 2040 by SNPC, now to happen as financial terms have been agreed.
March 300m CPR
April Flow test and production start.
May Money flowing in.
April – July $9-10m flowing in, money partially used to pay for topside enhancements for Djeno production.
August 104 Drill?
By end of 2019 – Djeno 5000bopd to add to 1500bopd, $13m a month pro rata to AAOG $7m giving $84m a year profit…MCAP $500m plus as the Djeno field and further holes will be in the works.
Obviously one step at a time, but now we know the answers to many questions, investors can at last start to put real projections together.
Frustrating that David