Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Last amati declared position was 2.24m shares (3.1%) - sitting in their UK small companies fund which is down 14% in 2022 - so expect an RNS. Interesting timing with Q3 results tomorrow. SB
Good point hectordog - although it is possible that there are a number of parties that sit beneath the 'position' - in which case individually they not would trigger a declaration above 3%. Last previous disclosed short position was closed out in 2019 - so perhaps this is a long position with spreadbet acting as the broker? Question is - what has prompted a 14m CFD share trade - normal business aside? SB
Given the positive news at the time of the AGM on current trading, cash in back, overhead reduction - it will be interesting to see if Spreadex have taken a long or short position here - 14m shares declared under a CFD. SB
Just caught up with the renx presentation yesterday - led by James M who came across very well and is clearly focused on communicating all the positive aspects of progress to date. He pretty much makes the case that the company's achievements in its 3 years since being spun out of EKF are market leading - and in some ways ahead of progress given the number of insured lives (10m) which are already covered under insurance reimbursement. Obviously would not commit to the FDA approval timeline - but did reiterate that 2022 was a big year for milestones - so there is a confidence that the second half of the year will produce some major announcements - including the late stage negotiations with pharma partners as noted by andypa. Good to see short positions on the decline; and hopefully this will aid the stock recovery. Lots to look forward to. SB
Thanks for posting andypa - lots of reasons to look forward rather than back over the last six months. Looks like a bit of share interest in the US and UK - would be nice to see a reversal at least in part of the recent hammering experienced here! Still not clear on the large trades which went through about 10 days ago and whether they were linked to short interests. SB
Whilst it is always useful to hear about clinical progress, studies, presentations etc - recent evidence suggests we need to see progress in revenue (testing volume) and of course the FDA approval/strategic partnerships (together with ramping up recently introduced health systems) to see any material impact on share price. Q1 testing volume was c.$0.45m (35 tests a week); Q2 testing volume was c.$0.7m (55 tests a week). Q3 gets announced next Tuesday - would be great to see us moving into the 100+ tests a week territory - and even better if the company can show testing moving beyond Sinai. Appreciate that doesn't appear stellar, but its still important to show quarterly growth which we can use as an indicator in the absence of company guidance.. SB
That's now five transactions of 100K shares or more in the last 12 hours each at £1.47 trade price. 3.5% (2.62m) of the total shares in issue. Not far off our CEO's total holding. Wonder who's in/out. SB
And there's more ShearC. Something defo up based on todays trading. Nasdaq still bobbling around $4 on minor volumes so its doesn't appear cataclysmic ! SB
Question is - is that Millennium et al closing their shorts.....?! SB
That all adds up ShearC - thanks - so the second 13G filing picked up their increased holding. 204k options (likely at the £1.21 issue price) would have been worth £1.8m in November 2021 (£9 a share). Not quite so much today.....SB
I'm not 100% clear what's going on here andypa. After the recent fundraising Mount Sinai increased their holding from 10.75m to 11.85m shares. This filing submitted on 27th May appears to indicate Sinai have a total holding of 10.95m; and cross references its % holding based on the number of shares as at Sept 2021 (72m). So that is less than their holding post equity raise. A schedule 13G short form is issued when a party increases it holding by 5% or more. I'm not clear as to why the form 13 was issued and why the share holdings do not appear to line up. Perhaps the market perception that Sinai increased by 9m shares led to the 20% nasdaq price increase on Friday? No idea where they would have found 9m shares either. SB
In the last six years, SRC have purchased 8 major businesses with a combined value in excess of £550m; and a number of smaller operations below the radar. Our current market value is just over £400m for a business with a c.£450m+ turnover and a c.18% EBITDA - £80m (based on 2021 performance and Q1 updates). That puts us on a valuation on 5 x EBITDA.(although we do have reasonable debt - £164m prior to Johnston acquisition - but before H1 positive cash flow - so likely to be of similar scale). Depressingly familiar story being played out here. SB
Good day for AGL holders andypa - thanks for the update. Lord knows we could do with some good news here. SB
Further trouble brewing - overall short positions against the stock increasing on nasdaq. I hope I am wrong but you do wonder if there is data circulating on how the company fared in Q3 and Q4 - and its not good news. That said - we have no idea what to expect anyway which is one of the root causes of the current implosion. SB
All good points unhooked - and from andypa and ShearC following FOTP's darkest hour post with its uncanny timing! I take some solace from the director participation in the equity raise; but like all here the lack of communication and guidance on key measurable business metrics is increasingly frustrating in the face of extremely negative market sentiment. SB
I would agree to some extent unhooked - but unless we start to generate decent revenue we are likely to be spending $10m every quarter - and the $40m we entered the year with the subsequent $30m raise will have taken a big hit already in Q3 and Q4 unless we can increase testing volumes. The company referenced the cash as providing 'a sufficient cash runway for at least 24 months from March 2022' - so lets assume we had $60m at March 2022 - this will burn very quickly unless the company increases tests or cuts it costs. Referring to a 'cash runway' itself is likely to have spooked investors - implying the company has no idea on when it expects to move into profitable operations and sowing the seeds for further fund raising. Q3 and Q4 testing run rates need to show increasing adoption or we remain a business with a great product that no one apart from our largest investor wants to pay for despite the financial case to support its use. SB
The trading pattern here is ominous. The yoyo effect of a dual listing on two indices both of which are taking daily hammerings is far from ideal; and we all know the carnage in the bio tech sector which is wrecking profitable companies let alone those at the start of their growth. There are some backstops - the rights issue price of £1.21 back in 2019; and as a last resort the cash value of the business which is likely to be c.$50m end of full year 2022 - although that implies there could be significant downside from here if the tide does not turn. We have heard from Randy Barron with his positive view of the potential here; Christopher Mills has committed more equity as have Mount Sinai and our directors; James M has been offering informal investor meetings in the US to calm nerves; and yet we are in total freefall with short positions against the stock driving lower every day. We are due a trading update for Q3 in the next three weeks - and at that point the company will also know how many tests it has sold in Q4. We still have no word on FDA, further partner deals or a strategic relationship - although these are not going to address the revenue shortfall and market perception that management cannot commercialise the business despite claims to the opposite. In the meantime we are close to joining the 90% club - a retraction where the business is worth 10% of what is was less than 12 months ago. Horrendous for all investors here. SB
Hi unhooked - I think it should probably just be viewed as a dividend - only in shares rather than cash. It is part of EKF's ongoing plan to distribute value to shareholders - and if you think about it why should EKF shareholders pay for investments in another company (albeit a spin off) without any benefit? And yes looks like quite a few here are on Mills coat tails on several investments - frankly its been a horrendous six months and I'm feeling pretty sea sick to continue the analogy!! ATB - I don't see any major downside here, there and elsewhere given recent declines - but what do I know based on current evidence! SB
Suspect you may be correct with the shorts Hawker - ADR positions clearly still open on Nasdaq - and possibly the 1m share trading in mid April was Millennium moving its position. Armistice were on the edges of declaration anyway. The disappointing conclusion is that they see further downside here - sector and company specific - at least one of those issues is in our hands and requires our expensively assembled commercial/sales/marketing team to manage the mobilisation of our partnership relationships and increase testing volumes!! SB
Cheers vig - I see we have other common interests! Wonder if we will get an AGM trading update in the morning - hopefully nice and positive with a clear focus on profitable, organic growth - C. Mills has intimated as much already. SB