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Nothing yet vig - although historically there is no real timing pattern for trading updates so not actually sure when we might hear from the company - other than given the recent price action here you would think a market update would be in order to reassure investors and such I think we can expect to hear in next 2/3 weeks. In addition to financial performance - I do think there is a broader communication required here on the buy to build strategy in the current market taking into consideration cost of funding (capital and equity) together with macro economic outlook. If we are generating significant free cash flow - now might be the time for a share buyback (assuming still no dividend policy) ......drives eps which is where a slug of options crystalize for max and co in 2024 from memory. There was the recent introduction of Polar Capital as a major shareholder with 5% - so someone sees decent value here. ATB - SB
FOTP - I think the UK and US shares are pretty much aligned - there is always a little bit around the margins and exchange rates to be factored - plus £ v $ has been taking a battering. Price in US is c. $2.50 - about £2.10 - divide by two as a single US ADS share is the equivalent of two UK shares - and you are at £1.05. The current price spread is simply ridiculous......! SB
No problem Chelsea. I think we we will get an update next week. We already know they have added to their cash pile - now sitting on £21m - and although sales will clearly decline post covid we should see a final benefit in H1 2022 revenue with H2 2022 and beyond continuing to benefit from core business growth, ADL and the fermentation capacity investment. If the £16m EBITDA is accurate; and we get anywhere near £25m in two years - the present valuation is trading at an increasingly large discount. It is very unlikely this will continue when the markets turn - the issue is when that occurs! SB
First time I have seen an EBITDA forecast for 2022 performance - from Oryx " The company's management team continued to deliver on the stated strategy of taking cost out of the business while driving sales through its international distributor-led model. The company is now profitable for the first time and expects to generate at least £4.1 million of EBITDA in 2022, a remarkable achievement given the group had lost £25 million of EBITDA as recently as 2019. The balance sheet is robust with circa £13.5 million net cash and management have expressed confidence in Circassia's ability to outperform market expectations. "
If the business can continue to grow its revenue through it low overhead sales model this bodes well for the future. SB
From OIG annual report:
"The company had a strong performance during the year, with sales growing to £83 million from £65 million and Adjusted EBITDA of £26.5 million. Sales will normalize in 2022 as the uplift from pandemic related sales declines materially. The core business continues to perform well, with £16 million of EBITDA anticipated in 2022 as global healthcare systems come back online. The company has deployed capital with the acquisition of ADL Health, a United States ("US") Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments certified laboratory as well as a new strategic partnership with Yourgene Plc to broaden the product offering. The business is well capitalized and has net liquidity of circa £17 million. "
" The outperformance in 2021 was driven by investor sentiment around its Covid-19 related products, but the soaring share price has now been brought back down to earth as the pandemic eases. The core business continues to deliver, with £16 million of Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortisation ("EBITDA") anticipated this year, growing to £25 million by the end of 2024. The current valuation is low for a high-quality diagnostics business and with time, we hope the market will recognize this."
SB
Given the ongoing turbulence here I would not be surprised if they were sells - fund managers trading positions wrecked all over the place. At 50p you have to think the directors would have a nibble at this price. Next weeks update will certainly make for interesting reading......given some doom being issued by housebuilders which seems to fly in the face of actual performance. SB
For the last few daily trading sessions the price has been repeatedly marked down in the last 30 mins. Another body blow to see trades under 50p. Now trading at 6.5 times 2021 EBITDA - and likely 4 times 2022 EBITDA. I mean seriously......SB
Looks like Spreadex (or their clients) exited 1/3 of their position on Friday 1st - explains the 4.375m buy/sell - possibly helped by the announcement we have $10m in cash due from Beyond Air over next 2 years with a potential further $6m in royalties. Update expected next week - should be over £15m revenue in first half; c.£14m+ cash in bank; money flowing from beyond air; and hopefully a positive look ahead for the second half of the year. SB
Yes unhooked - Renx and Sinai are joined at the hip both in terms of business technology and case study evidence together with being the two largest shareholders - who both participated in the recent fundraise. I reviewed the vox market update as well - my investment here (and ekf and cir) was influenced by C Mills - and all three have had a spectacular fall from grace over the last 9 months. Renx gives me most cause for concern - and agreed the communication on cash burn was inconsistent. Mills would clearly have been aware of what was going to be announced as part of the Q3 trading update - no way the company announces it has lodged a $300m potential share sale in $50m chunks on Nasdaq without Chairman approval. Probably explains why he didn't want to talk about Renx on the call - and had to default to the company line at that point in time. The Q3 update also includes the following " We expect to incur additional losses in the near future, and we expect our expenses to increase in connection with our ongoing activities". This seems rather a bold statement for a company to make which has c. $45m in the bank moving into its 2023 fiscal year with a $15m per quarter spend - and as noted earlier why raise only $30m when that lasts six months - unless there is a strong belief that FDA/Partnership deals will be achieved in next few months and future fund raising will be less dilutive to shareholders than at present given 30% of the business is owned by Sinai, Mills and MCullough. SB
unhooked - this is the way I see it - note this is all imo so take it as investor research rather than gospel. As we know Renx was spun out of ekf - and it was ekf who had the links with Sinai. Renx was a start up Artificial Intelligence business - which subsequently dropped the AI reference as there was a perception this was a negative attribute. Renx - from its roots in ekf - had developed the KidneyIntel text - over which is presumably has a patent. However - this is essentially a machine learning algorithm which requires access to a clinical biomarker database in order to predict individual patient likely health outcomes - clearly focused on CKD and DKD. As I understand - the database is owned by Sinai and has been licenced to Renx via Sinai's commercial innovation business which brings clinical research and product development into the commercial world. Sinai receive both licence fees for access to this database, and fees related to the ongoing clinical testing programmes which are designed to prove the test is capable of predicting patient needs and ultimately producing significant savings from early diagnosis and treatment. So Renx needs Sinai as it stands hence my reference to the IP it holds being important to the business - and it also provides income to Sinai. Whether this is required once all the clinical surveys validate the technology I cannot say. Sorry if this is going over old ground - or is this is all well understood. Lets hope for a better week. SB
We should expect a trading update from SRC possibly as early as next week but more likely the week after. Its been quite a 12 months since Nordalk last year - and will be interesting to hear if there is any change of direction from 'buy and build' into 'consolidate and cash' from the team. Inflation and Ukraine have driven investors away - but will be good to get a strong H1 2022 under the belt and demonstrate the resilience of the business to cope with market conditions through its six core trading platforms. SB
Difficult to see where we go from here. Cash burn is terrifying for current operations - they must have known this in March - why raise $30m when it only covered an additional 6 months current spend rate - or was that all that could be raised - in which case that's even worse. RNS was full of red flags - limited growth, need to secure capital, shareholder dilution, excessive costs, a sales force which doesn't appear to be selling anything, partnerships which cost us money, failure to deliver previous targets (300 tests per week, 10,000 in 2022 etc), 20 healthcare systems with only one selling tests, partnerships which don't deliver anything (so why think new deals will create any sales when current ones don't), not one mention of FDA and the worst of all an increasing sense that our management are oblivious to the basic fundamentals of how to navigate the company into a better position other than raising/spending more cash and hope for the best. Mills must be fuming with this performance - two days after he told the market the company had a 24 month cash buffer. Apologies for the downbeat post but imo we now have a very limited window to get on top of this - or the outcome is end of the line for the business and Sinai takes back its IP. SB
Q3 makes for grim reading. I really thought we would have seen some momentum in sales - but apparently not. Q4 not looking any better - even reference to a decline. $2.9m prediction for full year. Costs were meant to decrease in Q3 but have gone in opposite direction. Reference to having enough cash for 12 months - whatever happened to the 2 year look ahead. No other system apart from Sinai contributing sales - and the research costs we pay for that benefit far outweigh the income. Also - reference to future fund raising, debt, ADR's which will dilute existing shareholders. Trying to see some positives but struggling. SB
Hi ShearC. Have to agree it’s unusual to have held through the last 9 months of slide and sell when there doesn’t seem much further downside….but as you noted - a profit is a profit and not many can say that in this sector at present. Q3 results will be very interesting - issued on the same day that our fiscal year ends - so they may have been timed to allow a further trading update. SB
Looks like Randy B from Pinnacle was in London a couple of weeks ago - there is an interview he gave Edison now available on youtube dated 21st June 2022 . He remains positive on RENX and confirms pinnacle were involved in recent $30m fundraise - which was at $7.25 a share. Interestingly he also mentions having met EKF during his visit - presumably through the Christopher Mills network - and appeared to like what he heard - so possibly looking at an investment there also. We must be due the Q3 results any time now - historically there has been a prior RNS notification. SB
I was trying to convince myself that my investment here wasn't a complete dud - and take some comfort that we have some major II's on board - although Blackrock's CFD position looks like it is turning into a very good call. £350m wiped off market cap in 9 months; c. £200m in last three months alone. Will be very interesting to see H1 EBITDA and earnings - looking for £40m+ and EPS of about 3p - which bear no correlation whatsoever to the current price. As you say italian - dig in for the medium/long term. SB
Italian - there's been quite a bit of coming and going in major holders as you might expect in the current dash for cash and those who see longer term value here - polar, chelverton and blackrock buying - quilter, M+G selling. 64% of shares held by investors with 3% or more - and quite a few sitting below the declared interest - so likely c.75% of shares in the hands of 20 institutions/funds. 12 month lock for Retting about to expire - they have 50m at 85p - hoping they don't need to cash in any time soon. SB
With todays latest decline SRC is now valued at less than the acquisition of Nordalk (£402m) just over 12 months ago and just a few pence off a 50% share price decline in 9 months. Breedon in the same boat. Lots of bad news assumptions being priced into company. Perhaps time to slow down acquisitions (although fortune does favour....) and start to pay down debt with earnings - we have some chunky loan repayments about to start. SB
EKF just pumped another £2.5m into VRCI - so they now own 5.77% of business - which they have stated will be passed to ekf shareholders as a dividend in specie. And from what I read the VRCI update is good news. Total madness. SB
Can't imagine a more bizarre reaction to a company releasing a positive update about its current cash position. Which raises the question - what exactly is going on here to create the rush to exit? SB