Member Info for SillyButtons

JTS,
Re: " Half of the production is hedged"
This statement is a bit simplified and slightly misleading to be fair.. the % of production hedged will depend on:
(a) actual Production (which will depend on planned sidetrack, other presently unplanned sidetracks & well pressure decrease over time
(b) the monthly amount hedged which changes every quarter (1.25m therms/month to 1.75m therms/ month)

GL states half based on averages over life time of hedge and assumed production rates..
As per the RNS last week, you could say 67.5% of volume is hedge based on 5m therm production.. but that % will obviously be higher as based on production from 1st of July which was never intended and we are not producing yet..

Surely the desiccant is for removing moisture from the gas?

SL,
I know you said your leaving but in case you are still reading the board and for the record..
re: "SB - you’re more sophisticated and less blatant than that the rest of the boiler room boys/girls I’ll give you that. But have an agenda all the same."

I would not consider myself sophisticated (but thank you) and you are wrong about me being part of some boiler room conspiracy to influence the sp.. that's just nonsense.. and as for an agenda, I wouldn't consider myself as having one.. As I have stated before, my position is I am hoping to get out with out a loss and my B/E is just below 2, i am frustrated by delays and lack slow progress and annoyed with the PR spin that is ultimately undermining credibility due to delays.. as I said before I think it is easier have patience when in the black rather than red..

Depending on how things go I may hold for the side track.. I think that is the next decision point, whether to wait for the results or sell into some SP increase on expectation, if one happens..

Even though you didn't ask and just made a untrue statement about me instead, My query to Gavin M was because he posted the same Shell take over statement back in April, & May and nothing has come it.. I think it is just a blatant ramp and of no benefit to anyone.. I know from our previous discussions, you prefer to only look at the bright side and not discuss any negatives.. which is your way to do it.. I prefer to look at (& try discuss here if possible) both the potential upside and downside, that is my way..

I'm here to see how others are thinking, get different points of view and learn a bit.. don't want a echo chamber and don't have to agree or take contributions on board. GavinM post re shell did none of those things, just a ramp like Adrian does..

Compare it to your post last week for example, where you stated a profit of £1m a month. I asked you how you came to that figure and you explained your logic.. you had 3 avg for gas for the 12 months.. I don't have to agree with it, and could think that is high or low and adjust to come to my own figure based on my opinion but your contribution was useful.. GavinM's wasn't, and neither are the insults, the propaganda war against the imaginary environmentalist on the board, bobrads nothing today posts, or 10/20/30p SP predictions with no logic presented

GavinM,

Welcome Back.. What ever happen with that Shell bid you were promising back in April or is that still on the cards?

Asher,
I live in the real world and that is why I know credibility is very important
and I'm glad your happy.. as they say ignorance is bliss and all that
and I do know projects don't always complete on time & I do know that the current supply issues have caused a challenge.. ..
As I have said be before there is no credible reason for repeatedly pushing out the completion like they have.
As im sure you are aware, since January 2022 we have been told or rather its has been implied with the usual non committal verbs, we will have first gas on: end of q1, around the end of April, 1st June,, mid to late June, now first week to middle of July .
And just to be clear, its not the delays that are the issue (I am sure there are reasonable reasons for some of them), it GLs repeated false completion dates that are the issue and his attention grabing headline statements that are unrealistic (£7m revenue June) & unfulfilled (unhedged production in June).
no need to be voluntarily undermining the little credibility left and It is excusable to be claiming to be 6 weeks from completion and still be incomplete 12 Weeks later.. he has either no idea what is going on, his project team are treating him like a mushroom or he is just stringing shareholders along..
Which ever you want to chose it is indefensible and unjustifiable ..

so I will stand over my statement that it would be foolish to take any notice of a 'hint' he makes when you cant take what he actually tells you at face value.

"George hinted at something exciting about Lidsey, with a throwaway remark in a previous interview.
Something like doubling of the CPR."

GL said in the interview we could have £7m revenue for June
GL said all Junes production would be unhedged

Both completely true statements and neither happened..

I wont be giving any credence to any 'hint' he makes when you cant rely on what he says

". ignoring the negatives doesn't make them go away or any less relevant.."

I should have added that banging on ad nauseum wont fix them either

Silverlight,
I don't understand what you mean by
"and in the mean time SB .... . ''Methanol tanks being prepared for first gas delivery since 2017" "
I didn't mention that??

but you have demonstrated by point with the rest of your post..
you don't see the current SP and delays etc as an issue, which is your position and you are entitled to, which is a reasonable position to take given you got in low/right time and are sitting on a profit. (and good for you by the way)
but it doesn't entitle you to dismiss those who dont see it that way, who are sitting on a loss, holding hope of getting out with out a loss and are frustrated with low SP, delays and the fact they cannot rely on the credibility of company communications on which influence their decisions making.. those are valid concerns, reasons to be frustrated, in my opinion,.

There are some on this board who, if GL released an RNS saying he was swapping all the assets for a handful of "magic" beans, would tell you it was a great deal.. ignoring the negatives doesn't make them go away or any less relevant..

DyamFoolMan,

to be fair, it is hard to justify yesterdays update as great news..
Positives:
>they finished nitrogen testing and passed
>starting into commissioning with gas..
>are expecting higher flow of 1.65/therms a month
> expecting to produce 5 million therms in q3
> no issues reported and progress continues
> SP went up a little on a spike
Negatives:
> another 2 week delay to completion
>another missed deadline
>another RNS with no explanation as to why the deadline is missed
>another 2 weeks lost revenue
> SP now back down to where it was prior to update
>Still no RNS re the second tranche of the placing
> another twisted truth as the 5 million therms in q3 is based on 1st July production, even though 3 lines above that in the RNS, they stated 7th July as earliest target date for sales.. why not just state approx.4.6 million therms from 7th?

The cheerleader parade can argue that another 2 weeks doesn't matter, which is fine if it doesn't matter to them but that does not mean it doesn't matter to others.
If the cheerleader parade are happy to accept the delays & missed deadlines, good for them,.. it doesn't mean others aren't entitled to be frustrated and ****ed off by those delays.
Similarly for the lost revenue, (£7 million in June anyone??),
similarly for the SP, as some here are under water and some here already doubled their investment.,

What annoys me most is the BOD's absolute refusal to drop the PR spin and build some creditability.. and I know the primary way to get that done will be get SFB up and running, but it certainly would be no harm, possibly even beneficial, if they adopted a more clear, concise and reliable approach to communications, rather than Q1 gas and 5m therms for q3 when it will be now q3 for gas and they only expect a maximum of 4.6m therms for q3 because don't envisage getting sales until the 7th at the earliest

Hits
I know the Hedge was for field production..
It is just insane that a very vocal posters to the board, who regularly likes to discredit anyone who is not inanely positive as greeny etc, didn't know the hedge was for the field production.

I did notice that HITS but was more interested to see the OPEX.. I still don't know what that will be..

Thanks for the reply silverlight. appreciate the courtesy

Silverlight,

how did you come to the figure of 1m a month profit?

Hamsters 18,
if I am reading g you post correctly, you are asserting the hedge was only for angus 51% share and SEL's 49% share was unhedged. is that correct?

Well Whistler, that certainly could be inferred, but I wouldn't like to confirm! :-D

BV,
you must be thinking of someone else.. I didn't sell out yet...still hoping this goes over 2 and I can get out with no losses other than my sanity! :-)

Tygra,
I also think they string us along. which make me skeptical of their statements and wonder what we are not being told.

SV,
as regards the acquisition, i think the SP dropped due to the manner in which is was done, taking on increase liabilities , more delays and shareholders generally don't like dilution.

Silverlight,
I acknowledge Covid and supply chain issues have hindered this hugely.. hence why I ignored the initial projection of 2020 Completion and budget of £2.5m to construct..
bad planning is angs fault as they decided to act as MC for the works and obviously didn't have competence to take it on.
Contractor availability is hard to justify as they have been appointed a while ago for off site fabrication.. any delay in appointment is management issue with competency.
material/ parts supply issues are outside of their control
But my point is they should know this.. I don't see how they could justify stating 6 weeks to completion in April and be incomplete almost 10 weeks later.. that's an over run of an almost 70% on their 6 week programme.. it has to be either complete incompetence or stringing shareholders along..

If you look on AAOG board, there is some light reading from posters re Paul Forrest,SEL, SFB and Angus..
I wasn't aware of it and found it interesting so I said I would share in case anyone else wants to look..

Also a very good example of what this board could be if it was used for discussion and debate rather than insulting .

Silverlight,
That is true to a point, I know construction always has delays and the larger & more complex the project the more delays.. but the closer to completion the more accurate the estimate should become..
they were still trying imply gas in Q1 on 10 January, 6 weeks week out from supposed completion..
In April they told us the 1st of June.. again approx. 6 weeks week out from supposed completion ..
it is now almost 12 weeks past Q1 estimate and almost a 4 weeks past 1st June estimate and they still have not got first gas..
I cannot see how anyone could deduce that they either haven't got a clue or were just stringing shareholders along but I would be interested to here a justification for an alternative view