Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I speak to a lot of people who are statisticians and work with trials at university level (i'm an academic) I asked a few about Synairgen and they all do agree that its strange that they haven't been able to provide the data at this point. I have no worries about efficacy- lots of signs that SNG know that's good and all the evidence, P2, Activ, would point in that direction. However, it IS strange that reporting on such a small trial is taking so long especially with a big player doing it for them. Does anyone in the know or who understands these things understand what else might hold up the trial data? I'm holding, but a little bit concerned now.
Pie in the sky people, please don't bite my head off. I've held quite a bit of this share for 2 years and still believe in it. However, some clarity at this point would really help.
Inclined to agree. Although I think £3 is a little bit pessimistic for results day, I think the share price should comfortably double. The value of the patent alone has to push succesful results to a 1billion valuation. £10 still seems very feasible.
As to the other stuff, yes, It's a great shame, because the upper-end estimates £20, £50, were realistic on a different timescale. but unfortunately SNG has stretched this out for so long that, regardless of what a lot of people want to believe here, some of the momentum is slipping from us. Still a great buy IMO, but not likely to make us the millionaires that we once reasonably hoped it would.
Definitionally, if this really means it could be April, Why did they say they could have got results out by H2 last year if they had managed to finish their trials in October? This assumed a maximum two month turnaround. Logically, these two things are mutually exclusive, so at some level, they haven't understood their own timescales. I'm in for the Long Haul but something doesn't make sense.
The Very High Estimates are possible. I read today that the drug the US has spent most on has been Remdesivir- which is relatively useless. Anything close to what our P2 results suggested and you'd have the main game in town. Lots of variables though, could be picked up by Pharma at 6 pounds or so. I think good results will make a lot of people sell at the £5 mark (not me). The sky remains the limit. I'd say at least £4-5 on good results. Above that is down to many factors outside our control.
If its even remotely possible that Early 2022 means March or April, then Synairgen never had any idea of how long releasing results would take, as they said that an October result would mean end of year p3 readout. That simply doesn't align with Nov 10 turning into a March readout. Somewhere along the line, not for the first time, Sng have been inaccurate about how long it takes them to do things. Given this, we should request and update if things are not forthcoming before Marhc.
I think I said the same thing on the 17th- that the timing matters here. Rapid EUA IS essential to the higher share price estimates here- otherwise a takeover based on the sheer value of our patent (which is very high indeed), might be our best bet.
Omicron still causes Pneumonia as the primary cause of death, so Omicron will still be efficacious against it. There are 600 people on ventilators in the UK right now. Secondly, the results of interferon beta and Omicron ARE very promising in in vitro. Secondly, the lung nebulisation methods main advantage is the concentrations it can get which are impossible for subcataenous infections, so the two are incomprable. Will it be as effective. Maybe not, but still quite possibly more than anything else we've got for in hospital.
However, a quick EUA from the FDA will at least take into account the situation on the ground. IF the Omicron wave has really started to subside, which it could, they may well decide to be more rigorous and slower with approvals generally- not just SNG.
I know it hurts to hear it for all of us but the speed of those results matters for the upside of this share and matters considerably. Godspeed RM!
Phase 3 results that are positive push sng into at least the billion pound territory, even just in terms of the value of the patent, given what appears to be wider connotations of use. So if it goes well we all make very decent money.
What is unfortunately true as others have pointed out is the level of that upside *is* reducing the longer RM and co take to get those results out, as immunity improves- particularly if an Omicron vaccine beats us to approval. So I agree with those advocating for patience, but the longer this takes- the less likely those 'stratospheric' upsides of £15+ become and that is an unfortunate reality we have to deal with.
Given they are in possession of the unblinded results, there is almost zero chance that, given they don't have an alternative source of cashflow, that they would be advertising high paying high powered positions in the US. It might only be woth £7. It might be worth £10. But the sky really is the limit here, especially if it works for all respiratory viruses. Finally, I think we can start to dream. And dream big.
RM said that had the trial recruited last patient in October, he would have been able to provide results by the End of 2021. Given that they did so in early/Mid November, it stands to reason that the data would arrive in Jan according to the same timescale.
Therefore the March derampers are talking absolute nonsense.
Personally I think it will return to 175-ish when they RNS that the final patient has been dosed.
I think the real panic and worry- which I myself do share is with the continual shifting of goalposts. As a result of this, our assumption we'd at least have this winter to sell the product has been harmed. This means our overall profit potential and the upside of the share has been harmed. If they at least show us the trial has been finished i think there will be a lot of sighs of relief and a decent rise.
Still confident it works, but moving goalposts always stresses investors. If they don't finish in November, we might have a major problem.
Depends on *how good* the results are as well as if there is efficacy at all. If it has a huge impact on mortality then i think the sky's the limit. If it just does ' a bit' ( say 30% reduction) then I think £5-6 is realistic.
I shall rephrase. Given the data that we have, including from two separate cohorts, the changes that SNG001 is not efficacious against severe Covid with breathlessness are vanishingly small. I suppose the trial could fail in other ways.
The Covid trials won't fail. Or rather given the current data the chances of them doing so are absolutely miniscule. The worry is that it is taking so long to do, that perhaps there won't be so much of a market by time efficacy is proved.
The most irritating part of the poor presentation and unrealistic timescales they have previously set out is that, at least for the moment, the drug is by far the most effective against Covid that we've seen. Gonna hold, but this is getting irritating.