While I think this will eventually do very well, we have to be realistic from what we can see from movements. Until the inflationary environment changes and interest rates fall again, Nex is not going anywhere much.
As soon as the overall market conditions change I think it will rocket. But we might have a year, or two, before we see much here.
Every time Nexpress posts results, it gets a bump because its beaten expectations. And then, inevitably, the price drifts endlessly downwards, despite the company outperforming every single time.
I've never seen a share behave like this in my entire investment career......someone could write an article.
National Express recovered from the silly Forecast, and also went up where the ftse 250 went down in general. Not seen this for almost a year. Shows at least a tiny increase in confidence in these shares.
Baby steps. But, positive ones for the first time in ages.
So if Liberum, with exactly the same fundamentals and a worse revenue estimate had this at 155 a short while ago before the positive update, I am unconvinced how they could have been unaware of debt issues National express have which they are now incorporating into a hugely different share price forecast? I am no broker but this makes zero sense to me. The only thing that has occurred since their last update is an update that beat the forecasts they were previously basing their estimates on.
This feels like absolute nonsense and borderline manipulation.
It always falls when the market falls, but never rises when it rises.
I'm not sure I've ever seen a stock peform like this before.
Agree with pokerchips, that Update in June had a monstrously chilling effect. Without that we'd have been fine.
A few months ago my entire portfolio was in the doldrums.... lots of blue chips, ITV, Rolls Royce, Easyjet.
Every single one has recovered except National express, despite not seemingly being any stronger in balance sheet or prospects. Its completely perplexing.
Axe is fundamentally right though. They took money from us (80 million?) at 1.75 to commercialise this product. Now, refusing to take the basic steps needed to try and get us some of that back.
Remember, Synairgen fundraised of private investors to get a lot of what they have. Refusing to engage with the commercial side and talk to investors is not merely incompetent but borderline unethical given what people lost.
Eiger has pure hospitalization/death data that doesn't incorporate the 6 hr thing. So they should be fine.
Would also note that despite the flaws in fluxoamine trial the evidence is no weaker than Molnuvaripir, and certainly much stronger than remdesivir (which probably doesn't work at all).
There is a huge bigpharma bias in the FDA. This is the other thing we are up against and why i'm sceptical about EUA.
If Merck or Pfizer had Synairgens data i would think it would be a coin flip for an EUA right now.
Veru and Eiger are the two most recently. Veru looks a bit dodgy, but the Eiger trial was absolutely huge, 2000 patients and using interferon as well. So the market is more crowded. I still believe in the nebulised formula as having huge potential. But someone has to do something at the AGM. Peer reviewed papers aren't going to save lives or make money. I absolutely believe big pharma would buy this company for a few hundred million- its pocket change, and there is also the potential with COPD and other respiratory infections.Lets hope that Polygon can increase pressure.
I stand by my assertion that Synairgen cannot do this alone. T/O or JV is going to be necessary. If a large trial takes another year commercialisation will be difficult. Huge room for SP rise if done right, but there are a lot of other companies now coming out with statistically significant results.
Further evidence of what we all knew- that the drug has efficacy against Covid. However, the market for covid is not a big or as strong as it was and no way Synairgen has the resources to engage in another timely trial.
This should encourage other companies to take a look at SNG for takeover, particularly with good Activ 2. If there isn't one, I still doubt the ability of Synairgen to commercialise this at all.....
Inhaled interferon as potential. But not under Richard Marsden or Synairgen on its own.
The share price might rise to 35 or so on a good presentation at the conference. It's never going higher than this as long as RM owns it and without a T/O.
No way EUA. , Eiger, which has an interferon drug with huge statistical significance in a massive trial is struggling with an EUA. The FDA are simply nt handing them out that easily anymore. Only option is a takeover at £1 or so.
Manifesto, I hate to the bearer of doom but if Eiger are struggling to get it with a huge phase 3 trial showing extremely impressive efficacy, it suggests that the process has very high standards. Realistically, there is no way that SNG could get it if Eiger don't. It also suggests (which i strongly believe) that the EUA process is slanted in favour of Big Pharma (how Molnuvaripir got EUA) when someone like Eiger is struggling with far superior safety and efficacy I'll never know. Then you have to ask does Marsden etc have the financial muscle, drive, or savviness to push the drug? Add all of this up and I think EUA is a pipe dream at this stage.
I'm in Eiger, they have full phase 2 data and even they are finding it difficult to get an EUA (That's why the share price has recently dipped). Frankly, if they can't do it with a one and done injection thats gone through a huge P3 trial then SNG will hugely struggle. Sell the company and the product to someone who might be able to do something with it. No way EUA for SNG001 if Eiger are struggling with everything they have and similar technology.
It seems clear to me that RM is fundamentally only interested in this now as a 'research company', whatever else he might say. To me, thats what the lack of focus on investors yesterday showed.
With him as CEO nothing will go anywhere.
Can he be removed by Polygon/ II's/ Us? I think this is the essential question. With a new CEO we might get somewhere.
With Richard 'Peer Reviewed Paper' (And I say this as an academic myself who understands these kinds of people), we will never get any of our money back.