Member Info for Shengis_Khan

Be amazed if we see that today. Would say it's likely by next week

Somebody mentioned muting them. I muted them all a few days ago and it's been great.

i have a young family, there is literally nothing i value more than time with them. the us labour market looks upon families with disdain. you work your **** off with **** job security, awful union frameworks, terrible annual leave, dystopian levels of parental leave; and don't even get me started on the outcome if you dare to become unwell.

you can basically exchange the gdp per capita trend in the us with family-time/free-time. dropped 13 places in happiness ranking since 2011: https://data.worldhappiness.report/country/usa.

all the usa has done has become increasingly competent at squeezing the juice out of young people and its incredibly depressing that they are lauded for it. trump might be looking out for americas economic interests but that has surely diverged from the interests of the proletariat and lower-middle class. and yes i am aware of the irony of posting this in an investing forum.

I used to be in the crypto space- absolutely NOT as an investor, rather as a miner. Musk started tweeting about it and the markets would go wild- you could tell he enjoyed the power and influence he had. Over time the market reacted less and less until eventually it just ignored him. The same thing will happen with Trump. Fatigue is already settling in to the market response.

Ok Sun, I challenge you to see how long you can go without trying to bait any of the resident bears- hopefully you can show us that you stick to your word

Sun, it took 2 posts after a moderator cleaned up the board for you to start trying to stir up arguments again. Your first sentence was sufficient to convey your opinion. Please stop.

SP generally falls by the same value as the dividend on the qualifying day (obviously contingent on noise), so they don't really confer much benefit to accumulation investors- but they do to income investors.

If you don't care about the income then you may as well just reinvest the dividend.

No I can see it Crossley, I have filtered our friends so I can read the useful stuff. I'd recommend it if you haven't.

If you have any thoughts on the summary then go for it.

On T9Rats point, I find it amazing how resilient the public are to the economic headwinds of the UK and Europe that bookings arent already down. It seems like the last thing people give up will be holidays- and rightly so in an increasingly depressing society.

Thanks for this- good point about the outflow from S&P.

Ill be honest, when it opened green today I dumped the lot as soon as I saw it starting to come down- its been way too linear recently. I agree on following it up to 360 and then keeping an eye on it. I have almost zero doubts it will go above 400 (and confident about 500) but my investment horizon is shorter than most as i'm trading my way towards paying a good chunk of the mortgage off when we need to re-mortgage from 1.49% in 18 months. Cant afford to have to sit on my hands for a couple of years like what happened in 2021-2024.

Pros:

Great PE

Good recent earnings

They're buying more planes

Bookings appear to be good

Debt has been decreasing

Fuel price is on a downward trend (although they do hedge quite aggressively)

Bit of a FTSE golden-child in early 2025 bringing in more attention

Cons:

Bad recent PR due to the loyalty scheme

Clearly vulnerable to US shenanigans

Pakistan:India conflict? (though didnt really seem to affect SP)

Horrendous long term volatility

Possible geopolitical forcings moving forward:

Orange blob goes mental with tariffs again

Middle east conflict goes regional

Pakistan India escalates

Ukraine Russia escalates

Oil cartel reduces production majorly

Anyone have anything else to add?

I tried to suggest yesterday that the 10% increase seen in the last week was basically big players pricing in the good earnings. It's not the first time I have seen this and it won't be the last. It's why I rarely try to trade around earnings. You'll never win as a 'retail investor' pecking around in the dirt. That's why the whole GME thing a few years ago was so funny. Think over a longer horizon than just today, it's usually way to win as retail. This is a good sign for price action moving forward over the next few weeks-months.

Keep in mind share price is up 10% in a week. Clearly some people know (or have deduced) something prior to earnings. That means don't expect a big jump tomorrow if earnings are good. In some ways that may have already happened this week.

I agree, but there are good and bad values within that expected normal.

Wow. Looking at the way it's trading today there are clearly some big players with differing opinions. I have a feeling the movement will be quite large on earnings. Have zero idea which way it's going to go- but I have freed up quite a large part of my portfolio for the day after earnings if they look ok.

I have been doing this too long to do anything on the whims of crackpots online. It can be an absolute circus. This board isn't even that bad for it. If you ever see a post from a stranger and feel like you should act on it, my advice would be to wait a week.

Please keep in mind that it's very straightforward to implement bots to influence sentiment. Never trust anyone. That might seem hypocritical as from time to time I indicate my own trades or thoughts- I don't really have an answer for that.

SP possibly broke 250 resistance there (at least for those trading in GBP). That could be quite a good sign

Interestingly, IAG is the only ticker I am now investing in (slowly, via cost averaging) whilst holding everything else in cash (short-term MMF) .

I thought pretty hard about it, and considered any one of:

Short NVIDIA

Short S&P500

Long Physical Gold

Long Berkshire Hathaway

Long US debt companies like PRA Group

Long IAG

I'm not really that convinced about any of the above, there's just too much volatility. However, I think IAG is the best bet for now to make a return within a two year horizon. Perhaps paradoxically, the IAG SP (pre-covid) always seems to perform somewhat poorly in early summer then picks up for the following 6 months. I think the shares are on sale at the moment. Of course, taking advice from strangers on the internet is always risky.

Are you saying that traders should just try an inverse-Sundezena in order to make bank?

if you think a company has good fundamentals but the sp is a **** show because of external forces then that is exactly the right time to cost-average into it.

i am very grateful to have sold a little over 90% of my stack between 340-360 but even if i hadn't i don't think i would be selling now. if you think it's worth more than 270 then just leave it alone. heathrow are playing silly buggers because they got caught out. the usas economic contamination is unlikely to spread to europe because europe is now the only decent economy to invest in. russia and ukraine are clearly both running out of steam. gaza will remain a disaster but it can't really get any worse.

if you need immediate liquidity in an airline stock but you aren't prepared to be extremely vigilant about it then you really need to have a think about your investing strategy.

too long didn't read - if you're bag holding right now then just stop looking at the share price for a bit

Nobody can say that for sure. This the safest thing to do at the moment is reduce large holdings and cost-average back in over time