Member Info for shbgetreal

I opened my FRP position July 2025 at 120, back when it was very good value.

Two sets of results + two trading updates later, both very positive, and I can't believe I am able to mop up more at c.110. Now my biggest position by some distance.

The UK market is broken, and while for the bigger picture this isn't good, for my (and I suppose, our) purposes long may it continue.

How will 180 or 150 fly if 230 didn't even make it to the formal stage?

Who out of the institutions will accept that and what would they rationale be?

Is the property not valued at £1.3b-1.5bn (or even £1.6bn as someone corrected me yesterday)?

Is there not a going concern generating £120m operating profit?

Property valued at £1.3-1.5bn

Operating profit £122.6m on £1,579.8m revenue

Current liabilities £332.4m

Market cap £609.78m

Anyone who can do basic arithmetic (or spell advice) will not be selling at these prices.

Visiting us from Monday morning, what are you Marty McFly?

True you did not explicitly state 'the other shareholders were not interested in a strategic review', but surely you can see that beginning a paragraph 'It seems that the source that they are sellers is Harwood on a podcast...' and finishing with '...Harwood has it's own agenda' does basically imply that.

My question re: you having exclusive info is exactly that; the only info that any of us have is publicly available, and anything stated beyond this is either speculation, baseless opinion or disingenuous.

With so much misinformation (i.e. total shyte) being posted on this share chat - as is usually the case in these situations, random commenters with no relation to the company swarming in with their crap, for whatever reason - it makes sense to clarify the content of posts from the seemingly sensible.

If no interest, why do you apparently live here? Lurking on share chat boards in which you apparently have no stake seems a good use of time, must have a lot of it.

And going by your previous 'chart reading' predicitons (LOL) e.g. 'ITV to 59' in October, if anyone listens to your advice they deserve everything they get.

Harwood own 5%, Mediclinic 24% - if it is just Harwood pushing their own agenda, how did they manage to use their measly holding to browbeat the board into doing a strategic review that, according to you, none of the other (much larger) holders are interested in.

I mean, it's all out there in the RNS - the review, the prospective sale, named interested parties... I take it you are privy to exclusive information?

Facts seem to be in short supply around here as of late, so here's one:

hxxps://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/spire-healthcare-group--spi/extension-to-deadline-under-rule-2-6-c-/9436758

18/2/2026

Discussions between the Company and each of Bridgepoint and Triton are ongoing and, to allow further time for these discussions to continue to take place, the Board of Spire Healthcare has requested, and the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Takeover Panel") has consented to, an extension to the PUSU Deadline.

Consequently, in accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Bridgepoint and Triton are required, by not later than 5.00pm on 21 March 2026, either to announce a firm intention to make an offer in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or to announce that they do not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline may be further extended by the Company with the consent of the Takeover Panel, in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

Just stick to what the company is worth versus what it is currently selling for? Instead of bringing in pseudo-metrics like 'this last share I had didn't get bought out' and 'your post history is suspicious' and 'the price action is disappointing'.

Nauseating, even those I happen to agree with. If you stop clogging up the boards with juvenile shyte then we can see the factual stuff as it arrives instead of having to scroll through the detritus of your egos.

JFC - if any of you knew what you were doing a lower price would be well-received...

Who knows whose motivation for doing what was? It is an unknown.

The knowns are:

Hospital portfolio valued between £1.4-1.5bn

~£300m of debt

£270-285m forecast EBITDA this year

Large shareholders are willing sellers

Long-term demand for facilities is only going to increase

Can currently pick all this up on the (demented) market for £720m.

Focus on the knowns.

Indeed; and a market that can't see beyond 6-monthly earnings should be renamed Valuetown.

At these prices you are effectively getting a free call on the £1.4bn freehold hospital portfolio, with all the long-term benefits that will bring. Cost-cutting already started, ageing population that is living longer and the NHS bursting at the seams. The UK market has shown time and again that, since Brexit, it doesn't know how to value companies until PE rocks up and shows them what they were missing.

Also, in my limited experience (9 years in UK shares), almost all companies I have had shares in which eventually got bought out experienced a SP slide of around 20-30% in the weeks/months leading up to the takeover being announced. Not saying that will happen this time, but this is my experience.

DYOR

Not 'sure' no; as you know, there are no certainties in the market. I just figured that at 33p in April the odds were enough in favour to put my money in. I'll leave it to the other guys to decide if they want to put theirs in.

In the meantime, I stick to giving opinions on shares in which I am actually invested, rather than go around scattergunning with no skin in the game.

Well...as of the most recent update (12 July 2025) MARS increased lfl sales 2.9% on a major tournament year (2024), off the back of EBITDA and profit rising 13.8% and 20.1% respectively as report at the half years in May with debt reduced. The estate is valued at £2.1bn, and the market cap is currently £233m.

If you're crying about having the opportunity to pick up the shares at that price you've in the wrong game.

I can't speak for all venues, but there are two near me: one is a city centre 'olde-style' pub that does majority of its trade catering to workers during the week and is full of drinkers at weekends with live music nights being particularly popular.

The other is next to an estate , near-full all week with families regardless of the weather because of the smart food and drink offers they do. They've done a very good job of attracting people who wouldn't want to take their kids to one of the other two pubs in the area, whose main attractions are the drug dealers outside. The fact that people from the area (who are the demographic you would expect to have been hit hardest during the past few years) are still filling up the Marstons venue pretty much daily is a good sign.

Lfl sales increasing vs a major tournament year (2024) alongside margin expansion and progression towards strategic goals (i.e. reduce the debt) against an economic backdrop of higher taxes, inflation, lower consumer discretionary spending and a shrinking drinkers demographic, is not for you?

Fair enough.

HY results on 13th May

Yodel.

Yes, because random whinges on reddit are the proper way to value a company.

*day of the Brexit vote