Member Info for shawz007

Another idea, some good quality oil is better than a lot of bad oil. Just drill a bit to the side and boom. Maybe this is being thought of as good news. Webinar to offer clarity perhaps.

Happy has declared he's off again for about the eighth time, but did grace us with the fact that he's holding off his latest analysis because his position here is too small.

I've got to be honest lads, I'm my darkest moments around 7.50am I was braced to reconsider where this will be at 3pm. Not so now. 90p.

yes, by 3pm a bounce to 90p

Pumped for the webinar. Boom Shake shake shake the room.

At least we're not Hammerson

Now now sunshine, let's not bandy about the fake news smear. Go to the flightstats website and the statistics section. Look at the graphs. You'll see the rough percentage of flights versus 2019 and last year and you can do a quick calculation to see that plays out to my numbers. These are global figures of actual flights. So I think rather stronger evidence than your anecdotal evidence of not going on your own business trips of late.

And what matters is flights, not whether the plane is full.

And as I said, you might be proved right in the very short term on hammerson. Well played if day trading is your thing. But long run it's not going to work out.

Odey has made a seemingly 'token' change not because it is so but because he's now set up a exit strategy whereby he'll reduce the short in a series of steps as the price hits those steps. One of those steps has been hit. Its a managed exit for him.

Good news MrSkipper, 3pm tomorrow is less than a day away.

They aren't here for a Suriname ride, nor do they have that sort of clout. The beauty is the asymmetric payoff.

No find, no big deal, perhaps on the day/week disruption, although far less than you think. Long term no difference to the share price.

Find, big deal. A sustained permenent re-rate.

Obviously the quality of a find matters too.

Anyway, I do enjoy your views. I'd rather they evolved then you went away.

The idea that Tullow's share price is 1/3 made up of a strike in Suriname is blatantly absurd. (quoting that it'll fall to 40p from circa 60p).

The market is used to disappointment. A Suriname duster would unlikely even register. Its priced in now. Hence a great upside.

all in one afternoon? I like your style

A few dreary days here. But fear not, I am here to cheer us on. Whatever short term iritations, and perhaps that was simply slightly burnt toast this morning, 90p is coming and 3pm is the time. Fuel to Burn. Roads to Drive.

Perfectly solid innings today. Take a breather. mix a ****tail.

Happy I love your approach, nudging that short up a few pence just as you are about to hit having to close it. Presumably if you keep nudging the stop loss up each time it will rapidly become rather more than 1% of a portfolio. Like the tired sweating drunk at the roulette table at 5am. We know how it ends. That said I enjoy your posts on position and market view. So keep it up!

In the words of Bowie, I'm happy hope you're happy too.

Unless you are Happy.

90p on the agenda today. 3pm.

So intrigued to be parachuted into that nugget of drama. What could they have done?

Commercial aviation is operating at something like 75% right now. Throw in all aviation and its higher still. What is surprising about circa spring 2020 is how little oil consumption fell considering everything else. In if there is continued short term dislocation we all know what's at the end of the tunnel. Demand, and increasing demand from those regions you cite. Only 1 in 5 adults has ever got on a plane. Getting that to 2 in 5 is going to happen across the next decade or so.

Meanwhile shopping centres. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. Their existance is on life support and that's going soon. Yes, they'll be survivors from the wreckage, in the same way, I dunno horses or valve manufacturers are not an entirely gone industry. But it's going to be so small and so niche compared to the past.

Where you may have a point is that in the very short term a lot of this doesn't play out and hammerson could enjoy a further dead cat bounce. But I'd get out quickly, if it happens at all.

Massive error. Shopping centres are never going to recover. There is a ready made better alternative to them right now that everyone is engaged with. Oil on the other hand is absolutely central to how the world operates. You're getting out of it at just the wrong time.

Unlike elsewhere, Tullow had a double shock in late 2019 and early 2020. Both issues are on the path to resolution. We have every opportunity to see a return to Tullow circa 2005 - 2013. Not Tullow 2015 - 2019. Bumps, yes, long term, no. Short term, 90p, 3pm.