Member Info for Sharpey

@fogthemogg - No it should be even higher. It costs Fres about $12 an ounce to get the silver out of the ground all in. So any price increase above that is pure profit (minus a bit of tax). Silver and gold at these prices for the year and Fres should be making £4bn profit. Now at £28bn valuation. That's a P/E of 7! Crazily low!!! BHP, Anglo and Rio are 10-14 P/E ratio!

This is wishful thinking from a bank that's traditionally shorted silver very strongly!

https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/44960/2026-01-13-hsbc-silver-price-forecast-2027-average-cut-to-57-supply-slowly-improves.html

Sorry my previous post should read:

So if western banks are looking insolvent because of shorting silver then you can bet WESTERN GOVERNMENTS WILL all be on the backs of the London and NY Metal Exchanges screaming, "invoke force majeure". Then silver will tank. The only think that might save us is Shanghai. Hard to manipulate a price that's based on physical delivery.

@NoelShempsky - yes I'm worried about skulduggery in relation to silver. We saw it in relation to the financial crisis, very rich and powerful people made what turned out to be very stupid investments, they get a slap on the wrist and bailed out. As I posted we saw it with nikkel. Many rich and powerful people made stupid trades hoping to cash in, got caught out, London Metal Exchange said, "OK we'll help you out. We'll use the force majeure clause to cancel the contracts so you don't lose out." If western banks have bet big shorting silver and will lose billions, potentially making them insolvent, and it could happen if we get to $200 an ounce plus depending on the volume of their shorts, western government's don't have the fiscal headroom to bail out the banks again! Most western governments are well north of 100% GDP debt levels. Sure Japan is on 250% but not all western governments have rich pensioners willing to lend them loads of money at rock bottom interest rates. So if western banks are looking insolvent because of shorting silver then you can bet they'll all be on the backs of the London and NY Metal Exchanges screaming, "invoke force majeure". Then silver will tank. The only think that might save us is Shanghai. Hard to manipulate a price that's based on physical delivery.

It points to a wider point. The rich and powerful screw up, the elite say, "Don't worry. We'll change the rules so you don't lose".

My worry is the London Metals Exchange could cancel contracts if the price goes crazy to protect the banks that have traditionally shorted silver, and may still be. They did that to nickel. Canadian bank TD Securities recently announced it had shorted silver with a price target of $40 an ounce. Pretty stupid imo!!!

https://www.stephensonharwood.com/insights/court-of-appeal-finds-for-london-metal-exchange-in-elliott-nickel-trade-cancellation-litigation/

@notlonggone - I think that YouTube video is fake news. Goldman Sachs and others were fined for platinum and palladium price fixing but not other precious metals.

On somes shares they're quite accurate. I try to look at over last 6 months are they showing a big difference between following the charts and just holding. GSCU looks like you can trade via the charts. I'm not convinced it works for FRES.

Silver still over $77 an ounce so I'm not worried. Technically the charts are indicating a sell but I think that's overblown. I might sell a few to temporarily put somewhere else that I think will rise more quickly than Fres given silver looks stuck at $75-80 atm.

BMW already have a contract with Samsung for these new batteries. Maybe Samsung will buy Fresnillo!!! They have a $650bn mcap. Everyone please post how much per share they'd have to offer for you to vote YES!!! I'm at £500!!! That's about £350bn cost. But they'd be getting silver at less than $20 an ounce instead of probably $200 an ounce and a good steady supply from their own mines.

In the video I shared it said if these new solid state batteries capture 20% of the new car market worldwide that's equivalent to the entire worldwide silver production per year. That's just for EV batteries. What about everything else??!! 🤯

Samsung have developed a battery that charges in 9mins for 900km of range but uses 1kg of silver! 🤯🤯🤯

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yjNgN7L5L0A

Despite what Trump wants the rest of world is going net zero. That requires huge amounts of electrification of energy that's gas and oil atm - heat pumps and EVs. China is going gangbusters on EVs. World electricity generation is new 30% renewables and still rising strongly. All of that requires loads of batteries which means loads of silver. All of that requires massive upgrades of cables and distribution networks which means loads of silver. Plus AI data centres need loads of energy which will be renewables so even more silver needed. And I'm pretty sure there's loads of silver used in the data centres themselves.

BTW - Just remembered I've got this in my living room display cabinet. Bought for £200 in the late 1990s.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/proof-sets/proof-50p-piece/gold-proof-1994-fifty-pence-piece-50th-anniversary-normandy-d-day-landings/

From Google AI:

Silver Price Hits $64 as Supply Deficit Enters Fifth Year, Prices ...

Yes, a significant and ongoing deficit between silver supply and demand is highly likely, with analysts projecting it for the fifth consecutive year in 2025 and continuing into 2026, driven primarily by surging industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics) outpacing constrained mine production and flat recycling, leading to substantial draws on global inventories. Estimates suggest deficits over 200 million ounces, creating a structural shortage where demand persistently outstrips new supply.

Why the Deficit is Happening:

Inelastic Supply: Most silver (70-80%) comes as a byproduct of copper, zinc, and lead mining, meaning supply can't rapidly increase even with higher silver prices.

Industrial Demand: Massive growth in solar panels, electric vehicles (EVs), and electronics (including AI infrastructure) is creating unprecedented industrial consumption.

Stagnant Mine Output: Declining ore grades and limited new mining projects mean mine production struggles to keep pace.

Flat Recycling: Silver recycling volumes haven't significantly increased to fill the gap.

The Impact:

Inventory Depletion: To meet demand, inventories in major markets (COMEX, LBMA vaults) are being drawn down.

Market Strain: This structural imbalance makes the physical delivery of silver increasingly valuable.

Outlook:

The trend is expected to continue, with reports pointing to substantial deficits for 2025 and into 2026, making silver's fundamentals strong despite short-term price fluctuations.

As I've posted before, $200 an ounce only gets us to the price of silver in 1980 when adjusted for inflation. And given demand is super charged since then by net zero and AI data centres this is very doable and a conservative estimate of future price imo. Add on China restricting exports $200 an ounce is very very doable. Remember it takes about 10 years to get a silver mine up and running and given silver was in the dumps until this year no one was investing in new mines over the last 10 years so don't expect a bump in supply anytime soon to damp down the price.

And to all those thinking of banking profits. I banked a 130% profit on FRES in the summer at £12 a share. I'm totally gutted!!!

Of course AIMO, DYOR and GLA!!! Happy New Year and happy investing!!!

Profits will hit £4bn at current gold and $100 silver price. That profit for current valuation is just a P/E of 6.25. Ridiculously low given precious metal miners are normally 10-25 PE. This could easily double if gold stays where it is and silver hits $100. With JP Morgan predicting $5k per ounce gold and some predicting silver could get to $200 an ounce this could go to £8bn profit and then it should be £160bn MCap (20 P/E ratio) and that means £217 a share!!!

https://www.fool.co.uk/2026/01/07/could-100-silver-push-ftse-100-miner-fresnillo-even-higher/

Lots of posts about valuations in the billions. Let's break 0.62p first!

20p would be a £1bn valuation. Seems very high to me!

Do you have a link for that price forecast?

I was just thinking that’s a huge difference in buys and sells. 97% of shares are buys. I can't understand why this isn't 100% up today! I've never seen such a difference!!!

@notlonggone - I had 1000 shares at £5.40 breakeven. Sold at 130% profit in June. I'm definitely crying into my beer!!!

Just accounting for inflation would mean a silver price of $200 an ounce to equal the 1980 peak.