RE: Loons30 Sep 2025 23:50
Standard for mining - operation is at the invitation of the government of the day - if the government wanted to revoke a license, or change the terms of security - they could...
Assessment of Risk here is (moderately) low for the reasons:
- This will be a project providing 10,000 jobs and likely to be given strong local support.
- Both local and regional governments stand to make handsome sums from their involvement in the project, so are likely to support it
- Local investment participation as a strategy is important because it applies pressure from connected wealthy parties within the country to support the project - we're talking multi-nationals and family offices
- Ethiopia is attempting to start a major new industrial mining programme, which will only take off if they support fledgling projects in the country now - so any destabilising factors could undermine future prosperity. The mine will become the single largest export in Ethiopia - which is otherwise mostly coffee, and has mostly artisanal mining.
- US backs the Ethiopian government, financially and politically, providing stabilising effects in the region.
At present, it looks good - and long may it remain so.
But of course the risk remains.
In the UK, for example, a ban on Fracking is political risk to oil & gas companies involved in the process....
The difference is, the Ethiopians desperately want this.
it was said it couldn't be done...
But then along came Harry....