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Longknife,
I agree with you. The best option at this point should be a focus on exports until common sense prevails at political level is Australia. An energy shortage leading to much higher gas prices for consumers will certainly sharpen political thinking.
Hopefully 2023 will be the year when the potential of our investment will finally come to life. As we have lots of time to daydream before anymore news of significance is available, I was wondering if anyone remembers the price appreciation table that POQ used to include in the company presentations around 2014/2015 ? . I have tried to locate it without success so if anyone has a copy, I would appreciate it being posted here. From memory the levels i think were $ 844 / acre and $ 4009 / acre.
I seldom ever posted to this board but I follow the board regularly and it has been a vital source of good and constant information on Falcon and the industry which has helped me stay the distance so far. I would like to thank all the posters for their valuable contributions over the years, in particular Newtofo, WW, Schlemiel, Origin and Poods to name just a few.
Hopefully 2023 will finally be our year with this investment.
As another long term shareholder who has acquired loads of patience over the years, I sometimes find myself day dreaming about my investment and potential returns.... Therefore, does anyone have the early valuation model which was used by POQ in presentations. It was based on $ per acre at different stages of E&P.
It would be interesting to calculate the potential share price using this model.
GLA
I believe this deal puts Falcon in a good position to be part of the accelerated development of the beetaloo and it appears the proration is designed to protect us shareholders from being taken out of the game totally by Tamboran/BS in an accelerated drilling program due to Falcons lack of capital to participate. If I am correct, this deal will prove to be a master stroke by POQ and our board while the push to finally develop the beetaloo is accelerated and we will hopefully finally reap the benefits in our sp.
Good luck all
https://www.thejournal.ie/eu-proposes-green-label-nuclear-power-natural-gas-5644153-Jan2022/
WW,
I get your point and I agree it can only work neatly for Origin and Falcon if this is spun off into a separate company for the Beetaloo E & P assets. However, I had not considered this as a potential option prior to the completion of the current farm out commitments. On reflection, this would make even more sense for all concerned and would provide a cash out option for Falcon shareholders wishing to exit and an option for others to stay the course for the E & P development.
By controlling the entire acreage, it would give Origin more flexibility to disperse or sell part of the acreage to fund the development of this massive project.
I am hoping we get some good news on the Kyalla flow rates in the week ahead to add further fuel to these thoughts !
GLA
WW
I too am hearing the same very good vibes from my sources and I am expecting the flow rate results in the next week.
In "pondering the possibilities" you referred to, I believe this makes perfect sense from an origin perspective to take control of the entire permitted areas with limited capital outlay through a stock issue/ swap with Falcon stock. However, I do not believe this could happen before the final 2 or 3 wells (depending ) are completed as to sell sooner could seriously undervalue our shares / share swap.
I am contemplating the week ahead and I hope the whispers I am hearing are reflected in the overdue flow rate results.
ATB
WW
That was the entire article I posted earlier. The 25 TCF is a bit of an anomaly in comparison to previous figure of 85 TCF mentioned for the Beetaloo. Therefore I presume this lower target volume is for the kyalla
GLA
Beetaloo win for Falcon oil
Falcon Oil and Gas and Origin Energy successfully completed drilling on a horizontal well at its Beetaloo shale gas prospect in Australia. It pulled a similar drill in December after operational challenges. It will now move to the critical fracture simulation phase. The partners are chasing a potential 25 trillion cubic feet of gas at Beetaloo.
2 of 2 Cont'd
The market also noted positive initial results at Santos' Tanumbirini unconventional well in the Northern Territory, which has the potential to become a major supply source for both Darwin LNG and the east coast.
Testing after a fracking program at the Tanumbirini vertical well yielded gas flow rates of more than 1.2 million cubic feet a day, beating expectations.
While the horizontal wells needed to prove up the play will only be drilled later this year, sources pointed to a rough rule of thumb that flow rates achievable from a horizontal well can be about 10 times higher than for a vertical one. Such a result of about 12 million cubic feet a day, if sustained, would confirm the Beetaloo Basin as a likely major producing region, they said.
Mr Gallagher said he wasn't going to "fly the flag too quickly" and wouldn't make any predictions on eventual flow rates. But he said the results so far were "well within the acceptable success criteria".
"If we get good results, it’s a very large play," he said.
"That would give us confidence to start thinking about gas that could potentially go to Darwin or over to the east coast."
Santos has also invested in a similar Armour Energy venture to the east, in the South Nicholson Basin.
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Angela Macdonald-SmithSenior Resources Writer The Australian Financial Review
Jan 22, 2020 — 10.06am
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Santos chief executive Kevin Gallagher has deemed the June half a "very important" one for the resurgent oil and gas producer as it builds on record annual revenues and production in 2019 to advance more than $13 billion of growth projects.
Mr Gallagher pointed to several big milestones targeted by the end of June, including the go-ahead on the $US4.7 billion ($6.9 billion) Barossa gas project off northern Australia, the start of engineering work on the circa $US2 billion Dorado project in Western Australia and a decision on approval of the Narrabri coal seam gas project in NSW.
Santos's purchase of ConocoPhillips' northern Australian business will boost output ths year. Glenn Campbell
"Those are three very significant growth projects for us," he said, adding he was also hopeful of progress in gas talks in Papua New Guinea that would allow a planned $US14 billion LNG expansion in which Santos is a minority partner to start engineering work.
"So a lot of big milestones; We've got to make sure we continue to focus on the core business [too] because that's what's generating the cash to fund it all."
Mr Gallagher was speaking to The Australian Financial Review after Santos reported a 28 per cent jump in production to 75.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) in 2019, and a 10 per cent increase in sales to $US4.03 billion. Free cash flow also reached an all-time high of more than $US1.1 billion as Santos lowered production costs to the bottom range of its guidance.
The increase in output came despite a 5 per cent dip in December quarter output from the previous quarter, which Santos put down to plant outages at Western Australian gas customers.
Revenues rose as higher volumes sold more than compensated for a 4 per cent dip in the realised oil price. Production costs were $US7.25 per barrel, down 10 per cent from 2018.
The record performance was helped by Santos's $US2.15 billion acquisition of Western Australian gas supplier Quadrant Energy in 2018, a deal struck only three months after it rejected a $14.4 billion takeover bid from private US firm Harbour Energy.
Santos shares, which have risen 48 per cent in the last 12 months, gained 0.8 per cent to $8.95.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Ben Wilson said the December quarter result was on par with expectations with "minor beats" on each key operational measure.
Mr Wilson said this March quarter would be particularly important with the expected completion of Santos's $US1.5 billion acquisition of ConocoPhillips' northern Australian business announced in October and the final go-ahead for Barossa.
Output and sales this year will be boosted by that acquisition, with Santos confirming guidance for total production of 79 million-87 million boe, including 6 million-7 million boe from the Conoco assets.
cont'd
WW
Gabor was asked about the size of casing used and he confirmed that full production size casing/tubing is used as standard and this is 5.5 inch tubing. He also stated that this is the same size casing that was used at the Amungee well.
On the flow rates mentioned previously, I understood from the meeting that 5,000 MMcf / day on a 3,000 meter horizontal was the minimum flow rate required to be considered a commercially viable well.
Gonoles, See the link attached with prices per acre in the marcellus - utica.
The prices vary across a very wide range and no details are included on the stage of development for each acreage sold. However, It is worth looking at the average prices at the bottom for each basin
https://mercercapital.com/energyvaluationinsights/ma-in-the-marcellus-utica-shale-2018/
GLA