RE: Strong buy8 Sep 2024 16:12
I am invested in the company at around ~30p, however, a few thoughts sprang up that make me think I don't have a good margin of safety. While the company is sitting on a comfortable net cash at around 65m according to the recent trading update, the net provision is still a whopping 44.7m. Net provision is non-cash accounting for future obligations but this will present future cash outflows, assuming their judgment is accurate. So, WJG will always have to have comfortable amounts of cash at any given point but a huge amount is to prepare for the cash expense of the remediation works.
Conservative calculation will remove the provision and cash outflow from the tangible net worth of the company.
Rough calculation:
Using HY24 figures, 132012 (equity) - 11326 (intangibles) - 44700 (cash outflow for net provisions) + 13000 (increase in gross cash per trading update) = 88986k tangible net worth
That translates to 34.7p.
Once the cloud over funding is over, another important point is the forward sales market and how WJG diversifies its income streams that's important. I would like to see directors coming up with more innovative funding and transaction structures.