Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Alex. Stop wasting your breath. This bulletin board doesn't drive the share price so even if anyone was listening to your rubbish, it wouldn't get the price down to where you want it.
You really think a $4m revenue contract with $1m-$2m GP is not significant?
You really don't understand how this ties in to the 50,000 connected units? That really is a newbie-level of ignorance. And even a newbie would know the answer to that if he'd done his research.
Some starters to help you begin to work it out:
1) No, SEE don't need to connect 1,000 units a week in FY19 to hit 50,000 units by the end of FY19. That would be true if SEE had no connected units at the end of FY18, which, of course, is far from being the case.
2) Fleet sales to date are mostly made up of a large number of end customers taking a relatively small number of units each which is why fleet has achieved such large growth without there being an RNS every week disclosing a large contract every week. So no, you don't need a large sale like this every week, you need to continue what has been happening already. However, large contracts like this are more than welcome.
As an aside (this bit is not for Alex): SEE have openly said that Fleet Gen 1 was not suited to very large fleet customers. Gen 2 increases ease of installation and reduce use of cab space so helps to open up the 1,000 unit- ish customers. There are potential customers with tens of thousands of units (eg FedEx) who I understand are remaining in touch with SEE that will be interested in moving once ease of installation improves further and there is more integration with the other in-cab tools those customers use. This could come with Gen 3 or with further cooperation agreements with telematics suppliers building on those already being implemented. This high demand from the massive customers is a good thing for SEE. It creates a high barrier of entry for potential competition. They are not going to be using anything picked up from Halfords. SEE are streets ahead of the competition and SEE have a massive head start on meeting the needs of these whales.
So I fully expect sales growth to accelerate now Gen 2 is on the market and I have absolutely no worries about hitting 50,000 connected units by the end of FY19 which, by the way, generates in the region of $2m/month of GP recurring for the life of the contract (today's is a lovely 5 years). And that will then be dwarfed once we start getting into the FedExs of this world.
Auto is much talked about and rightly so, but Fleet is very very nice.
Guardian Gen 2 is just hitting the market now and is easier to install and takes up less real-estate in the cab than Gen 1. This helps to secure the larger fleet contracts. This contract is for 850 trucks so is bigger than a typical Gen 1 contract. Should help pick up more of the smaller contracts too but particularly helps with the larger customers where the number of vehicles made installing Gen 1 quite a big undertaking.
Fleet is much under-discussed. Great as Auto is (and I have no reason to think that broker is overstating the case when they say Auto alone is worth far more than current market cap of the entire company), I think Fleet is going to be the bigger revenue earner for the next few years and Fleet margins are very nice too. Today's contract will be a small part of total Fleet revenue but on its own will be worth something like $4m with a GP likely between $1m and $2m. Short term, medium term and long term, I love the look of the Fleet business.
The burning (I like my pun) question, Alex, is "Why?"
Genuine question, not trying to be smart. From your previous posts you seem to have very little optimism about SEE. You are talking of strong competitor activity and doubting value of contracts already won. If you don't have belief in the future of SEE, why would you waste your time reviewing the detailed numbers including cash burn?
Are one of these the answer?
1) You do in fact have belief in the future of SEE and are considering going long. I'll take your posts at face value and assume the doubts you have raised are genuine...If this is the case, is there some "reason to be cheerful" that you have found and not shared?
2) You have found a way to short significant quantities of the share. IG are now telling me that they can't take short positions because they cannot borrow the shares. Not that I want to short.
3) You genuinely have nothing better to do than run numbers on a share in which you have no interest in investing.
This is a genuine question. From historical posting, you have shown yourself to be a bright person who does his research. You are making postings here which means you must want people to read them and take them on board (otherwise, why bother?). It will help me (and maybe someone else) engage with your postings and respond genuinely if we can get past the confusion around where you stand.
Polymer beads are captured by the system so are not released into the environment. Beads are re-used hundreds or thousands of times and then recycled.
The technology actually reduces plastic pollution because it reduces damage to clothes. One major source of plastic pollution is that clothes (including synthetic fibers) are slightly damaged every time they are washed, with tiny bits of those clothes coming off and being released with the waste water. A selling point of the Xeros system is that this damage is reduced which also means that the pollution released is reduced. This is on top of the energy saving, water saving and reduced detergent need with the system, all having a positive environmental benefit.
They are doing both
Finals irrelevant. Contract was signed but didn't commence before year end. Guidance was given that likely to commence revenue in 2018. I'm trying to find out how much that could be worth but haven't seen anything on that.
Disturbed by a few posts earlier today suggesting a 40p takeover would be acceptable.
Cenkos quote, With thanks to Seeing2020:
"We estimate that the automotive business alone is worth 12p at a discount rate of 19%, and with plenty of upside left in our assumptions. Furthermore, if this was part of a more mature company with a lower cost of capital of 10-13%, the valuation would rise to 30-50p, which demonstrates the significant strategic value of Seeing Machines' current unique position. We maintain our buy recommendation and 19p target price"
The level of the discount rate is critical in this calculation. For the uninitiated, the discount rate should be selected at an appropriate level to reflect the risk of the company underperforming the forecast. Every time a major contract is won, every time an important milestone is reached, concept is proven the risk of not achieving the forecast likely reduces, meaning the discount rate should reduce. Cenkos here are being conservative, as they admit by saying there is plenty of upside left in their assumptions. My personal opinion is that with risk-free discount rate at about 1% at the moment, 19% is being ultra-conservative and factoring in an unnecessary amount of risk. Their valuation using a discount rate of 10-13% appears more relevant. to me so their valuation of 30p- 50p FOR AUTO ALONE is more interesting, though note they have other conservative assumptions included in this beside the discount rate.
If auto alone is worth 30p - 50p ,and you have to add to that the value of Fleet etc (personally I think Fleet is the more valuable part of the business right now as it is further along in being developed, is higher margin and will be higher sales than auto for some time yet), and then you have to add a take-over premium....
I am amazed that anyone would even entertain thought of a 40p takeover. The only explanation I can think of is that they are simply looking at what they paid for the shares and thinking that 40p gives them a nice multiple. Well, yes, it probably does. But why sell for 40p if it is worth far more? Sure, selling out cheap and having the profit in the bank would be nice even if it is a smaller profit than could ultimately have been achieved, but isn't that what everyone is mocking Alex for having done?
If/when the share price gets to 40p, I will sell some of my holding to have the pleasure of the cash in the bank, but I certainly won't sell anything like all of it. Same as when we hit 11p. I'll be holding the rest for more. 7 years invested in SEE and counting. Nothing scaring me off yet.
Inventing & commercializing new tech in an existing market (eg Dyson vacuum cleaner) is hard. Even harder to invent & commercialize new tech when it is so revolutionary that there is no existing market so you cannot piggy back on what has gone before (eg Seeing Machines & Angle). Even harder when the application is medical and regulation etc is so tight, time consuming & expensive (eg Angle).
First invested in Seeing Machines in 2011 paying 3.5p/share. Share price August 2017: 2.8 pence. Never stopped believing in the tech and added more when I could (though also took some profit on the spikes). Share price now: 12.3p. Cashed in enough of my holding to recover all of my investment but still have a very large (for me) holding & continue to be confident.
First invested in Angle in 2013 paying 83p. Share price now 54p. Never stopped believing in the tech. Have started heavily increasing my holding over the last month.
This was always going to take a long time. Something I understood 5 years ago but understand much better now. Personally, I believe there is a high risk of the share price shooting up in the next 12 months which is why I am increasing my holding now, so as to not miss the boat. Perhaps the fund managers agree, given they have put up £12m with very little discount to market share price.
And sure, I have backed some duds too and there is no guarantee that Angle is going to do as well as I think it will. Personally, I'm proud to have been a long term supporter of a company with amazing tech that can make the world a much better place, reducing cost of cancer treatment, reducing pain of cancer treatment, increasing effectiveness of cancer treatment. I also happen to believe that financially, it will all have been very worthwhile too.
I don't care if you invest now or not. I don't care what happens to the share price this month. I am not invested for a 2p gain. I'm looking at the next 12 months and I don't mind if it takes longer. Stay for the ride or don't and, either way, good luck with your investing. I hope you find it profitable & enjoyable.
SEE tech is already in the CT6 but the chip is not. I think he is referring to the chip going into the CT6. I don't know if he is right about the chip going into CT6 soon. Although others have guessed the chip will be going into GM vehicles, I have not seen confirmation of this or confirmation of timing and I don't think this guy has any particular insight as his overall article is not completely accurate and not particularly well thought out. I would expect GM to switch to chip eventually but at the moment they are using non-chip and they may want to simply want to roll out what they have already developed and tested.
I know you helped him Seeing 2020, which was very good of you. You have always been generous with sharing your knowledge and research. This morning, Brucie was not saying Ford is news, just saying that some people might not know, which is fair enough given that Ford were not named in the RNS and there are plenty of people who don't read bulletin boards, don't research thoroughly or may be investing in SEE for the first time. Personally, I am a focused investor by which I mean that I invest in a small number of companies so that I have time to make sure I know them very well. However, the "wisdom" constantly peddled is to be diversified. Excess diversification can result in lack of time and lack of knowledge. I would wager that there are a few who have SEE as one of their many holdings and who don't look at the share price very often. These people too will be wondering what has happened to SEE when they finally notice the share price has had a nice move in the last couple of weeks. And it is only a couple of weeks since the Ford RNS. Keep up the good work, Seeing2020. I'm glad you are here.
Guys. Guys. We've been invested here a long time and have had time to get used to what an amazing opportunity SEE is. Imagine how you would feel if you were coming to SEE fresh, finding out everything for the first time. I've had more than 7 years invested in SEE to become hardened to its appeals but I'm still excited and evangelical. If I'd been in SEE for 7 weeks I'd be drunk on the potential. BruceyBonus - Welcome to the fold. For me, it has been a great place to be and I'm hoping it will become much much greater. I hope you enjoy the ride. Don't be put off making your posts - there may be old hands who sometimes feel like they are being taught to suck eggs but, at the same time, everyday, someone comes new to this board for the first time without much SEE knowledge so pointing out interesting things about SEE is worthwhile however well known they are in the SEE investor community. Good to help welcome new investors to the crowd as we should all welcome you.
Win-Win I've seen this sort of thing in the past. Half the time it was just to tie-in and motivate key people, which then worked successfully for the companies. Half the time it was done because of suspicion of imminent takeover activity (these things can bubble on for several months before becoming public) and wish to (i) ensure retention of key individuals for the new owners (which is good for the takeover price) and (ii) make sure that, after takeover, people who have helped you build the company to that point are "looked after".
You can "short" SEE through IG if you have a spread betting account with them. You can also use it to effectively go leveraged long. I'm sure there are other ways to short out there should the fancy grab you.
Given the nature of their business, I'm not sure there is such a thing as a small contract. This is good because if a contract comes it is likely to be massive. it is also part of the problem, it is much easier to get things moving, and customers/partners committed, if you can start small, prove worth and scale up. This has always been the nature of investing in QFI, it is a binary bet, boom or bust. Make a great fortune or lose everything. I am down a good amount on this like everyone else, but I don't hold with the anger that some hold. We all knew what we were investing in. It could still be a great fortune if one of the opportunities comes off though I am feeling as skeptical as anyone else after Maersk and KSA.
While neither confirming or denying your "delay", I would point out that Supercruise is not a Seeing Machines system. It is a system that has a Seeing Machines product as one (albeit vital) component. It would be conceited of us to assume that everything that does/doesn't happen with Supercruise is down to something that See (and our intermediate Tier 1) has/hasn't done. There are many suppliers involved as well as GM's in-house work, GM's strategies, competing projects at GM etc etc. Not saying you are wrong, just saying it is a bit of a leap to assume that we are the cause of everything that happens.
Hi Alex, When I've negotiated such contracts with suppliers in the past, I have made sure the bankruptcy clause includes my rights to continue using the suppliers IP etc, without their permission or charge, in the case of them going bankrupt. I would have also included practical measures in order for this to be possible, ie making sure I would have sufficient access to IP and know-how for an alternative supplier to pick up from the bankrupt supplier, supplying an identical product, without any need for input from the bankrupt company., including having necessary IP, toolings etc placed in escrow. I am a much smaller fish than GM and I would be very surprised if they had been careless enough to not properly protect themselves from a supplier hitting the wall. I would expect them to be able to continue to execute their plans. But, everyone makes mistakes.