RE: Oh My Days18 Mar 2021 23:12
TREND CHANNELS - The Dow crashed out of it's 2019 trading channel which it recovered to trade into during November with the lower channel extending to 33k into the end of 2021, and the upper channel to 35,500 thus implies to expect the Dow to trade within this channel during the year. Whilst the newer channels since the Pandemic crash low extend to a range of 34,000 to 35,000 into the end of 2021.
So a bullish 2021 should see the Dow trade between 34,000 and 35,500 during the year, with significant support at 30,000 during the first half of the year.
TREND ANALYSIS - The Dow continues to trend higher making higher highs and lows, and given the behaviour during the January correction there may not be much downside opportunities to accumulate into during the year.
RESISTANCE - Resistance lies at the 32,000, 33,000, 34,000 and 35k.
SUPPORT - There is heavy support between 29,600 and 30,000. I cannot see the Dow trading much below 30,000 during the remainder of 2021.
TRENDLINES - There are 2 rising trend lines off the post pandemic crash lows with the upper acting as short-term support and resistance and the second as key support for 2021, which implies that 30k is unlikely to break on any correction into Mid year.
MACD - MACD is neutral so supportive of a continuing bull run for a couple of months or so.
The seasonal pattern suggests after a pause in Feb, then higher into late April the correct from early May into late June followed by a volatile summer terminating in a swing low during September that should set the scene for a bull run into the Christmas Holidays with of course intra month volatility during October that tends to resolve to the upside just as the perma-bears crow their loudest about the market having topped.
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