Proposed Directors of Tirupati Graphite explain why they have requisitioned an GM. Watch the video here.
'Take profits on initial West Newton-2 results for Union Jack (UJO)'
Good balanced article on today's news. Google on the above title.
GLA
I think this is all largely out of JP's hands. The MG want Tendrara developed by a company with deep pockets be that shell/repsol or AN other. I think JP will ultimately be made to accept whatever is on offer although he potentially still has options of what to do with SM.
That said I think we are looking at 50p plus but none of us know the true value and none of us know what is in the data room. Personally I think there is more value in tendrara than our drill results have shown but the data room may be an Aladdin's cave of value to a major.
GLA
Trellis you know alcohol is a depressant don't you? Maybe that is why you always have the glass empty outlook?
GLA
It looks like the LSE data may be wrong. Many of those buys look more like sells.
Anyone on here think that LSE offer a good service or have I found an opinion we can all agree on?
GLA
Sorry Jarro think I have reduced it by a factor of 10 so 230,000 and 115,000 should be the figures
Although volume is very low the number of buys out strip sells by 3:1
GLA
According to JJ it was about £23,000 and they are reducing it to £11,500 but it's not clear how far down that road they are.
That is operational running costs only.
GLA
250 your figures are correct. At the FSC JP said things such as it was better than finding a dry hole and that it was a discovery (non-commercial) but he also said there would be no further work at TE10.
I guess the value of it is that it at least proves to some extent that the seismic and their theory is correct in identifying gas deposits. They are just struggling to get it to flow at commercial rates. So on that basis it is better than finding a complete duster.
GLA
SO - depending on how this goes we could all be on the Echo Falls.
Actually if it goes badly maybe steer clear of the Echo Falls, the name might remind you of JP too much!
GLA
Trellis I will take you up on your offer and we can decide which of us was closer to the final outcome.
In your analogy you forget that JP has friends at wetherspoons and he has already negotiated a market and supply chain for his wine, he has partners with one of the best corkers in the business and he knows he can sell his current £1,500 bottle and it will supply 60% of the French wine sales for the establishment. He has identified some New World bottles that he hasn't even opened yet. He knows in the cellar next door the new world wines are superb.
Would he still only get £1,500 for his cellar and his proven bottle of 1955 CMR?
I think he would get more, how much more is the question.
GLA
Trellis your dilemma is slightly different to JP's. I would say that he has already found one bottle of the 1955 CMR and knows the value of it. He has a cellar full of other bottles which is vast. He has done a quick inventory and found a few potentially nice wines but subsequent bottles he has opened have been corked.
He is marketing on the basis of a cellar of this size there can't only be one bottle of 1955 CMR.
If he was to sell his cellar would he accept less than £1,500? No he would want £1,500 minimum and he would expect a premium on the basis that in a huge cellar it is unlikely that this is the only bottle of fine wine.
Good luck with your wine sale and good luck to JP and us all.
SO - agree, I was typing my response to KTF and didn't see your comments.
GLA
KTF - I would much rather you were right than me on this one. It all depends how much they have been sharing data prior to the RNS on 22 May.
My hope is that the dataroom has been open for some considerable time and so the 22/5 RNS is really the alarm call to say the deadline is looming.
Negotiation of the SPA will take months rather than weeks so I would hope the deadline is very soon.
I would much prefer an early LE but I'm just trying to be realistic.
GLA
Trellis - With respect I didn't, it was one factor of motivation that I referred to and the first part of my posting referred to the value of about 27% of the company sold to SOU two years ago by a Moroccan sovereign fund. I would give more weight to that element than the second observation.
I would be happy for a more informed discussion if you have an alternative view or alternatively you can make some misogynistic Benny Hill type comment about your sex life?
GLA
Anyone want to estimate the timeline to the LE RNS?
At FSC JP said the first RNS that we would receive would be the recommended offer and any recommended offer would only be after the SPA had been finalised so that suggests to me it will be some way off.
If we work on the basis that the dataroom opened at the start of the month then I would expect it would remain open until at least 1st August as a deadline date. Then even if a preferred offer is selected by end August you are looking for minimum two months to negotiate SPA.
There are many more variables such as whether early access to dataroom was allowed, or early sharing of data, due diligence etc etc
So I would guess November realistically as my estimate.
Anyone have anything to contribute or know more about O&G industry. My experience is totally different sector.
GLA
Agree Trade. For me there are many things that point towards an LE of 50p minimum. OGIF gave up their share of the licences for a shareholding which at the time was valued at 50p (there is a clause that any LE price over 50p is shared between OGIF and SOU) so OGIF will want minimum 50p.
JJ also has options just below 50p so he won't want an LE below his strike price. 50p for the TE5 discovery plus all of the IP of the work that has been completed is a very realistic price in my opinion. anything over that that JP can get us is a bonus.
GLA
Petroleonline are you sure this is Omar you are quoting? It sounds just like BM.
GLA
I wouldn't disagree with you Bravo6, I think SOU have no choice in terms of time line. That doesn't preclude Sou structuring the sale in a tax efficient manner.
GLA
Yes item 3.4 of the permit says that they will need a variation to the permit if they wish to undertake a EWT.
So would they run the liner before they have that? And assuming the variation is granted does that require an RNS?
Anyone know how quickly the Environment Agency will grant a variation?
GLA
Bravo6 that was my point. You only need a tax efficient plan if you make money. Therefore implying that at least some sh would be making a profit and implying that the know they will be able to sell.
Personally I think JJ is a bit leaky with his language, hence the Malcy comment.
He also said yesterday that 'we have been planning this (the LE) for a long time.
GLA