Explains where we are8 Nov 2011 21:17
TGR: You continue to call junior gold exploration companies the “most compelling case” for success. As of Dec. 31, 2010, the companies on the Ubika 50 Index were worth a combined $15.3 billion (B). By Oct. 14, 2011, their combined value was down to about $14.07B. Why do you still believe in these companies?
VR: The basic principles have not changed. In terms of risk and reward, the junior gold space presents the highest reward potential, along with high risk.
What has happened in the junior gold space is that investors’ appetite for risk has gone down. The junior gold companies did very well after the 2008 meltdown; they had phenomenal returns in 2009 and part of 2010. In 2010, our index was up 99%.
This year, realization is setting in that the economy isn’t going so well, which creates aversion to riskier assets. Junior companies and small-cap companies get hit first. Gold was singled out because fund managers who made money in junior gold companies and are losing money in other things liquidate junior gold stocks first where they may still have profits. It is ironic that most investors, including the so-called sophisticated ones, would not stick to their winners. Rather, they sell their winners and take out money wherever they can. That had an impact.
Longer term, if gold prices stay higher—I mean $1,200/oz or over for the foreseeable future—interest in companies with good assets and the potential to advance toward feasibility and production will come back.